You read my remark and still feel the need to interject with “quotes”?
I’m really not in the mood for this.
After going through the trouble of a secret ballot, I don’t know why anyone would give someone outside the time of day. Just because they asked?
Yes, I think the whole idea of “exit polls” is an evil stupid idea.
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Don’t let reality get into the way of a good story.
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If you don’t see the problem with declaring an election based on exit polls, what can I say?
Meanwhile Reuters has updated their story based on actual results.
So now Merkel has to form a coalition with the FDP and the Greens? There was already just the tiniest sliver of distance between the CDU and the FDP, and the Greens in Germany (unlike their US counterparts) are fairly sane. This is not the end of the world, Germany is still proving to be more rational then France, the UK, and (of course) the US.
Thread:
https://twitter.com/casmudde/status/912004641134702592
I don’t know enough about German politics to judge the accuracy of that, but it seems sensible.
How does it work? If AfD is going to be the official opposition in parliament now, will there be a shadow cabinet and a shadow chancellor?
If nothing else, it’ll put a face on the international fascist movement who looks and sounds like a literal Nazi. If that doesn’t get everybody’s attention …
You were making dismissive remarks on polls which are quite surely very accurate predictions of the actual result.
The figures published by the Bundeswahlleiter at 5:25h local time are, btw, preliminary results.
But the figures figured figure.
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The shadow cabinet idea is a bit alien to German politics, but each party has spokespersons for specific subjects, most of which overlap with the responsibility of ministries. Those responsibilities are, however, reshuffled a bit with each cabinet. It will be a major point in coalition negotiations who gets which responsibility.
The AdD isn’t the sole opposition, and given that the SPD seems to be willing to go into the opposition as well, the somehow formalised position of the leader of the opposition should go to them, as far as I understand. Which is a good thing, since this means the AfD won’t chair the budget commission.
The coalition talks might be quite hard, since Bavaria has upcoming egional elections, and the CDU’s sister-party CSU and the Greens hate each other properly in public. If they would fail, there is a chance Germany will have to have new elections. A minority government is next to impossible, I think. Since no-one would want new elections, I assume the talks will end with a coalition. But there will be some falling-out. To make matters more complicated, the Greens would traditionally ask their party base, i.e. every single member of the party, to vote on the participation in a coalition.
The Federal Republic of Germany, it seems, will have some stuff to sort out domestically one way or another. Watch out for European politics, there might be some who might think this will leave an open spot on the agenda. (Notice, btw, that Öttinger was standing right next to Merkel during her first public reaction to the exit polls.)
Regarding the face of fascism, I am a bit sceptical. Even the AfD can’t say stuff Trump, Wilders, Le Pen and Farage could. Not to speak of Kaczyński. and Orban. But they will, of course, be in glee.
How likely is it that the Merkel conservatives will be reasonable in regard to making concessions to the Greens? They’ll need something to sweeten their base.
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Merkel has a pragmatic attitude. Which means she will react to the needs. Now, the point will be how the narrative goes: “the CDU/CSU lost many votes and needs to gain conservatives back from the AfD and thus be very conservative, and make no concessions to the Greens”, or “the CDU/CSU may have lost many votes but has the confidence of the majority still, and the duty to form a government to ensure a stable government sorting the mess out and re-gaining confidence by success through governing”.
The latter seems to be more Merkel’s style, but make no mistake: as of today, the question is who will be her successor as head of the party, and the face for the next election.
Short: she would, but her party may want her to be very hard.
Interesting times, eh?
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The narrative from the CSU people (and quite a few of the CDU) I saw on TV yesterday was very clear:
“We lost out to the AfD because we weren’t right-wing and xenophobic enough and we have to lurch massively rightwards immediately.”
Quite how that will sit with the Greens saying “We’re really concerned that the CDU is too xenophobic and right wing. We won’t agree to a coalition unless they reassure us that they will move a lot more in our direction”?
Oh, I don’t know. Looking at this lot:
Seems mostly exactly the same phrases and arguments.
The rise in the FDP is pretty interesting. After the coalition with Kohl they nearly disappeared, which should have been a cautionary tale for the Lib-Dems when deciding to join the Tories a few years back.
Frauke Petry’s walkout is also really something.
the CDU’s sister-party CSU and the Greens hate each other properly in public.
There is no alternative to the Jamaica coalition, so they will have to tolerate one another for the time being.
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I’m talking about the prevailing narrative. What the CSU said was pretty clear even before the election. We will see.
As @d_r said: there is no realistic other option. And the CSU will, I have no doubt about it, try to convince their voters that they swallowed no chalk, and no green toads. However, they still would lick some secretion of power and hallucinate later on about their vigorous fight and victorious battles.
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Could you explain the German colour symbolism of the Jamaica coalition? Black and red are anarchist and socialist to me, but I assume that isn’t the case here.
Jamaica-Koalition:
Black Yellow and Green.
Black (CDU/CSU)
Yellow (FDP)
Green (Green)
Red would be the SDP (middle/right Left).
Die Linke (leftish Left) is I think officially also red but to differentiate them from the SPD, they get a rather fetching pink/purple.
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Okay…so black = conservative, yellow = liberal?
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??
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Yup.
Although in an amusing example of needing to be careful with assuming that the names of party’s have anything much to do with their policies, the CSU is the Christian Social Union and is by far more conservative than the already rather conservative, Christian Democratic Union.
The CDU and CSU are in a more or less permanent coalition under which the CSU promises not to stand anywhere but Bavaria and the CDU promises not to stand in Bavaria.
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The Liberal Party of Australia have always mostly been Tories in disguise, and now their right wing are slowly turning into fascists. Our actual liberals were the now-deceased Australian Democrats (which began as a split from the left wing of the Liberal Party).
The supposedly democratic socialist Australian Labor Party are now a mix of social democrats and neoliberals. The Australian Greens are socialists, but of a decidedly non-revolutionary character.
The Liberal Party are in a similar permanent coalition to the CDU/CSU thing, with the National Party (which used to be the Country Party). The Nats are a socially conservative agrarian party, but these days they’re increasingly just the rural wing of the Libs.
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