I don’t know that it’s the streaming consensus, so much as the habit Netflix has gotten into.
Cause this whole original content on streaming services thing is pretty new, and Netflix has been called out as an outlier for doing things this way. The other thing is Netflix is also increasingly criticized for having nothing to watch, and there have been reports of a customer retention problem. Their overall subscriber growth has started to taper fast, and a significant portion of the growth they’ve seen the last 5 years has been in developing markets.
Cause the thing is, and places like HBO found this out a long ways back. New shows bring in new subscribers, but long running shows are good for keeping them around. Which is why even Netflix bids so hard for old, long running sitcoms (though I have a whole different spiel on why this is stupid and the algorithm is lying to them).
Apparently Netflix’s base is becoming something of a revolving door, large numbers of people only subscribe for those headline series then cancel. HBO had issues with that as well, pre-streaming. A big way they dealt with it was keeping well liked but low watched series around for a good long while and re-running them regularly. So there was always something good to watch.
Netflix has an issue on that front. Frankly a lot of their money and effort was put into just filling space. They have dozens and dozens of reality shows you’ve never heard of. I mean look at these lists. The vast majority never make past 1 season, and the vast majority of them probably weren’t worth the time they got.
This also causes issues on the ancillary revenue and transmedia front. You’re not going to sell a ton of Witcher junk, if The Witcher is gone in a season or 3. You’re not getting a Star Wars grade media empire out of 2 seasons of Fate: The Winx Saga. It all represents a long term back catalog issue, not only has Netflix spent a lot of time the last few years with “nothing on”. But 20 years down the road it’s a bigger problem still. It’s a lot of money spent on things that have little to no value 6 months from now, but are still crowding up the main page years later.
They had very little competition on this front till recently. There aren’t a ton of steaming venues who have been doing original material long enough to have a show on for 7 seasons. Hulu barely did original programing, neither Apple nor Amazon can get their shit together and haven’t actually produced too many shows. But WB/HBO and Disney both hit it hard on launch. With much deeper, better back catalogs.
And I think you can see that in their recent moves. They renewed The Witcher for 3 seasons before the 2nd was even complete, they’ve been saying they expect at least 5 seasons out of it.
Compared to their past approach, where shows sometimes sat for a full year before even getting a renewal that’s a large change. Something like Glow sat in limbo for a hell of a long time before the pandemic ever came along to trigger a cancellation.
See this is the very first time I have heard of this.