Magical History Tour

A point was made in an article posted by @chgoliz about instability and its cost to monied interests. I think the article missed a key point: instability is a measurable cost and if you have the option to inflict instability, you inflict cost. That infliction is far more a privilege of monied interests and can be really hard to pin down.

Example: gas station prices fluctuate in my area by 7% a day, easily. The fluctuation alone is going to earn the oil companies a profit.

We have a good gut feel for this kind of cost, but it rarely comes into classical “NPV” economics.

Example: tell your kids that the 10:30pm WiFi cutoff time will now be a uniform random time between 10:00pm and 11:00pm. Try to tell them that, on average, it’s the same. Watch them not believe you for reasons they can’t quite articulate (and certainly not articulate politely). :grin:

My impression is that it’s rare for anyone to account for it when looking at how exposure to uncertainty costs triggers historical unrest. I would imagine that to be a hard variable to put in Hoyer et al.'s databases, but I have to wonder how these Seldon-esque psychohistory efforts might improve their forecasting of unrest, and improve the case for social change, if the cost were included in the measure of inequality.

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