Which is why my first post noted that even back in the pre-measles-vaccine era orders of magnitude fewer people died of measles than died of the flu in this country.
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But there are two factors that further complicating matters.
First, there is the different rates of effectiveness of the vaccines. As I understand it, the measles vaccine is about 97% effective while the flu vaccine varies considerably (CDC estimates 40-60%) depending on the strain that happens to be going around. Last year the vaccine was estimated to be only 10% effective against the dominant strain here in Canada. So even were everyone to get the flu vaccine a very large number of people would still fall ill with the flu certain years.
Second there is the issue of getting the shot every year. The measles vaccine you get twice, usually when you are young. Maybe you might need another booster later in life, but that’s it. The flu keeps changing and so you need to get the shot every year. Not only do people not like getting jabs, but there is some evidence that frequent vaccination may lead to a reduction of the vaccine’s effectiveness. Canadian researchers have observed reduced immunity in those who have had a history of regular flu vaccination.
To be clear – i am not arguing against getting vaccinated against the flu, but it’s a different sort of vaccine than the measles vaccine (just as the flu is a different sort of ailment than measles).
This.
When my wife was pregnant with GirlChild, our widely divergent genetic backgrounds were a big plus, making most of the genetic diseases very much not likely. We were still offered amnio, but at least our Dr. was open about the stats, and we elected not to risk death to test the unlikely possibility of any of the standard disabilities or diseases being present (as the statistical chance that a pathological state was present was dramatically lower than the testing procedure itself causing a problem).
… and the elderly.
…and the immunocompromised…
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It’s not the white guy but Google? Amirite?
Ok, let’s take the low end of that estimate and assume for the sake of argument (and simplified math) that if almost everyone got the flu vaccine last year that would have reduced flu cases and flu deaths by 10%. Given that 80,000 Americans died of the flu last year, that would have prevented around 8,000 deaths. Per the CDC, in the last decade before the measles vaccine was introduced an average of 400-500 Americans died annually from measles. So the lives saved by that single year of near universal flu vaccination would be equivalent to 16-20 years worth of pre-vaccine measles deaths.
But your second point about the evidence of over-vaccination possibly reducing effectiveness over time may be valid. In principle that’s not unlike other bugs evolving resistance to antibiotics.
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Agreed. I guess I was unclear in my phraseology. Comparing measles and flu in the context of vaccination is largely apples and oranges. Even in a bad year, it is better to vaccinate than not for flu, but the variability makes it tough to make generalizations.
Slightly pedantic, i know, but the variability in vaccine response in flu is not due to the bug adapting to the vaccine, but to having to try to predict a year in advance what strains will circulate. If the match is good, the vaccine can be quite effective, on the order of 70% or better. If the virus drifts (a minor genetic change) or shifts (a major genetic change) the effectiveness is compromised, but we don’t know that until it is too late to change. Hence the ongoing search for the “universal” flu shot. Influenza mutates so rapidly that the 97% effectiveness we see in other shots is unlikely to ever occur.
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No joke: Your comment should be included in the synopses of all outbreak reports.
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You know, few things anger me quite so much as the willful ignorance of the anti-vaxxer crowd. Due to an allergy, I can’t have most vaccines, including MMR. I’m not talking about whether the vaccine is gluten-free or low-carb; I’m talking about anaphylaxis and almost certain death. For that reason, I’m entirely dependent on herd immunity to keep me safe from childhood diseases, which can be even worse in adults. When herd immunity breaks down, people like me pay the price.
The anti-vaxxers are creating a situation where MY protection from those diseases is compromised because they’re willfully ignorant and stupid by choice. So, for everyone who thinks there’s no harm in not vaccinating, in the words of Cee Lo Green: Fuck You.
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This is exactly what I was referring to as the neo-eugenics segment of the antivaxx movement. These folks think that we would be better if the “weaker” genes (never their own, of course) were removed. I would suggest that they consider removing themselves to some safe space where they might breed their superior genes in safety from potential contamination by us inferior sorts. May I suggest Venus? (See “March of the Morons” since we seem to be doing sci-fi references lately!)
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“Of course people would say that,” says the dismal part of my brain that hates humanity.
God damn eugenics. It’s always wrong.
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