Originally published at: https://boingboing.net/2020/08/26/my-fascination-with-these-conf.html
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go-first dice seem magic to me in much the same way: https://www.theguardian.com/science/alexs-adventures-in-numberland/2012/sep/18/puzzler-go-first-dice
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Took me a second to understand that “beating” the rolls means getting a higher sum.
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It makes sense when you look at all the faces of each die and see how each only has two numbers, and that the the values selected for each die give one a slight advantage over another but not both: red beats black because 4 is larger than 3, and the red die is mostly 4’s versus black’s 3’s. But yellow will beat red because it’s equally 5’s and 2’s, which also gives it a disadvantage against black’s 3’s and 6…
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Does it? I think it just means getting a higher roll. That’s a “win” and you have best out of 7 or 11 or something.
If you used sum over a series of rolls they’re all equivalent
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Ah… you’re right. So it took me more than a second to misunderstand. “Beat” is higher score. Got it 
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Yet another demonstration of the weakness of the Bayesian interpretation.
Just cough up how many 20-sided die we have to print at a time, ya supercharger dealer for a statistical mechanic. Where were you when discussing non-Euclidean distancing for students at (the McSweeney’s take on) Miskatonic University classes?
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Do you remember gerrymandering? Now it’s back, in dice form!
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This set is the set with fewest alterations from the norm:
- A: 1, 1 , 3, 5 , 5, 6
- B: 2, 3, 3 , 4, 4 , 5
- C: 1, 2, 2 , 4, 6, 6
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If you roll all three sets, one set must beat the other two.
If my maths is right, red will beat both yellow and black about 35% of the time, yellow will beat both red and black about 42% of the time, and black will beat both red and yellow about 24% of the time. (Which ties in with the probabilities given in the article: if yellow beats red 7/12 of the time but black beats yellow 7/12 of the time, then yellow will beat both red and black 7/12 * (1 - 7/12) = 35/144 ~= 24% of the time.)
This could also be called Fuzzy Rock, Paper, Scissors.
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