Myanmar: Ongoing Updates

1 Like
2 Likes

5 October
Good news-ish. The Cardin/Meeks BURMA Act bill has been introduced. Please call senators and congress members to endorse and co-sponsor. If you’re in California we’re doing pretty good on both fronts. We need more help from Senate GOP. It is historically a non-partisan issue.

Yeah, you’d think they’d be so proud of catching her red-handed that they would want to show the world a transparent process. I expect it is being recorded so they can crank out isolated excerpts later.

Great article.

5 Likes

9 October 2021
There’s a rumor out that Sean Turnell may be coming home. I am sure it is false, am chasing it down and asked the originator to explain. It’s false.

Some internal conversations here, wondering what you think. The NUG does not possess any real “levers” for formal international recognition as Myanmar’s government, but no one really wants to acknowledge the coup regime either. The Meeks/Cardin bill (really Meeks, as I think we’re waiting on the Senate version) really downplays the NUG, almost to a damaging extent.

But, we don’t want to lose the whole thing in debate.

Should there be a push to add stronger endorsement of NUG recognition anyway? It is one of those things the would be congress/senate sending a signal internationally but basically knowing that Biden cannot invoke it.

As an example, one house of the French parliament has endorsed NUG. The French foreign minister says they recognize nations and not governments - so it will go nowhere but it is still a signal to the free world.

2 Likes

Bangladesh has faced a lot of pressure and criticism on the Rohingya refugees. In the case of the recent assassination, they are cracking down.

Top echelon militant leaders of this group are still in Burma. But, a great many Rohingya in the camps and abroad are celebrating these arrests and very thankful to the Bangladesh authorities for taking action.

Senate GOP are playing games. They refuse to cosponsor. They may be miffed about the process, control of the bill or something else entirely. Possibly they don’t want to piss off Chevron. It is a shame, because there has historically been strong bipartisan support for human rights initiatives in Burma. On the bright side, they don’t intend to block it and many will vote for it, but it would send a stronger message if they’d cosponsor.

2 Likes

15 Oct 2021
The person I know has been held for a month without acknowledgement.

And this is a shocking codification of what was probably already a de facto policy:

ASEAN is potentially about to stub their toe even harder on Myanmar. With good intentions. They are talking very seriously of not inviting Min Aung Hlaing; however, they still intend to bring someone “non-political” to represent the country. This presents an impossible situation. Anyone who has not involved themselves in any way on either side will be under tremendous pressure and just to attend may be to risk their life. Something can be easily misinterpreted or reported back to the military. They amended/rewrote laws after the coup which can punish people for “making false statements” - which as members of this BBS and society in general, you know can be quite subjective. Article here, anyway.

It really would have to be someone who doesn’t need to return to Myanmar. So, likely candidates are non citizens of the country who maybe haven’t been there in some time. No one who escaped after the coup can be considered “non political.”

3 Likes

18 Oct 21
I think I’ve talked before about the prisoners and how the regime saves them up for future horse trading with them. ASEAN shutting out Min Aung Hlaing is a severe rebuke. Not being seated at the UN also basically means nobody thinks he is or should be running a country.

So now, they regime says they’ll release 5,600 some odd political prisoners who never should have been taken, and who likely have lost years of their lives to trauma, malnourishment, torture and other health threats that go alongside the inhumane treatment meted out to most if not all of them.

Tom Andrews replies:

To anyone who’s gone a round with a Burmese military leader, this is the only right response. Yes, it’s better that they are released. No, it is not a “positive development” that means the regime is suddenly open to the idea of stepping down.

And what about the rest of the prisoners? Here’s the AAPPB latest.

I do hope they’ll let Sean Turnell go back to AU, release my relative to return home, and stop with the kangaroo trial of DASSK.

My team is talking with several more congressional offices this week.

4 Likes

Above, I should have included Danny Fenster as a hopeful release as well as the journalistic partner of Nathan Maung. In a heart wrenching move, the junta released Maung who is a US citizen while continuing to detain and abuse Hanthar Nyein, a Myanmar national. It is not clear to me yet whether Hanthar was among the journalists released.

What has happened, I learned in heart-wrenching testimony this morning, is that families are learning for the first time of deaths of their loved ones that may have occurred while in custody months ago. One was a doctor. Here’s another:

We’re also learning that at least ten prisoners were released and re-arrested within hours.

I think I’ve mentioned how they’re now taking family members of people with warrants who are in hiding. In Mon State, they have now taken a 94 year old woman, in hopes that her son (an NLD leader) will turn himself in.

Finally for today, oy vey.

3 Likes

20 Oct 2021
Today was a holiday in Burma. Embassy was closed. Troops have been massing near the anti-regime strongpoints of ethnic towns and there are overflights of jets and gunfire heard at midnight. In recent weeks entire villages have been burned down. in a Christian Kachin area, 8,000 of the town’s 10,000 people fled into hiding. There is now fear of unprecedented violence at the close of the rainy season which is coming in days. In Kachin State they are marching peacefully by candle light.

Note among those re-arrests, this was at a prison in Meiktila where they had only released 38 prisoners. 11 were taken back in custody. Ten NLD members and one elected member of parliament.

I don’t really trust news sources on numbers of released unless/until those numbers are confirmed by AAPPB. Some confusion on the numbers too. Based on one reading, that announcement of 5000+ releases may have been misinterpreted from a carefully worded statement with exactly that intent. >4000 may be “having charges dropped” but that could include people on the run or people who didn’t even know they are being charged. The reason: in a move toward deeper opaqueness and having disputable numbers between themselves and AAPPB, the regime amended the due process laws no longer requiring themselves to issue warrants in March.

See where it flatlines? The number had been 1,989 since early April. That recent dip would account for only a few of those original warrants being removed. Also note in this graph how the total number of arrestees continues to climb. The night before this festival, nineteen youth in Wae-Kyun Ward, Dawai who were preparing flowers for their town ceremony were abducted by the military.

But my main point here is, that number the regime is putting out there about thousands being released or forgiven may be totally misunderstood. There may be thousands of secret warrants that they’ve decided to drop and mashup with a much tinier number of prisoners they will be releasing. Time will tell. For the moment, little progress is documented. As a kind of baseline, check out the Oct 16 numbers to compare to the above (look at “total arrested” and “still detained”):

“Progress.” Not really.

4 Likes
5 Likes

Excellent piece. Tom Andrews’ line, again focusing on 1) money, 2) power and 3) legitimacy is so clear and perfect, we’ve been citing it as the wrap up in our talks with congressional staffs.

24 Oct 2021
Mass Bombings by Democratic Forces
Odd that this is dated on the weekend, Oct 23-24. My guess is the goal was to cause defections and actually minimize casualties. Mass bombings by pro democracy groups. I have seen photos of the bombs being assembled and am sure glad I don’t have to resort to trying to safely build bombs crouched on a dirt floor with no protective gear… I also know that bomb builders have been injured, in one case trying to remove excess gun powder from a pan ignited it and caused severe burns to multiple people. They have been encasing the gunpowder in concrete, what looked to be molded in 2-liter plastic bottles, with remote detonators. They have on Oct 23 and 24th bombed military councils in the regions of Bago, Mandalay, Sagain, Magway, Yangon and Ayarwaddy. I am going off of FB translate which frankly SUCKS. But will try.

Sagaing Region: Up to 15 killed which might include a general. Numerous injuries including one Peoples Defense Force (PDF). Bombings at multiple sites. Six bombs in one location injured three.

Irrawaddy: 1 killed, 3 injured. PDF bomber killed.

Magway: Attack at 5:54 am Saturday with one injury and 8 am Sunday. Sunday deaths unknown.

Bago: Governor’s office. Audio bomb at multiple administrative offices, no casualties. Bomb in Bago City, casualties unknown. Another 5pm Saturday @ Municipality office in Tharyarwaddy District Kyopinkauk Township.

Mandalay: 2 bombs and possibly 5 other bombs, injuries unclear.

Yangon: 3 bombs at a car line company. Locals say 24 bombs have been exploded and casualties unknown yet.

On another note, remember how I described my crazy way of meeting the famous 88 gen leader Jimmy? I think you can click here to get to it:

They got him. Facebook reports indicate he was shot, taken to the hospital and may die. Nilar Thein, his wife, is a significant figure (perhaps the most high profile woman of Gen 88). I had thought she had a warrant as well but can’t find the info.

Update: It appears he’s in the hospital and conscious but still in a tough place medically speaking.

Also stumbled across this.

I would only roughly translate the humor. Monks are not “supposed” to be involved in what I call human rights and what Burmese call “politics.” The Saffron Revolution was different: that was, for them, a response to a specific challenge the regime’s actions brought upon the religion. For now their lack of involvement indicates that the chief monks are saying not to do any of this. So this may be done with a bit of humor in mind and is definitely taken that way.

2 Likes

1 Nov 2021
This may go somewhere, or nowhere.

He may be able to broach some topics with the regime where others have fallen short. His split with DASSK was so acrid, although it had to do with the Rohingya, the coup leaders may decide that “the enemy of my enemy is my friend.”

They are laying low about any talk of getting Americans released, but this happens to be a special area of focus for the Richardson organization and there are excellent people there.

I’m remembering Chris Rock’s routine about Jesse Jackson succeeding where the official channels failed to get hostages released elsewhere: “You really want to get revenge? Release them to ME.” The most well known American being held is Danny Fenster. He just had his bail hearing a few days ago. Justice delayed as the judge has reportedly suffered a broken arm. The next hearing is Nov 3. I suspect this has something to do with the timing of this trip.

This appears to be a jointly led trip, Richardson and a former US Ambassador to Indonesia. So, there are regional implications here after ASEAN had uninvited Min Aung Hlaing to their latest summit.

More about the Richardson org and this area of expertise:

It’s a long video but shows what a special role they play as (perhaps) unofficial partners to the official US diplomacy channels.

I may keep updating as I remember things I forgot. 79 year old NLD member Win Htein has been given a 20 year sentence by the kangaroo court for “treason” which one charge levied for opposing the treasonous coup.

5 Likes

3 November 2021
Crap. Bail denied. Charges added.

[edit] That new charge? “…under a catch-all provision that calls for a prison term of six months to five years for violating visa conditions.” So basically, if you overextend your visit, they want you to stay in the country longer?

Richardson has now met directly with the coup leader Min Aung Hlaing. This may raise hackles in the short term and studied in political science classes in the future.

4 Likes

Military Juntas do that. Just ask Peter Greste.

Curious. I didn’t find anything about him overstaying his visa. That was the charge just added to Danny’s case (I’ve clarified that now). It would be interested to know if this has happened elsewhere. Normally, overstay your visa, they simply kick you out of the country.

I meant more that they tend to arrest reporters, foreign or domestic, on transparently stupid charges, to send the message that anyone who tries to “be a reporter” can and will be disappeared into the legal system.

Greste was lucky that while Egypt’s Junta was subject to sufficient external pressure to effectively release him. (Possibly because Egypt really needs that tourist income.) The Junta in Myanmar simply doesn’t care.

They generally don’t care. I haven’t said much about this before, but in terms of pure numbers, the death count is lower than say in 1988 when it was in the range of 8,000 to tens of thousands. That is only in reference to attacks on the Bamar population in the cities. Changes in tactics may have coincided with bad press. Killings fell off after there was so much coverage of the killing of small children. Some of that fall off (esp. in the border areas - non-Bamar) may have also coincided with the rainy season. Now we’re entering the dry season and they are burning down entire towns in the so called ethnic border areas. In Chin State, in response, the young people are training for battle. Men and women:

With respect to journalists, to be fair, DASSK did the free press and the NLD’s reputation no favors by backing the junta’s arrests of journalists herself.

4 Likes

7 November 2021
So yeah it did go somewhere. And there are US citizens being held that few people know about. Aye Moe, at center below, worked for Richardson, and they were able to get her out. This may be a test case for future exchanges.

As you can imagine, the visit is not without controversy. Expect more info in the coming days and also a bit of opaqueness which always surrounds visits of this type.

4 Likes

8 November 2021
And yeah. Two outspoken Burma human rights leaders from way back have now criticized the visit. Richardson told one reporter that he didn’t even inquire about Danny’s case. That IMO should be explained, and publicly. I’m sorry I can’t report more yet.

For the most part, today’s news is all about the one year anniversary of the election that would be nullified on Feb 1. Lots of statements by concerned leaders and lots of pleading by victims… so reminiscent of the unheeded call so many months ago by the people in country for the UN to invoke Responsibility To Protect and, you know, do something.

Among other things, I noticed in the UN Secretary General’s statement today: “Less than half of the $385 million required under the Humanitarian Response Plan and Interim Emergency Response Plan launched after the coup has been received.” I know their initiatives are underfunded but this is an opportunity for me to learn more. I don’t know how they budget and commit other nations to contribute. Because… maybe a public reckoning is in order, if nations had made commitments and not followed through. And the humanitarian needs are pretty dire.

Ahh and we’re learning quickly. Terrific overview, complete with bar graphs here.

2 Likes

9 Nov 2021
UN Special Rapporteur for Human Rights Tom Andrews is pressing hard for UNSC consensus to block all arms sales and transfers in meetings this week.

There is very deep concern that the junta will unleash the full range of methods they used in Rakhine/Arakan State, in the other so called ethnic border areas causing the same kind of massive refugee influx into each of Burma’s neighbors. Burma borders Bangladesh, India China, Laos and Thailand. Additionally, seafaring refugees have already been landing throughout the island nations of SE Asia.

Particular attention is being paid to the massing of troops and firebombings already occurring in Chin State which has a large Christian population. Here’s a town in Chin State before and after the attacks of October 29th, 2021.

1st image from October 2020. 2nd image obtained Nov 6 2021.

The regime is saying “it wasn’t me” and that these people burned down their own village. I’m pretty sure they said this about the Rohingya too.

The regime exploits both ethnic and religious differences to divide and conquer. Expect future propaganda about missionized Chin representing a neo-colonial threat, consistent with the Tatmadaw rhetoric on anyone opposing it since 1962.

In their anti colonial language, as an activist from abroad I would be characterized as an “external destructive element” wielding in-country “internal destructive elements” like an “axe handle”.

English language billboards going back decades were aimed at the outside world.

Here is the softened version of that rhetoric from the state owned newspaper as they were moving toward the shared power “democracy” in 2011:

Another in this deeper dive on their paranoia by Burmese-American journalist Aye Min Thant:

This repeated “crush all those” line always reminds me of my dear friend Conan the Barbarian.

Addition. Almost forgot:

A longer quote reveals that Richardson was told by the State Dept. not to bring up the Danny Fenster case. So, particular to that case, we need answers, but perhaps not from Richardson.

I had, I’m glad to say I suppose, not shared a Mizzima article on the visit. They received a very strong rebuke for spouting Covid 19 falsities and took down a tweet then slightly overhauled the article but not the still-intact headline “…as pandemic subsides.” There is no reliable way to source ANY medical or mortality stats from Burma. Consider that the regime was removing bodies during funerals to do their own autopsies and change causes of death. What I do know is that there were 3,000 deaths from Covid in its first year, the coup occurring Feb 1, 2021. Since the coup, the official number shot up beyond 17,000 within about 6 months. People suspect it is much higher.

Finally (perhaps, as I keep adding to this), hell of a thread here on the democratic forces assassinations of coup regime administrators and informants (“Dalan” in Burmese).

5 Likes