10 Sept 2022
If youâve followed all of these you probably get that I occupy a unique perch in all of this. Itâs becoming difficult and thereâs something to be said for spending fewer hours digging through horrible stories and choosing links that may contain some insights.
For today, an historic reminder that much of what messed up Burma in the first place was the British Empire. The legacy has clung to the nation and is still leveraged by a military steadfast on preventing any form of colonial control from ever again asserting itself there. In the mid-1990s, fifty years after British soldiers were last seen, remote Karen, Mon and Tavoyan villagers encountered a Burmese military accompanied by French Total workers. In human rights reports, the villagers reported seeing âEnglish.â
On news this week, the post-colonial question returns:
I donât know the person who posted this, but coincidentally, Iâm advocating for a descendent of a court jeweler of Burma.
12 Sept 2022
UN Recertification - What Will Happen?
The main events to track right now are the pending UN recertification process and something I wonât get into here which is the current state of defections. Briefly on the latter, Iâm seeing reports that need clarification due to crappy FB Translate or reporting errors.
Will the UN re-seat U Kyaw Moe Tun, who after the coup held up the Hunger Games salute to the Civil Disobedience Movement and said he would not recognize the coup but would represent those who had won the election?
China is the biggest factor. Really the only factor. Last year, a deal was struck and China looked the other way as Tun was re-seated. But China seems to have been warming to the regime. The NUG are perhaps not perfectly equipped to deal diplomatically with China which had sought assurances that the NUG would prevent attacks on Chinese business interests (not the least of which are the fuel pipelines). NUGâs reply was basically that the people want democracy and it would be a mistake for China to align itself with the military.
Losing U Kyaw Moe Tunâs spot at the UN would be a devastating blow to the people who are fighting the regime (successfully, I will add below). If you feel an inkling to, please add yourself to the petition here.
UN Investigative Mechanism Drowning In Incidents That Need Investigating
At the same time, today, the UN Investigative Mechanism for Myanmar presented to the the 51st Regular Session of the Human Rights Council:
We were created by this Council to collect and preserve evidence of the most serious international crimes in Myanmar. Tragically, I must report that since I last addressed you, such crimes have intensified. The people of Myanmar continue to suffer because of the lack of accountability for those who believe they answer to no lawâŠ
âŠSince the military coup in February last year, there is increasing evidence of crimes against humanity and war crimes, including murder, torture, deportation and forcible transfer, persecution, imprisonment, and targeting of the civilian population.
The statement also speaks of the regime or pro-regime elements trying to interfere with the Mechanismâs ability to gather evidence on Facebook and describes the massive challenge as it is without that. Information items doubled this year to almost three million, but since the report was drafted has more than doubled again.
PDF vs. Tatmadaw One Year Retrospective
Sept 7th marked one year since that âD-Dayâ announcement by the NUG. I felt critical of that time. But the PDF has proven far more effective than any Myanmar observer would have guessed, even those who have been trying to point out PDFâs resolve in briefings begun not so long after that. Stats per NUG Acting President Duwa Lashi La (source: Mizzima):
PDF is comprised of more than 300 individual groups fighting against the junta.
PDF losses of life: âmore than 1,500.â
Tatmadaw losses of life: 20,150
Tatmadaw injuries: 7,000
I havenât chased reports of a leaked memo from Min Aung Hlaing lamenting Tatmadaw losses and blaming newly promoted leadership within the ranks.
Min Aung Hlaing can commiserate with his friend Vladimir Vladimirovitch.
As Iâm sure you know, MAH is behind the curtain this week or next.
14 Sept 2022
Not related but maybe future related:
Iâm having to take a break on this stuff for a few weeks. Not saying much doesnât mean there isnât a whole lot happening. (Among other things in recent days, PDF forces have managed to do attacks in the capital city of Naypyidaw and MAH is making a nuclear deal with Russia).
The Irrawaddy and Myanmar Now are excellent resources for the day to day.
Finally able to wrap up an old gripe. Congressman Sherman finally âgot it right.â
He does fail to acknowledge that the NUG has already offered these things, but at least heâs no longer lying by insisting the opposite is true.
28 Sept 2022
Talked to other Rohingya - sounds like they have spent hours talking with Sherman leading up to this.
The Foley Foundation Report on Wrongful Detainees and Hostages is out.
Scroll that page for links to exec summary and full report.
29 Sept 2022
Coincidentally, Sean Turnell convicted and gets a 3 year sentence. It was a dual trial with DASSK who ALSO gets 3 years. As for SeanâŠTime served-ish?
6 Oct 2022
Kubota Sentenced & Gets Immigration Hearings Next Week
The Japanese filmmaker was sentenced to ten years. They buried the lede though: immigration case picks up on Oct 12.
Junta Arms Dealers Sanctioned
American Prisoner Kyaw Htay Oo
I donât have it official yet but thereâs something going on re immigration charges there too.
Reports on PDF Beating Junta
There is significant growing evidence that in a number of different ways, the PDF is winning. This may be generated by NUG but Iâd keep an eye out for anything new by Anthony Davis of Janes Intelligence. Hereâs an interview of him from Irrawaddy in June.
Today, thereâs a video piece from Al Jazeera on this topic. It warns of distressing images. It is on youtube and I didnât see it blocked out as sensitive. However, I have not watched it and will think about whether I want to.
Jet Fuel Supplier (Puma) Bails Out
Myanmarâs Permanent Representative to the UN, who is loyal to the civilian government, votes to condemn Russiaâs illegal annexations of Ukrainian territory.
This is important. Recall as well that Min Aung Hlaing had offered to send troops to help Russia annex the Ukraine. As is, his troops canât even deal with severely underfunded ethnic and student peoples defense forces who are dropping bombs on them with toy store drones.
19 Oct 2022
NDAA 2023 hit the Senate floor a few days ago and I havenât done the deep dive yet. Well okay I did a ctrl-F on the congressional draft and find nothing about Burma or Myanmar but broader references to Indo-Pacific cooperation. The only mention of detainees has to do with Gitmo. But for FY 2022, Iâm quite certain most/all the Burma stuff was added in the Senate. (Maxine Waters did some really creative stuff on Burma, but just now I donât remember if that was NDAA. Iâll search our own thread here and edit this if I find it).
The American Prisoner turned 55 behind bars.
Kubotaâs immigration trial resulted in a three year sentence and the junta indicating any release is up to talks between the two ruling entities (well, they used the term âgovernmentsâ but I wonât apply that to both). So they must be looking for an offer from Japan.
Mostly I came here to share a nice find on Reddit, a user posting English language headlines and commentary that give context to numerous video clips of the PDF in action. So far Iâm seeing no âatrocity pornâ but it gives a good idea of where the fighting is. Thereâs other myanmar weirdness too. Skip the eye leech but do check out the drone/birds clip. Hereâs another redditor also keeping up. As they both post to the same sub which is well moderated, thereâs basically zero overlap.
Humor shared by one. I wish this was more in English but, boy, these generals love to collect medals and ribbons. I picture one of them tipping over some day. Hereâs Min Aung Hlaing with a touch of ass kissing from abroad:
Death count reportedly up to 80. Joint Statement for whatever good it may do:
We are following reports of a military air strike targeting a Kachin gathering resulting in the deaths of a large number of civilians.
Indiscriminate attacks which include civilian victims continue to cause extraordinary harm and suffering across the country.
This attack underscores the military regimeâs responsibility for crisis and instability in Myanmar and the region and its disregard for its obligation to protect civilians and respect the principles and rules of international humanitarian law.
Signed by the Ambassadors, ChargĂ©s dâAffaires, and Heads of Mission from: Australia, Canada, the Delegation of the EU and European Union Member States with presence in Myanmar: Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, and Sweden; as well as Norway, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
The #SanctionAviationFuel hashtag seems most appropriate. Regime proxy mouthpieces are claiming this was a military base by a rebel group - note the statement only asserts that the deaths âinclude civilians.â
25 Oct 2022
This goes back about a month, but is likely a growing phenomenon. You may first notice the smiling teacher, the colorful clothing, the many cool hats or the joys of learning, before really taking note of where they are sitting.
Since school houses are being targeted for attack, school classes have been moved into trenches. Above in central Myanmar after helicopter attacks killed ten children.
27 Oct 2022
UN Special Envoy Noeleen Heyzerâs statement to the UN General Assembly, 25 October.
ASEAN condemned for deporting asylum seekers. Regime condemned for killing civilians and children in the airstrikes. Lip service re the other side: âThe Peopleâs Defence Forces are also accused of targeting civilians.â
The UN publications page on Myanmar only has this address and a press release referencing the delivery of a report. The report itself is not (yet) provided online, from what I can tell.
2 Nov 2022
An open letter from 177 organizations is calling on US President Biden to designate the Tatmadaw as a terrorist organization, sanction MOGE and sanction the cronies and their families.
Crosspost from World Politics.
Omnibus:
15 Nov 2022
Thanks @vermes82 ! Itâs really solid.
My personal journey is still enmeshed in all of this but I canât say much these days.
Detainees
Australian Detainee Sean Turnellâs 11 year wedding anniversary is in three days.
Apologies if this is a repeated thought: When I talk to analysts they see Min Aung Hlaing as inept and having no idea what to do on the world stage. My friend who is also a detainee has cautioned me to be very careful not to underestimate Tatmadaw leaders - arrests do tend to have a calculated goal, for example, and in his words, âthey are very tricky.â But the analysts point to these foreign detainees as a sign of ineptitude - in particular, seizing the former UK ambassador was a dud heard round the world. ASEAN leaders despise the practice. Japan has been one of the few links to both promote business and better relations with the outside world, and the Japanese are at their wits end about the detained filmmaker.
Friendly Fire
PDF forces report a friendly fire incident in which they say a Russian MI-35 gunned down 60 regime troops who were just doing their jobs of burning down villages.
ASEAN Meeting
ASEAN knows the 5 point plan has been a total failure. It is as I had seen it, pointless without the regimeâs participation. There is an argument within ASEAN: can they influence the regime while effectively banning it from ASEAN at the same time? There is not a suspension of Myanmar as an ASEAN member or partner, but regime reps are not welcome at ASEAN gatherings. Thailand argues that ASEAN should engage and allow participation. The NUG meanwhile has been completely disregarded. Now, ASEAN leaders have hashed out fifteen points which reportedly point to future engagement with NUG, PDF and/or ethnic opposition groups.
Malaysia today has rejected any plan of a junta-controlled election.
Juntaâs Air Capabilities
More about those Russian SU-30 jets. TL;DR: they give the junta 4x their previous bombing capacity per vehicle and the 3000km range easily extends to every corner of Myanmarâs map. There is also a pretty thorough overview here of the current and ordered air force capabilities by Burmese American security analyst MiMi Winn Byrd.
