Nate Silver doesn't like Bernie's chances

There isn’t anything special about land lines anymore.

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And that’s the kind of thing that makes me and others like me feel like staying in bed. Yes Trump and Cruz scare me, but so does Hillary’s status quo politics.

But if not voting gets you angry, how about this? Bernie supporters vote Green in all states where only one party can win. It won’t change the election but it will hopefully make Hillary know that not everyone on the left is happy with her.

By the way, it’s not just democrats she is losing, its the independent left too (which would include me).


I knew a few Nader voters who pretended to be perfectly happy with Bush’s presidency, because Gore was not pure enough and therefore exactly the same as Bush. Thank God Sanders is too smart and principled to run independent. Those same guys would stubbornly rejoice all four years of the Trump administration. Also, the next 20 years of the Trump Supreme Court.


Mr. All That’s Worst in America will destroy himself and the GOP if he is elected President. The question is whether the Dems want to destroy themselves in similar fashion by manhandling the primary in a way that drives away Sanders supporters and sets up Mrs. All That’s Second Worst in American for a devastating loss to a looser. Its their choice, and believe me, don’t think for a minute that many won’t savor watching the Dems screw the pooch in the contest that was theirs’ to win.

The thing is there is not much they can do about it at this point. They drew their lines in the sand months ago, with bad debate dates, and primaries on saturdays, and fostering Clintons false air of inevitability. They can’t un-do any of that shit. But they can tell Clinton to bow-out now. Sure beats loosing in November.


afaik Denmark and Norway don’t have a legal minimum wage (but highly effective unions and comprehensive labour agreements)


I would just point out that Nate Silver also wrote a bunch of articles saying that he didn’t like Trump’s chances either.

How’s that working out at the moment?


@cowicide used to talk a lot about the importance of voting for any Dem (I do get the argument, just…ugh).

What happened to that guy?

Weird, though - looking at his twitter feed he’s really all in for Sanders.

I don’t like Trump’s chances. He won’t be the GOP candidate.


Why did it take Corporate Media 6-7 years before ANYONE asked Donald Trump a tough question. Chris Mathews doesn’t the brownie points for it Trump Blundered into the whole mess by asking Mathews something about Mathews Catholic views, and was at least not brain-dead enough to ask Trump a follow-up about abortion enforcement.


After Michigan, the larger pollsters adjusted their weights for the increased youth demographic turnout for calculating likely voters. This has led to significantly better polling.

Most major pollsters call cell phones. Non-answer rates are often largely mitigated by calling the same number upwards of 10 times until they answer at different times of the day.

The whole point of using sample weights is to compensate for unequal sampling rates that result in a demographic that is not representational of likely voters. Typically they adjust by age, ethnicity, gender, education level, geographic strata, phone type and if they are likely to vote (based on questions).

Controlling for bias in population surveys is pretty well understood, but election polling is problematic because people change their mind, different levels of GOTV efforts can change the voting demographics, open primaries can cause people to switch which party they vote for to sabotage them, weather can affect turnout, early voting rates and the fact that polls can influence people’s decision to vote.


Exactly. I had to take the essential polling/social science stats class in college during the mid-eighties. Even though I did see my first mobile phone (remember the big handset connected to a small over-the-shoulder box?) being used by a pretentious* businessman, I doubt my prof even considered the implications.

I answered one poll this season and it was so poorly designed and executed. I only answered the questions because I felt so sorry for the young person who had the job to read the essays prompts that the pollster considered questions. It was awful (and I suspect skewed right).

eta: on a cell (don’t have a land line and I’m way above 30 @jackbird) and that’s 20 minutes I’m never getting back.

Also *he was pretentious because I got to know him as a customer.


Oh, I’d say way more than 10 times…maybe 30 is when I finally picked up? My husband still won’t pick up.

I can’t believe we are the exception, and thus is why I find the the polling for this particular election season a bit suspect.


If its Clinton vs. Trump, I’m leaving it blank (barring a decent 3rd party candidate as a protest vote). I can’t, in good conscience, vote for either of them. Both of them are pro-war, pro-business, anti-poor, know-better, authoritarian jerks. Clinton is a bit worse, since she is still a machine establishment candidate, she’s looking out for the Democratic power base (not the people). Clinton represents pretty much everything wrong with American politics. Trump, I obviously can’t vote for, because he’s insane, unstable, racist, and a clown.

Bernie, in my mind, is the last chance we have of saving the Democratic party. Clinton, Obama, Clinton would be the complete death blow of liberalism for a long time. I’m sick of slick Corporately Endorsed, groomed, sacks of populist sweet nothings, who believe in nothing but power for the sake of power. Candidates who think that Americans are to stupid and weak, and thus need the Government to choose whats best for them (which, obviously, is what’s best for Wall Street and the Globalized Economy). Politicians that give lip service to equality, and the general welfare of Americans, but do absolutely nothing about it, unless it threatens their polling numbers. I’m sick of reactionary warmongers, trading “security” for popularity. We need to kill some brown people, so Americans can sleep better in the fact that “we’re doing something”, because murder is easier than fixing the real problems. I’m sick of these slick asshats playing tit-for-tat with our well being, just to get some little progress. I’m sick of them scratching the back of the power brokers (Hollywood copyright lobby, energy, insurance, etc…) just to guarantee funding for the all important party. What (profanity) good is being in office, if you don’t actually FIX anything.

Sorry for the rant. I have very strong opinions about HRC. Please mind that they are my opinions, and I don’t mean to wield them to belittle the opinions of others. I don’t think Bernie would make a good president, to be completely honest. But I voted for him, and will vote for him, because he, at least, seems to be a good human being, as opposed to being a good politician.

I added all the unknown numbers to spam using Google Voice, and put them all in a special contact listing that sends them straight to voicemail without notification. Thus all my polling calls go straight to, basically dev/null. I also can’t be alone in never answering unknown numbers, and never acknowledging them after the fact unless their business is important enough to leave voice mail.


Oh believe me I won’t be happy to vote for Clinton if it comes to that, but I will happier doing that than anything that will help Trump or even worse Cruz win.


Major pollsters actually compensate for that too. Pollsters occasionally conduct large surveys over days or even weeks to get the demographics and biases of non-responders which can be used to make non-response adjustments. Pew last did one, that they made public at least, in 2012.

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I think your correct with respect to major pollsters. However, the poll I answered wasn’t from a major pollster (and not just because she mentioned the poll, but because of the design and execution).

I writing Bernie in, whether or not he makes a Sherman declaration.

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Nate Silver doesn’t do a great job taking state population by age (a big demographic factor) into these contests.

President Trump thanks you.

I’m not a Democrat and I do not negotiate with terrorists.


Doesn’t matter what party you affiliate with – not doing the most strategic thing to stop any of the current GOP crowd from taking the reigns is essentially counting on herd immunity to save you while skipping the vaccine.