Nate Silver doesn't like Bernie's chances

9 Likes

Hie thee to the .gif bank with thatā€¦

9 Likes

there is no way I canā€™t prove that nobody in this thread isnā€™t one of nate silverā€™s sockpuppets

11 Likes

:smile_cat: hahahaha!

3 Likes

If you want a decent third party candidate as a protest vote, thereā€™s Jill Stein. If you want a hilarious candidate as a protest vote, thereā€™s John McAfee, or, if you canā€™t stomach him, Vermin Supreme. Itā€™s still worth going out and voting, because if everyone who was discouraged and didnā€™t vote went to the polls and voiced their displeasure by voting for John ā€œI think this drug-addled lunatic, halfway through a month-long bath salt binge, is better than your status quo bullshitā€ McAfee, it would still drive a lot of positive change.

Personally, I remember how stunningly obvious it was that we were being lied to, and how obvious it was that that war was going to be a humanitarian disaster, before the second Iraq war, and there was never any chance, as long as I live, that I would vote for someone who supported it for national office, but I still go out and vote in every election. If you canā€™t stomach the major party candidates, and even going and voting for Jill Stein doesnā€™t appeal to you, you should go and vote for Vermin Supreme.

9 Likes

Statisticians, amirite? We should ask some engineers who to vote for.

3 Likes

Joun the DSA, organize, support candidates for local office ā€¦ thereā€™s lots to do.

2 Likes

Ok, I confess. (Oops, wrong thread.) I am Nate Silver. Unless you are Nate Silver, in which case I am Nateā€™s Deli.

8 Likes

All yā€™all a bunch of Little Deluded Dupesā€¦

9 Likes

Well, in Sandersā€™ defense, in his 17 years in Congress only 8 bills he introduced ever made it to the floor. Most of the 18 bills Hillary Clinton sponsored that made it to a floor vote were naming or commemorating things.

They were mostly voting on other peopleā€™s bills. It isnā€™t really surprising that they both voted similarly since there arenā€™t that many progressives who manage to get bills to a floor vote.

9 Likes

I tend to think if either of the two gets much done, or makes much out of what advantage can be gained this year, and leaves fertile ground for the next elections its Hillary over Bernie. Sheā€™s spent her entire political career working in and around similar situations. And has maintained a pretty liberal record since she started running for office. Despite hysterical claims to the contrary. Apparently moderates are now rabid conservatives. And those who disagree with me on degree are no different than those who disagree with me on principal. Compromise is a dirty word, and practicality is out the window. Bernie on the other had has spent his years in congress largely as a left wing Ideologue. Sitting in a safe seat, making cautious moves within his own ideological block. And occasionally making (admittedly) cynical political moves like voting against gun control measures.

Bernieā€™s plan is contingent on a massive reversal of all of the things I outlined, a reversal that border line canā€™t happen. And Iā€™ve seen precious little out of him or any of his supporters on any of those subjects. Or what he might try to do when he inevitably gets stonewalled by an opposition that has an active interests in not just blocking him but entrenching systems that prevent anyone from making any kind of progress. So the question isnā€™t how Bernie makes good on his proposals. But what he does when he canā€™t. He seems actively antagonistic to those questions, and the base concept. As do most of his most vocal supporters. Iā€™m sure he has plans, fall back positions. People he works with, other agendas to support. Iā€™m fairly certain that what youā€™d end up seeing out of Bernie looks an awful like what youā€™d see out of Hillary in the end. But the disregard for the entire subject, concept, and unwillingness to discuss or address it or related issues doesnā€™t fill me with confidence.

But as I think I mentioned I dislike the nasty insistence that these people are opposites, with radically different ideology most of all. Theyā€™re from the same ideological block, have roughly similar records on votes and positions, have worked together on some of this shit, and even sit in the same age bracket and served in congress for roughly the same region. Which is why most of these discussions seem to come down to these sorts of vague ā€œapproachā€ arguments and what are fundamentally disputes about personality.

2 Likes

Ralph Nader ran for national office without representing a national movement.

Thereā€™s more political work to do in our neighborhoods than voting for President on Tuesday every four years and then smiling at ourselves in the mirror the rest of the time.

3 Likes

Giving the people what they actually want is the most radical idea of all

18 Likes

This is a really lazy question, but there seem to be a few active minds hovering around so Iā€™m going to indulge myself.

In Australia, if I vote for the Greens (and I do), particularly in a city electorate, thereā€™s a chance theyā€™ll get a seat. They have a lot of influence in the senate and theyā€™ve had a reasonable impact on legislation here.

Is it really impossible for that to happen in the US? Are you really limited to just two parties that suck so hard they blow?

4 Likes

Thatā€™s because we pay for NATO instead. When you give all youā€™re money to the defense/prison/pharmaceutical-industrial complex, itā€™s hard to support a middle-class. Not saying this is a good thing, but itā€™s no mystery where the money goes, right into the tax shelters of the plutocrats.

6 Likes

Donā€™t know if any Greens have a city position, but a certain socialist has one in Seattle.

3 Likes

Well historically anyway for national office third parties when they get enough following have either made the closest major party shift the platform and absorb the new party or just die like the Whig party did when the Republican party came to power. It is more the first one that happens.

4 Likes

I wonder if all the Clinton supporters know that they are not actually convincing me that she would be a better choice, with all their ā€œBernie wonā€™t be able to do anythingā€.

Who is the Impossibilist candidate for president?

I am only half joking. I was already feeling like the impossibilists were right before Bernie Sanders and Jeremy Corbyn came along and changed my mind. I donā€™t agree with them, both of them are politically to my right, but at least they are a step in the right direction. Hillary and the Blairites are just more of the same at best.

3 Likes

Sound like a good idea.

I canā€™t though, I live in the UK, not that far from Bernieā€™s brother Larry, who I voted for in the 2005 UK General Election.

2 Likes