The election will be recognized as the official start of our second civil war. It’s already started, but people still seem to have this fantasy that electing Biden will somehow fix things.
Trump’s militias will help seize power the same way the Brownshirts did in Germany, the Taliban did in Afghanistan, the Facisti did in Italy, et cetera et cetera.
A resistance will form, but our side will have a disadvantage because the other side has been literally preparing for exactly this, while liberals prefer to outsource our violence- Imagining that the police or military will put down an insurrection despite all evidence that both police and military widely support the Trumpers, and that white supremacists and radicalized Christians have been making a documented and concerted effort to take over those institutions for at least 30 years.
There are three places where we do have an advantage, though- Firstly, that the coastal (blue) areas control the most wealth, secondly that they control the technology, and third, that the rest of the world, with the possible exceptions of Russia and N Korea, like us better. We also control most of the coastline, so that makes things a bit easier.
People tend to forget how instrumental France was in the American Revolution, or how much effect foreign markets had on our first civil war. Logistics and Supply lines are ultimately more important than weapons. China and the OPEC states will stay neutral until there’s a clear projected winner. Russia might aid Trump, or they might pull out laughing at the chaos, depending whether their endgame is destruction or annexation. We’ve got most of the rest of the civilized world, and enough ports to keep supply lines open.
I’m reasonably sure that we can cripple their communications, fight from a greater distance, and maintain better resource management.
But it’s going to get really bloody. This isn’t going to be like last time with North versus South and a clear line of contention between them. This is going to be fought on a neighborhood level, and that’s much harder to predict. I honestly don’t know whether the guy with the giant Trump banner 6 houses down is going to go hunting people one night, or whether someone in the neighborhood will take him out first, or whether we’ll end up with a standoff for the duration.
I am unbelievably terrified at just how fucked we are right now. I have looked over every historical precedent I can find, and any time political polarization, wealth inequality, or violent counterprotests- Let alone ALL those things- have gotten to this level- Let alone during a pandemic- it’s always ended with bodies in the streets. Like, I was afraid of something like this happening, but seeing the number of people that are actively defending that 17 year old shooter… I don’t think we can continue to pretend it isn’t.
And I literally have no idea what I’m gonna do if it comes down to it.