That’s… still an explosion if they royally fouled up.
Eh, Kim Jong-un knows the value of a headline, but he’s no Putin.
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Explainer – How to detect a secret nuclear test
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At this point the DPRK is becoming more of a liability to China than useful. China has stronger commercial ties to the US, South Korea and Japan than it does North Korea. Right now they would rather bully Southeast Asian neighbors with their new toys (a deepwater navy) than really confront developed nations in a significant fashion.
The real big worry people should have with the DPRK’s nuclear program is the high likelihood of a Chernobyl-type disaster. That the carelessness and backwards technology will unleash a radioactive mess which has Seoul, Beijing, Pacific Russia and Western Japan in its footprint.
Commercial ties aren’t everything. DPRK is still useful inasmuch as it diverts diplomatic attention from China’s own shenanigans, and force concessions whenever the world queues up to ask the Chinese leadership to “do something, anything” about their ugly stepchild. Is it a coincidence, for example, that these tests happen at a point when tension in the South China Sea are off the charts? Maybe, maybe not. But it’s a safe bet that SCS will be mentioned whenever Chinese sit down with counterparts to talk about DPRK.
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Commercial ties prevent these sort of incidents from metastasizing into military actions and wars. Actual shooting wars between China, the DPRK and their developed neighbors/US are highly unlikely. We are at the point with China of Cold War style maneuver and gamesmanship with none of the nuclear apocalyptic possibilities.
China’s navy is enough to bully Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam but would not hold up against even the JSDF’s maritime defense force, let alone a US Naval presence.
What can anyone else do so that (a) they don’t think they need this deterrant capability (b) they aren’t testing their nukes and (c) they are finally confident enough to cut back their regular military and (d) they aren’t cocky enough to invade?
Would they trust free Chinese nukes?
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And admit that they are utterly dependent on China for their survival and give up that great nuclear blackmail cash?
The DPRK nuclear program has far less to do with national survival as it does cheesing off South Korea, Japan and the US. A way to demand cash from those countries under veiled threats. A half-baked nuclear program is far more useful to them than actual nuclear weapons.
Even setting aside the awfulness of a war, neither China nor South Korea want do deal with millions of refugees, South Korea likewise probably doesn’t want the $2 trillion + cost of fixing the place (East Germany cost about that much, so call that the white chip). Neither China nor Russia wants a unified Korea, since North Korea is a useful buffer against US forces. Japan doesn’t particularly want to get into a shooting war either. So, for now, the best short-term plan for everyone is to let North Korea stay North Korea…
A pity, but not sure – with a reliable nuclear program – there’s a thing anyone can much do about it. Waltzian deterrence theory says the best thing for any country to have is its own nuclear weapons.*
- Cue Frank Zappa quote.
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I don’t disagree, I’m just saying DPRK is still a valuable piece in that gamesmanship context.
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“Our supreme leader pretends to be funny, and we pretend to laugh at his jokes.”
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