Conventionally endorsements have very little impact in driving voters. For prominent people it brings media attention. And there are some very particular people in very particular voting blocks who legitimately have pull (especially among Evangelicals). Otherwise it just seems to indicate fundraising and organizing support.
The thought during primaries is that candidate’s supporters will be more likely to swap to whoever they endorse so a lot of attention is paid to it. But we’ve watched that not happen repeatedly the last few elections so I don’t know how much stock we should put into.
I also think people are putting too much stock in the idea that those candidates dropped and immediately endorsed Biden to undercut Bernie. It seems just as likely it was about pushing Bloomberg out. Even Buttigieg didn’t seem to be a fan of the guy, and Kolbuchar seems to fucking hate him.
Sanders had a month or so at the top of the polls, clear front runner, with the bulk of press coverage. He spent that time talking as much about the Democrats being out to get him as anything else, and labeling an ever expanding group of ideas as “the establishment”.
So that habit seems to follow from Sander’s own approach to things. And that does seem to be part of what stalled him out. He was expanding his voter base, attracting support among Hispanics. Older groups, more partisan Democrats, less liberal Democrats, and women. All the sort of places outside his fervent base that he’d need to win the nomination. And it drove his early performance. You dig into the break downs on Super Tuesday the remarkable thing is not that those gains stopped. It’s that they reversed since then.
People’s primary concern in this election is defeating Trump. And people seem intimately aware that doing so isn’t as simple as swapping the guy at the top. There needs to be an up and down the ballot effort, a lot of cooperation, and yes working with the Democratic party. And I think people were just turned off by a guy actively arguing against that.
It’s already a problem and has been. Since 2016 there’s been a big gender disparity among Sander’s supporters. And that’s part of what’s got Biden in the lead right now. Biden’s attracted more female voters, and women are 57% of the Democratic electorate at the moment. So that shit is (or should be) pretty fucking important.
And it’s kind of a tricky question as to why. Cause it’s not like Sanders is a vocal misogynist or something. I definitely think the failure to focus on race and gender, or even address them with any familiarity is at the root of the problem. As well as his on going problem with the black community.
But you’ve also got stuff like this:
In a recent analysis, researchers for Data for Progress did find that gender bias kept some voters from supporting Warren — but Sanders’s supporters didn’t hold more sexist views than Biden’s. But there is evidence, according to an analysis by Dan Cassino, a political science professor at Fairleigh Dickinson University, that while support for Biden increases among voters with more sexist views, those with the most sexist views were disproportionately likely to favor Sanders. And sexism was higher, in general, among men.
“Educated Democrats who are quite sexist are disproportionately likely to be Sanders supporters,” said Cassino. “To be clear, there aren’t a lot of those people in the Democratic Party. But because of their education and social capital, they’re probably more inclined to tell people about their views and express them online.”