Originally published at: Putin unharmed after drone explodes over Kremlin | Boing Boing
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QED
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Also, to be clear, this is the equivalent of a drone exploding directly over the White House in DC, something that’s extremely unlikely to happen (even less likely still as the result of a hostile state actor).
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oh, well. try again.
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Pity they missed.
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I can totally believe that Russia’s air defenses over Moscow are as much a paper tiger as the rest of the Russian military. Even so, I’m leaning towards false flag on this one.
Ukraine has nothing to gain by attacking that far into Russia, and attacking the Kremlin directly. They’re better off pursuing the Finnish Winter War/Continuation War strategy of securing their previous territorial integrity rather than try to expand their territory. And this has pretty much what they’ve been doing, with occasional supply line attacks into nearby Russian territory.
Add to that the drone did no damage? If an enemy was attacking they would absolutely want to do damage, to present a visible reminder to Russian Leadership and citizenry that nowhere was safe for them.
A false flag makes more sense for Putin to try to bolster support for his flagging war effort.
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Normally, the use of the term “false flag” makes my eyes roll so hard I can see my own brain, but you may be right here. He’s 100% willing to risk the lives of anyone and his first impulse seems to be dirty tricks. Plus, this came up today:
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Russia said the two drones targeting the Kremlin …were disabled using electronic radar assets.
How is that even supposed to work? Radar is a detection system. It is unlikely that any radio jamming energy would cause a drone to explode.
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So the drone exploded over a building (in which Putin was not resident at the time), and didn’t even injure the people standing on top of the building below it? Yeah, I’m going to say that explosive wasn’t intended to do any damage, whoever was responsible for this.
Yeah, including to the unprotected people climbing the dome underneath it when it exploded. That really does suggest either a “false flag” (non-) attack, or a purely symbolic act by some pro-Ukrainian faction.
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Really? Has Russian public opinion mattered up to this point? Has he needed another pretext to engage in attacks in Ukraine?
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Others still pointed out that the drone did no apparent damage and may be a false flag.
To what end? This sort of thing makes YOU look weak, brings the war to the people who are largely insulated from it, and makes people uneasy.
I don’t think the increased support by some would be outweighed by those who would support it less.
The idea that an internal faction is sending a message seems pretty plausible. I feel like if Ukraine sent something all that way, it would have done some actual damage, even if it was symbolic.
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I’m leaning more towards, accidental screwup being blamed on Ukraine. Last week one of their fighters let loose a laser guided bomb on a city street. Destroying a parked car.
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Doesn’t even have to be pro-Ukrainian. Wagner would be one such possibility.
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Or a Russian nationalist furious that Putin’s imperial adventurism is shrinking the “Russian world” and destroying the Russian army in a meat-grinder war.
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We’ll see how things shake out, but at the moment the explanation that makes most sense to me is that this was a false flag directed at jumpy Western governments. “See, you can’t trust Ukrainians with ATACMS, F-16s or any other long-range weapons - they’ll just shoot them all straight at Moscow. And we don’t want any escalation, do we?”
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He cares only insomuch as he can recruit additional soldiers, or at least not have more Russian men dodge the draft.
Russian national mythology revolves around the Great Patriotic War, in which the Soviet Union fought for its very existence. It’s one of the few things that might unify and motivate the country, which is why he accused Ukraine of being fascist and wanting to invade Russia.
As with all things, he doesn’t care about popular opinion until he does. Right now his literal existence is under threat (internally, not from Ukraine) and so he’ll be pulling out all the stops.
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A bomb under the table, like old Hitler got… that’s an actual attempt. This is weak, no matter what the aim was.
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Another idea I’ve seen is it gives the Russians a “moral” excuse to more directly target government buildings in Kyiv.
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Otto Skorzeny, Hitler’s favorite commando once told a reporter, the main problem with the Valkyrie Plot was the mistaken belief the killer expected to survive the effort.
Skorzeny stated, a person capable of smuggling in a bomb could easily have gotten a gun and just shot Hitler up close. But wouldn’t leave the room alive. During the interview he was boasting his own people could have done the job easily if so inclined.
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