Scientist studies Diplomacy game to reveal early signs of betrayal


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Am I overly jaded, or is 57 percent accuracy nothing to brag about?


Depends. If the humans have (say) 30% accuracy, it is very brag-worthy. 57% can be a lot in some contexts.


Depends how common betrayal is. It’s not a necessary part of the game. If only 1/10 betray, predicting over half of them is impressive. If everybody betrays, then why didn’t you know that?


Teaching an algorithm the utter ruthlessness needed to play Diplomacy?

Do they actively want to create skynet?


you can make a lot money in the stock market with 48% overall accuracy. You can also get close to beating blackjack (“twenty-one”), assuming you’re not forced to bet the same amount every time.

For a lot tasks, 57% is fantastic. For predicting a human interaction? sounds pretty good to me.


How difficult can it be? They’re playing Diplomacy; the betrayal rate is surely going to approach 100%? Are some of these algorithms predicting non-betrayal?


I will have you know Austrians are usually excessively polite and willing to stab you in the back.


The question is whether it was able to pick the turn on which the betrayal would happen. 57% would be absolutely astounding if so.


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