Scientist studies Diplomacy game to reveal early signs of betrayal


#1

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#2

Am I overly jaded, or is 57 percent accuracy nothing to brag about?


#3

Depends. If the humans have (say) 30% accuracy, it is very brag-worthy. 57% can be a lot in some contexts.


#4

Depends how common betrayal is. It’s not a necessary part of the game. If only 1/10 betray, predicting over half of them is impressive. If everybody betrays, then why didn’t you know that?


#5

Teaching an algorithm the utter ruthlessness needed to play Diplomacy?

Do they actively want to create skynet?


#6

you can make a lot money in the stock market with 48% overall accuracy. You can also get close to beating blackjack (“twenty-one”), assuming you’re not forced to bet the same amount every time.

For a lot tasks, 57% is fantastic. For predicting a human interaction? sounds pretty good to me.


#7

How difficult can it be? They’re playing Diplomacy; the betrayal rate is surely going to approach 100%? Are some of these algorithms predicting non-betrayal?


#8

I will have you know Austrians are usually excessively polite and willing to stab you in the back.


#9

The question is whether it was able to pick the turn on which the betrayal would happen. 57% would be absolutely astounding if so.


#10

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