It’s just about whether she caucuses with Republicans or not. If she caucuses with the Republicans, it’s 50-50 and it’s all back to power sharing. If she caucuses with the Democrats or doesn’t caucus with either party, it’s 51-49 or 50-49, so outright majority. That’s why they’re letting her keep the committee assignments, to keep her from caucusing with the Republicans. If she does switch to the Republicans, her 4-years seniority probably isn’t worth as much (though I don’t know how Republican seniority works for committee assignments). Since Schumer will still be the Majority Leader no matter what she does, if she caucuses with the Republicans, he can retaliate in various ways, but better not to encourage to move further.
