Partly just native pessimism.
But also:
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Gerrymander; it would take a twelve point national margin to take the House.
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Intensifying and increasingly blatant voter suppression and disenfranchisement, and
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The lack of enthusiasm for the Dems, brought about by their complete failure to reform or otherwise learn from the past two years.
The close races I’ve been watching have been gradually fading towards GOP wins (e.g. Beto/Cruz). The Dems have no momentum.
To be clear: I expect the GOP to hold both House and Senate, but I wouldn’t be shocked if the Dems scrape a narrow majority in the House alone.
Which wouldn’t solve anything, as (a) the Senate will block them, and (b) corrupt centrist Dems (who would hold the balance of power in this scenario) will happily do deals with the GOP while continuing to punch left.
