TLDR: the Dems need to beat the GOP by 12 points nationally just to scrape a bare majority in Congress.
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A twelve point margin requires much more than just a low-policy negative campaign. Especially when you consider that the twelve point thing is just gerrymandering; it doesn’t account for voter suppression and disenfranchisement.
It also doesn’t account for the point that you need much more than a bare majority if you’re to avoid being held hostage by the DINOs.