I don’t know… I’m really not convinced of that scenario being the best… I think we’re going to see violence either way, and that his hardcore are bound and determined to install him as dictator for life. Even if he ends up on the ballot and loses to Biden by a landslide, they’ll claim he really won and try to pull another Jan. 6th. Hell, if Trump (god forbid) wins in November, they’ll be violence. They are bound and determined to hurt the rest of us…
I think that SCOTUS absolutely needs to make a definitive and clear ruling here, in part because this is exactly their job - explicating what the Constitution means. Yes, they’ll be violence, but the MAGA crowd are already set on that, no matter what happens this year.
I think you’re probably right, but they should. This is Robert’s chance to make his court consequential by saving democracy. But it seems like the entirety of the conservatives in America lack any kind of spine to stand up to this movement. I know it’s not anywhere near a majority, but they are either so afraid of death threats or they are afraid of being called RINOs that they are willing to throw any sort of a free society away…
Maybe, but I wouldn’t be surprised no matter what happens if the MAGA Minion Rebellion turns into a fizzle-out.
A lot of them went to prison, and even more to my point, I think that will scare off a lot of others. Most of them are frightened cowards, which is why Tromp’s “You need to be very aware of so many imagined enemeez!” rhetoric works in the first place.
I don’t mean to belittle whatever violence will happen, but I’d be surprised by anything at the scale of January 6.
Oh, don’t get me wrong… I don’t think they’re going to kick off a viable civil war, but there are enough violent elements that violence would occur on a larger scale then we’ve seen so far, I think. There might be more consequences for them then (in a scenario where Biden retains the presidency) and we might finally get a federal law enforcement to take these white supremacist, anti-government networks seriously (which is the back bone of the violent wing of the MAGA movement). But lots of people will be hurt…
And of course, if Trump wins, he will pardon people (the more high profile militia guys most likely, because he knows that they’ll carry out acts of violence on his behalf).
I think it will be more diffused acts of political violence, but on a greater scale than we’re seeing now. More along the lines of the troubles (but more spread out over the entire country), but much less than the full scale wars in the Balkans in the 90s, but the same kind of cultural/sectarian/cultural alignments, if that makes sense. Places like ATL or Jackson or NOLA will be targets, since they are splashes of blue in states that are still GOP controlled.
I don’t know… I’m not sure we avoid a spike in violence no matter what, so it seems to me that SCOTUS needs to do the right thing and apply the 14th as it was intended.
Ah, if you want something “correct” but closer to your heart, they could rule that a court needs a finding of fact that a candidate is an insurrectionist, but not a conviction. It is a much lower bar than a conviction, but a far higher bar then “because a state is full of republicans”.
I don’t know how much backbone the current SC has, or even if they want to make a ruling that prohibits Trump. So beats me if this is in the cards.
That would be the way to go in my opinion (which is not at all informed by any kind of knowledge of US constitutional law).
It’s always struck me as weird how much US primaries are seen as part of the electoral process. As far as I’m concerned, the parties can put forward whoever they want, whether chosen by asking their members (a primary) or by casting lots or in backroom deals among their leadership. None of that is undemocratic. It’s the election that counts.
Absolutely, because last time we had a violent mob and an overwhelmed police force.
If it happens again we will have a violent mob, and overwhelmed police force, and the national guard.
The MAGA crowd will likely end up with somewhat more sympathetic martyrs. (not as in actually sympathetic, but they won’t be inconvienetly hanging around being morons, or turning states evidence, and they will likely get themselves killed before they do something like taking a dump on a seniors desk or whatever that loses them whatever sympathy they had, or taking classified documents).
Dead martyrs are generally more useful to a cause than those inconvently flawed living folks. Especially ones flawed enough to be MAGA in the first place let alone violently MAGA.
To neither of us, but I assume to more of the only people who really matter in the US elections: the undecided voters?
I’m not sure exactly how one can be undecided between Trump and any actual non-psychopath, but it is clear we have a non-trivial percentage of the population who haven’t made up their minds.
(or maybe I’m just assuming the undecided voters matter more then motivating the existing base of voters inclined to vote for one party or the other)
Maybe they should get off the fence and oppose fascism? I’m really beyond patience with people who claim that “both sides” are just as bad, and that it won’t matter which party controls things… I have LESS rights now than I did a few years ago thanks to that crowd…
This is like deciding between drinking fruit juice of a fruit you may or may not enjoy or a nice bucket of muriatic acid.
It shouldn’t be a hard choice, even if the fruit isn’t orange. Come on, jackfruit may not be your thing people but it beats an agonizing death.
(and some people may well find Biden to be a nice glass of orange juice…I’ve found him to be much better then I expected, I would rate him an orange juice, although on my personal scale grapefruit scores higher…both are dramatically better then death, especially the agonizing kind!)
I am picturing NI Troubles rather than 1861 SC. There is no hard border, it is very much Urban vs Rural populations, with lots of variation in both. It has every potential to be very bloody in a stochastic terrorism sort of way.
