Isn’t that precisely the reason that May sought these elections in the first place? To cut off her not-terribly-loyal backbenchers at the knees?
The exit poll was spot on. As was the YouGov poll.
Point of pedantry: it appears to be a “confidence and supply” arrangement rather than a coalition, key difference being that the DUP won’t get any ministerial jobs, unlike the Lib Dems in the Cameron-Clegg coalition.
And THAT sounds like the sort of stability that May was promising. What’s the over/under on a vote of no confidence and new election within one year?
Outstanding movement in the right (left) direction. Additionally, UKIP=0 is really heartening. A roadmap/harbinger for US 2018 perhaps.
The DUP seems utterly determined to keep Corbyn out of No. 10, so May’s really going to have to annoy them for them to pull the plug.
From an outsider’s perspective, I think it’s high time folks stopped underestimating Corbyn. It seems like every time he’s challenged, he comes out ahead.
Will calls for May to step down gain steam? It seems like the longer she hangs around, the more the Tories stand to lose.
No, she called an election because she thought she’d get a thumping majority for her personal mandate which was obviously lacking having never been elected as PM even by her own party. She lost and now she has even less of a mandate, and the Tory rebels know it. It’s going to be a free for all in the Tory party. The best she can hope for is that her particular approach to anything gains cross party support and so we end up with a defacto progressive Tory party. That way she’ll retain power.
She has certainly demonstrated the flexibility of principles necessary to achieve this, i just worry she lacks the wit.
If DUP is going to support her on Brexit (including giving up their border demands) they’re going to take the opportunity to demand Tory support for at least one of their repugnant policies. It comes down to how many Tories are willing to give in to them keep her (as opposed to one of them) as PM. With that bunch of backstabbing opportunists I think she’ll be out of the leadership by the end of the year. A few byelections this year and next and we may see a no-confidence vote in 2018.
Sorry, I don’t think what you said and what I said are all that different. Yes, I’ve no doubt that was a factor, she just massively miscalculated.
What policies, though? I can’t really see them pushing for e.g. abolition of gay marriage in the rest of the UK, and NI-specific matters are generally in the purview of the NI Assembly, not Westminster.
Unless you think that now they’re a minority in the Assembly (still the largest party, but a minority), and the NI govt has collapsed, they might push for a return to direct rule?
Probably putting more restrictions on abortion or maybe pushing creationism into the schools. I doubt that they’ll succeed, but they’re going to try. The only Brexit Europe is going to give May given her stance is a hard one, and DUP doesn’t want that.
That, and a Christian Iran, yes
OK, I thought I had a point there, but checking the results of the 2015 election, where the Conservatives actually had a majority in parliament, it turns out they then won with only 36.9% of the popular vote so actually have an increased mandate
You still had a point! 43.3% of the vote is not really a mandate to bugger things up however you wish.
Question from a non-UK resident (and one who lives under a different type of democracy): Are members of a coalition government at all “locked-in” to it? I.e., would the DUP have the option of dropping out of the coalition if (when) the Tories shaft them? And, if so, would the conservatives then have to re-petition to form a then-minority government (or form a new coalition or whatever)?
I recommend Harry Enten and Nate Silver’s take on the results and the polling. Basically:
-The polls missed by about 4% based on the final pre-election polls, which is par for the course in the UK. US polls (at least presidential election polls) are far more accurate. And as others point out, some pollsters were spot on.
-Those pollsters, of course, went against the prevailing wisdom so many pundits rubbished them.
-It’s unfair to blame the polls when the models that turn the polls into predicted election results are flawed - in particular many pollsters down-weighted young voters, resulting in a huge shift toward the Conservatives and generally a majority in seat projections.
It’s not really that this outcome wasn’t predictable, just that many ignored the polling evidence that it was possible. Advance polls were not necessarily wrong, but it was clear that the leader’s campaigns and external events shifted public opinion.
Yes, it’s not formal. It all depends on being able to survive a vote of no confidence. I think this is not really a coalition at all (in which the DUP take cabinet positions), but is actually a “confidence and supply” arrangement in which DUP will vote against any no confidence motions and informally with the Tories on issues.
Thank you. And yeah:
i meant to include a disclaimer regarding @SheiffFatman’s “point of pedantry”.
Weirdly, it’s the largest share of the vote for the Conservatives since Thatcher. I think it must reflect increased support for conservatives in their strongholds and loss of support for them elsewhere (particularly urban areas). It will be interesting to see how the results break down across the country, but that would be consistent with trends seen in the US, Canada and elsewhere.