I don’t know. If you had to put in a hard border because of Brexit that’s going to stir up a lot of unpleasant memories. Couple that with everyone being poorer (loss of cross border trade, Brexit, Austerity, etc.) and potentially moving back to direct rule I could see it happening. I wonder if the Americans will be as eager to fund the terrorism this time round, though.
[Caveat: while I’m British, I’m not an expert on the agreement, I just have a general understanding - and am happy to be corrected by people who live with it. ]
As am I, after announcing to Mr. Jilly when he got home (me complete with a handful of “bandages” and stuffed animal), “Well, Theresa May has fucked it all up. She’s in bed with homophobes and racists and any minute The Troubles are going to start again.” To which he replied, “I think that dog needs more toilet paper on his head.”
I have to emphasise that we really shouldn’t rule out the ‘political posturing’ aspect, here - nor that people remember how much of an improvement the results of the GFA actually is, and (I hope) won’t bollock-that-up lightly (That’s including the Conservatives, mind you.)
Yes, and thank you. I’m in a somewhat overly heightened state due to too much news watching. Working from home sounds good until you keep assaulting loved ones when they arrive home with bathroom tissue and histrionics.
Remember that this is actually a significant protest against the way the UK (and to a degree, the western world) is sliding, and that even the visibility of the government shoring-itself-up with the DUP (“The most politically aligned party to their views is them? Goodness”) weakens them. And getting them to need to listen/achieve a consensus on what the hell we are doing right now, rather than just steam-rollering on, is a positive thing.
Although the DUP, as both a party which wins constituency seats and (arguably) an ethnic-minority party, would probably be exempt from the threshold under the German system.
Jonathan Powell, who was Tony Blair’s chief of staff when the GFA was concluded, weighed in on the problems of a pact with the DUP on Radio 4, reported by the Guardian here:
I do think it’s a mistake to go into government with the ‘support of our friends’ in the DUP. Even John Major avoided doing that and the reason he avoided that is the peace process is based on a balance that the British government has made it clear it is neutral in Northern Ireland, it doesn’t take sides. Once you have their support, you are no longer neutral.
It matters for two big reasons. First, we haven’t managed to get the executive back up and running in Northern Ireland because of divisions between the two sides. The British government were trying to mediate between the two sides to get an administration up and running again and of course now it can’t possibly have that role of mediating.
And secondly I think it’s a mistake because one of the big issues in the Brexit negotiations is the border between north and south. Now the DUP is a minority in its view about Brexit, it’s in favour of Brexit. This is going to be a very real problem.
Whatever you put on a piece of paper, you’re living there with a minority government. That’s dependent on the DUP. You get to a crucial issue and then they say: ‘Remember what we want in terms of talks in Northern Ireland’, and the government has a choice. Do they say: ‘We’re not giving you that. We’ll let the government collapse’? Or do they just bend a little on that issue – it’s just one small issue, it doesn’t matter?
But beyond that, the government can’t possibly be seen as neutral on Northern Ireland now if it puts itself at the mercy of the DUP.
It’s interesting how in roughly a generation Scotland has gone from being more regressive than England on gay rights (homosexual acts between men were illegal in Scotland until 1980, 13 years after they were legalised in England) to arguably more accepting. Kezia Dugdale (leader of the Scottish Labour Party) is in a same-sex relationship; David Coburn (leader of Scottish UKIP) and David Mundell (Scottish Secretary in the UK government) are gay; and Patrick Harvie (co-convener of the Scottish Green Party) is bisexual.
Ruth Davidson can be fantastic. The then chief of communications at Downing Street wanted her to appear alongside Labour’s Angela Eagle for the “Remain” side at a debate before the Brexit referendum: Ruth’s response was “Are you absolutely sure you want two short-haired, flat shoes, shovel-faced lesbians with northern accents?”
Oh great, Michael Gove is back in the cabinet as Environment Secretary
And I’m not impressed with the new Secretary of State for Work and Pensions (not that I thought that Damian Green, Stephen Crabb or Iain Duncan Smith were any good either).
I’ve been complaining about their weak opposition for the past year and the fact it always seems may runs rings around him at the despatch box because she goes for personal attacks where corbyn doesn’t. But you’re right, anything scripted he’s not very good at but he’s superb at the off the cuff grassroots campaigning that would be impossible to imagine may doing. Then again, people voted for his policies not the person which is what he wanted. May’s downfall was because she made it all about her and she has the charisma of a chair.
So it appears that May is going to be staggering on as the head of a minority government, staggering on zombie-like with the support of Northern Ireland’s very own far-right, fleg waving unionist nutcases.
As for the content: if the way my UK friend explained it is true, the breaking of the agreement is simply by the fact that a coalition, even a confidence and supply agreement, violates the GFA by virtue of it being the government of the UK taking a stance on the Irish issue (Unionist or Independent), which is prohibited. The UK is not allowed to officially have any opinion one way or another.
