Venezuela military coup? Guns fired at Maduro protesters, Internet blocked, Guaidó with soldiers claims ‘final phase’

Continues…

The fact that some of us support Guaidó does not mean that we love Trump and support Imperialism Really is a shame that this crisis is happening at the same time that the Trump administration… for me in particular is a cluster fuck of mixed feelings. Also, there are a quite vocal groups of Venezuelans that are more papist than the pope… they are just desperate and are willing to cling to anyone able to help even when that help comes from the least trustworthy individual in the history of US political history.

The opposition is made of liberals and social democrats this is not an opinion this is a fact, you can look it up and read about it our history in the past 40 prior Chavez was dominated of Two Social Democratic Parties, one came from a division of the Communist party and the other is from a Social Christian more center due to the religion influences. Those parties are today blamed for setting the table for Chavez rise and subsequently this crisis, the more powerful of those parties is the more social democrat one of the two; AD they still mange to bring people to the opposition rallies their batch of honor is the fact that they bring down the previous Dictator Marcos Perez Jimenez a true Far Right South American Despot. Well… That “table” was made of corruption and lack of support for the infrastructure set years before to sustain the social security network that was build with the Oil we happen to have, is notable that almost all our current infrastructure dates from the 70s and 80s build by those governments, the regime as been so reluctant to maintain that infrastructure Of build new one that the past month 30 million people was let without electrical power and water for more than a week, I check this forum has the lights turn on to see what my fellow liberals from the north have to say about that but to my surprise not a word was said… if I miss someone please send me the link.

The sanctions are not the main cause of our economic crisis Will edit this later to add my insight on the subject later.

Maduro was not democratically elected in May 2018 and his previous election was won by less of 1% for exercising illegal control of the electoral branch of our government Will edit this later to add my insight on the subject later.

Not Chavez or Maduro were inclined to give up power even if an election is lost Will edit this later to add my insight on the subject later.

I’m not hoping for a military intervention in my country But if it’s comes I must find the way to survive it as I manage to survive this regime.

Our Oil is not to be given away if the opposition takes on This is complicated and have some buts in it if there is more interest I will add more about it.

Hands off Venezuela and CodePINK are serving as tools for a despot, if they were here protesting against this regime most of them, their family, and financial associates were forcibly disappeared or tortured in El Helicoide or in La Tumba in the hands of El SeBin with no due process and no warrant. Their standing will not endure the scrutiny of time, their reputation is tainted for life, I used to be supportive of some of their causes now I see most of them with suspicion. Also, I’m the quite frankly disappointed with the flimsy stand and opinions from several Congress men and women in the liberal side, the amount of misinformation and old concepts traded like new ones are shameful and makes me question their judgment and qualification of the people that give them information to reach those judgments.

Well that are some of my opinions I will add more if the conversation takes us there if there is any… I find these discussions interesting and hope to expand on all this if there is any interest. Also expand the depiction of my experiences to get some context in what means to live here, from getting food, to buy or sell stuff, to get medical attention or walk around and work, I’m quite sure most or you have no idea how all that is and how complex thing can get from the most mundane to the life changing and why.

Now, sadly the educated opinions I have seen so far takes the North American point of view and almost totally ignores the Venezuelan one (NOT ALL BUT MOST OF THEM And I get that there is no way to get good information without been spoon-fed by the regime or other extremist… even so) I dare to say that it is almost the same approach that the imperialist-world-police-war-mongers take when they decide to spread freedom, I mean there is a bunch of people that comes together and arrives to conclusions on a foreign culture, politics and culture from their point of view and bias without ever bothering to ask the actual people of that country what they want or need.

We as liberals must be a bit less eager to fall for our confirmation bias and be ready to listen and change our standing, if not we are inches away to become extremist and the extremes comes closer to each other and become the same.

4 Likes

@jproffitt71 and others, just thought you’d appreciate this graph I came across:

This website as a 2014 marginal cost of production. Its true that the revenue from heavy oil is lower than from lights. However light oil from say, Alaska or the Gulf has higher production and shipping costs. Hence the marginal cost of Vene crude in 2014 was only $20pb. Volumes are a much bigger factor in their revenue decline. The problem was transfer payments to the Venezuelan poor (and stealing/corruption). Notice they need an oil price of $117 to break even on their fiscal position. But the oil was heavy before and its heavy now. Its a bit of a red herring. Declining volumes has been the problem. Which is about underinvestment.

Rich Venezuelans taking their money to Miami is by far the most important factor. Foreign investment is and was tiny in comparison. There never was that much of it. After all, they used to have an pretty expert oil production company in the country. Why bother sharing with foreign oil companies? And what kind of return would foreign investors demand anyway? Returns on $ government bonds were 22% in 1995. I remember it clearly cos I traded them. Admittedly, Argy was in trouble again which forced up yields all over the region.

Of course, rich Venezuelans did this because they feared poor investment conditions, and potential expropriation by Chavismo governments. Expropriation did not happen, but the economy has been poor. Taxes have increased on the rich, but little has been collected. It also didnt help that a lot of rich Venezuelans always had homes in Florida. They just moved their lives to their Florida homes and stopped bringing their money back to the country. Kids were educated in the US.

2 Likes

Given the history of SA power struggles, coups, CIA, and GRU in the mix, who knows what Venezuela will look like 5 years from now. To my mind, same concern applies even if Guaidó comes into power.

SandyGeorgia is a known Pro Chavez wiki editor she/he/they as been accused of edits with political bias and having suspicious activity (+100k edits in least of a week)

http://wikipediareview.com/index.php?showtopic=28567

Also, the regime is infamous for having a troll army to edit Wikipedia… there is an actual wiki page about the last time it hit the news, We are used to having to use a VPN to access Wikipedia when the regime have something to “fix” they commonly block the access.

venezuelaanalyst.com” Is a Front. It’s a Chavista propaganda outlet like a PR firm but in English ANY Venezuelan can tell you that just by taking a mere look over some articles, please stay away from them. To get actual news there is No easy way to put it. Use some google translate and dig on Venezuelan independent news outlets. OR learn some Castellano is not that hard… (I Lie it is muah mauha hahaha)

You seem to ignore that The Current Supreme Court was appointed by the lame duck National Assembly (NA) of 2010 mainly made of Chavistas; some context:

The NA Elections of 2015 gave the opposition majority by a lot, that was a surprise to the Chavistas, So the Chavista President of the NA Diosdado Cabello (if you google him you may find he is a colorful figure) did a quite trumpian thing He forcibly retired most of the Supreme Court (SC) just the ones with no clear loyalty to the PSUV and in a few weeks name a new court made of people that he choose, One of them The one that is the current President of the SC is a convicted murderer, yeap you read that right. The process to appoint SC Justices is quite extensive and requires time and lots of bureaucracy (it makes kinda sense) And it is described in our laws and Constitution in detail, BUT Diosdato is… Diosdado, so he appointed his Supreme Justices in an “express” way in December of that year days after the election took away the possibility of doing it next year, All this while the NA was in recess and without quorum, against regulation and Law, the actual ceremony was a sham. But is a chavista sham (paraphrasing Chis Rock) so, is all good.

Many if not all decent jurist in Venezuela have a bit of an issue recognizing that SC as legal or even Real and their decision has been so convenient to the regime that some politicians call the SC the Private Law firm of Maduro.

Later next year the New NA took all the lawful steps to amend the misconduct of the previous NA and in 6 months as the Law and Constitution requires The NA appointed New Supreme Justices and tried undo the forcible retirement of some Judges, but the next day the secret police raid the homes of the new judges and send them to Jail without due process warrant or any other benefit, many escaped, and they are now in exile. So as always or most of the time, is not that simple and looking online does not always give you the complete picture.

Yes but Maduro is not a sitting President the election made in May were not legal, not that it was rigged (it was) or it was extemporaneous (it was) but the convocation was unconstitutional the act was Null from origin.

Again Context: The SC (read above) gave Maduro an interpretation of an article in the constitution to allow him to call for a National Constitutional Assembly (NCA) (to counter the real NA) then that Illegal NCA decide to anticipate the presidential elections (that by Law must be taken place in December of that year) then that illegal NCA declared that the opposition parties are traitors so ask the SC to start “an investigation” next week the SC declared all those parties “illegal” and their members ban from electoral of public positions, So the CNE (electoral branch of the government and basically part of the PSUV) makes the elections happen in record time, and hocus-pocus Maduro “Wins” with more votes than the first time even with an abstention rate of 70% and having lost the NA by a landslide a year before, while all this was happening hundreds of Military officer and civilians were put in jail (without trails) and almost a thousand of demonstrators were killed mainly by gun fire in months of protest. Still, I got to read people argue about how Maduro is a democratic president and evil Guido is a CIA agent.

Finally, there are these other articles the NA is using to give their actions Constitutional footing and legal grounds;

Article 333

This Constitution shall not cease to be in effect if it ceases to be observed due to acts of force or because or repeal in any manner other than as provided for herein.In such eventuality, every citizen, whether or not vested with official authority, has a duty to assist in bringing it back into actual effect.

And 350

The people of Venezuela, true to their republican tradition and their struggle for independence, peace and freedom, shall disown any regime, legislation or authority that violates democratic values, principles and guarantees or encroaches upon human rights.

So these to articles give any Venezuelan the obligation to use any means to restore the constitutional order and gives no conditions or authority required to act. This article was Chavez’s Idea he put it there against the wishes of his own people it is the last article in our Constitution that He wrote, He did it to have an insurance policy against a hypothetical Coup. He was just that paranoid He died and never had the chance to use it, his “enemies” are using his creation to oust his heirs, is like poetry.

Our National anthem chorus have this line that read:

Glory to the brave people
which shook off the yoke,
the Law respecting
virtue and honour.

That is exactly what we are trying to do oust this pest using the law, but they are thugs, and they don’t play by the rules.

Well yeah! That’s because it seems quite difficult to read news in other language than English, Use google translate! If you want I can point you to a few news sources (from all sides, radical chavistas radical anti Maduro, pro Maduro, Anti Maduro, Academic, Independent and even frivolous ones)

1 Like

Its definitely partisan, but so are other news sources. I would guess it receives government funding, but its clearly not run by government. That said, usual rules about sources apply. If something is untrue, show its untrue. If its true, the fact that the guy saying it is biased is not central to an argument.

Yes, its clear that the Chavismo government has gamed Supreme Court appointments. Which makes it difficult to use the constitutional arrangements to ensure an orderly change of power. That said, if you were committed to an orderly transfer of power, you would probably have stood for election. And you probably wouldn’t attempt a military coup.

The crappiness of Maduro doesnt make the crappiness of the US puppet candidate Guaido any less crappy.

Also, lets not pretend that this is entirely without precedent. Its not as if the opposition to Chavismo have an unblemished commitment to democracy.

For what little its worth, my half brothers and half sister speak Venezuelan Spanish which didnt sound so Castillian to me. None of them still support Maduro. But I remember pre-Chavez Venezuela and pre-Chavez Cuidad Bolivar. Funnily enough the supermarkets looked empty then too.

Could you give a source for this? Dont worry, I speak a little spanish.

I type all that from memory but a single google search give me this result, you can try that too.

Let’s begin with the “gamed” SC appointments That makes EVERYTHING from them Invalid, it does not make it “difficult” It makes it judicially impossible, there is no possible nuance here. Why try to find a “actually” argument here? if is not to give the possibility of “worthiness” to the regime a priori ​showing bias or preconceive conclusion?

Now establishing that fact, if that illegal and void branch of the government calls, for a lets say brunch party; Anyone attending that party is endorsing them give them validity and legal footing, that was the trap that the NA avoid and declared in a document short after the SC and the NCA call for “elections” that elections were a sham from the get go They (the regime) even say it in national TV, the Vice at the time declared “we are not gonna give up the political power… not by votes not by force…” now you will not see that declaration in Venezuelaanalysis, TeleSur or RT, (That’s why I call that a propaganda outlet, is not on a wimp, I get you can’t see the BS and ask for links on the internet were the regime will admit they pay frontmen to make PR for them but sadly they are a bit more crafty than that)

Guaidó and the opposition coalition had always declared their intentions to hold elections BUT free and open Elections not hold by chavismo but by an independent and legally appointed CNE. And Guaido have not attempted a Coup He is the Interim President. Even if a Military unit attack a regime position (that have not happened) that military unit is fighting a despot occupying a position of power by force, so maybe an uprising is a correct term? Either way I find that kind of determinations like splitting hairs with no consequence; El Grupo de Lima the EU the US and most of the free world are clear on what is needed and what happened, we can call it brunch for what is worth.

Also, lets not pretend that the opposition is a monolithic unity like chavismo is, as always has been, they are a bunch parties, many partialities from all the political spectrum, not at all part of a single entity, that as been their weakness but, in many ways; also their main asset, as for Right now former chavistas are in the “Gran frente amplio venezuela libre” Communist and some Chavistas congress men and women are part of the coalition the old narrative of the Right wing evil opposition is as old as non-factual, now more than ever.

All the political elements that call for intervention and for a multinational military action are NOT in the Frente Amplio or Coallition but they are undoubtedly opposition… in fact Many are against the possibility of chavistas in the Gobierno de transición as Guaidó as always been open and willing to have, so they have radicals and moderates, and they act independently of one another. You need to update the narrative.

Ask your sibiling what they studied in Primaria y Bachiderato, all Venezuelans for decades have been taught “Castellano y Literatura” from 1st grade to 5th of bachiderato not “Español”, that’s another particular thing that show disconnect with our reality, find commonly things we know and try to venezuelaplaning to us like some kind alternate reality… sorry if this came out harsh but it is unnerving.

Did you also remember 10 million percent inflation, 300k deaths from gun violence in 20 years and been a week without power or water? Man… Those false equivalencies are condescending and unemphatic check yourself.

1 Like

The problem I see with Guaido is that he has too many connections to right wingers here in the States. And trust me, these are the kind of folks that wouldn’t mind turning what’s left of your country into their little resource extraction site. It’s not to say that Maduro is the only alternative. I hope those leftists in Venezuela put forward an alternative to him and his cohorts, especially now that neoliberals across the world are fighting back with the help of actual fascists to keep anything close to social democracy (let alone socialism) from reasserting itself. So, here’s to hoping for happier endings for your country and your family.

8 Likes

How do you pronounce Cerveza?

Do you remember the inflation in the 80s? The 90s? I do. We talked about this before. Its true, Caracas is now much worse than it was. Much more dangerous. And the danger has spread everywhere. My business contacts tell me the same.

But for Venezuelasplaining, let me tell you why I wasnt surprised by Chavez winning that election. Back in 1994, my father died. He left money, half of his business, a house, and land for my half brothers. Within 1 month of his death, his business partner repudiated the deal. He said he wouldnt pay the children anything. I told him I would take him to court because we had a signed agreement. But when I tried to find a lawyer who would take the case in Cuidad Bolivar no one would help. The town is small (maybe 250k) and the small number of wealthy families didnt want to go against one of their own who was in a dispute with some mixed race kids who were part indigenous. The house was eventually bought by the tenant for half its value - once again who would take the case of 3 part indian kids?

My fathers business partner had the nerve to tell me that indigenous kids did not need money. In his words “they could go back to the jungle”.

I was not surprised Chavez won, and I am not surprised Chavismo still has support among the poorest. For sure,. I never forgot what I saw, or how clueless wealthy Venezuelans were in their attitudes back then.

I think this is the key point. Even if most of the country no longer supports Maduro, that does not mean they do support Guaido or Lopez. Which is why there is an effort to take power in an extra-judicial way, with the support of foreign powers. Because they would not win power in a legitimate election, even if there were free elections, unless they have control of all levers.

Ironically, I was born in Western Guyana - “Guiana inglesa”. Which I think means I am entitled to Venezuelan nationality if I want it. Might be useful cos I was thinking of buying real estate. My attitude is that business is business. I can see that the US is going to try and force regime change in Venezuela and they will eventually succeed. The only thing that stops them is their incompetence. You would need to offer most of the senior army officials homes and money in the US. And you need to do it in a way which cannot be taken back. Those guys know what will happen to them if the regime falls and a new government takes power. So to persuade them to leave you have to make them safe somewhere else.

So, for what little its worth, how many people do you think still support Chavismo? My guess is about 25-30%. The very poorest Venezuelans will probably never stop supporting them. In my opinion.

3 Likes

Over 150 comments and not a single reference to the Bay of Pigs? Neat.

4 Likes

Yes that’s troublesome, but is not a thing that can be avoided, We are aware of our usefulness in the coming elections; Trump is combating “Socialism” in home and abroad and that the thing we are props… If the democrats were in charge the US participation may not be so vocal and “mediatic” but the actions were been more or less the same. Sanctions and OFAC listings, plus diplomatic pressure. The Dem leadership has been supportive of Guaido and the efforts to get free election happen.
In my eyes they are in the word of Chis Rock: If you are Venezuelan…"you got to look at America a little bit different. You got to look at America like the uncle who paid for you to go to college, but who molested you.”

It is not pretty but is what we got. Hope you understand.

PS: also imagine the crappy situation we got here that our people are willing to voluntarily be mindful of Trump’s declarations and speeches like their life literally depends on that… it is terrible.

You confuse accent with language. I pronounce Cerveza in a way that anyone speaking Castellano can easily understand. Also:

Artículo 9. El idioma oficial es el castellano. Los idiomas indígenas también son de uso oficial para los pueblos indígenas y deben ser respetados en todo el territorio de la República, por constituir patrimonio cultural de la Nación y de la humanidad.

Español and Castellano are for Us the same, but we use the term Castellano in formal declarations and in schools, Are you gonna now explain to me what language I speak?

Yeap I do too. It was hard, now: Do you remember the Value of the Bolivar back then? Even devalued after El Viernes Negro? Do you remember the Oil Price in the 80s and 90s? And the Minimum wage back then? I member and you have no idea what is to be here right now the “data” does not give hunger or fear of dying if you fall ill. Again, please! Do not use false equivalences to try to somehow normalize our tragedy.

So Is resentment what fuels your bias? That’s respectable, (No joke) that is the main reason Chavez was so successful he reaped the fruit of that resentment that years the lack of recognition and disenfranchising poor people suffer, even then it was all a farce He enriched himself and his family the people that supported (or were close to him) Chavez in 99 are ALL millionaires now, back them they were common poor and middle class folks, now, they are spread around the world (not here) and none of them show even with a drop of remorse. HE left us in the hands of a group of criminals that rule a kleptocracy with no regard for human life and call themselves Socialist. He is all to blame for this mess.

I voted for Chavez I knew I was gonna win It was obvious most of us knew, the ones surprised where in disconnect of the reality on the people in the streets, just like now are people asking why Guaidó is there in the streets surrounded by hundreds of meters of pavement fill with people walking down the stair of Jose Felix Rivas and in the streets of Coro with no electrical power but illuminated with the crowd’s cellphone lights, all that with no Big security detail and no bullet proof vest. While Maduro is in a bunker in Fuerte Tiuna and talks to people carried on buses from every corner of the city in a high scaffold surrounded by several Cuban security agents or gives prerecorded TV declarations from undisclosed locations. “Beloved” my Venezuelan back side.

Again You need to update, People will elect or support anybody to get rid of Maduro, this is not 2009. Just like those surprised by Chavez win in 1999 you are clueless.

This is a false statement.

They already won an election in 2015 that’s why there has been no free elections since then, only the ones the chavistas are sure or have assurance of winning, read sham elections. Like the one in May and the one that “elected” the NCA. That is why they avoided the referendum of 2016 (illegally by the way) Please make the effort the subject Chavistas to the same standard you are so eager to use on everyone else in Venezuelan Politics.

15% tops It is not an ideological issue or a political calculation is a matter of survival and fear, the poorest people that have not left on foot crossing the Andes and are not tied to a regime’s social control program are not gonna support them anymore, the ones that still somehow in free and un-coerced elections vote for this regime are the smallest minority in this country, Now if chavismo controls the election and people are coerced and threaten with the usual trifecta of job, food and home taking away if they vote for anything not chavista that number could reach 20 or even 25… in either way the panacea of the wide support for chavista rule is a fairy tale. In my opinion, but there are polls a few click away for those interested.

1 Like

Not at all. I would just note that Madrilenos can be very snooty. And of course you make perfect sense. Spain has a number of dialects and separate languages.

Even more reason to make the issue fair elections and not attempt a coup. Power will change hands but in 20 years time everyone will remember the foreign intervention. It is not a way to make democratic institutions stronger.

Thank you. It is possible. I was told real estate prices are down 60% in Puerto Ordaz. People have been selling any asset to get money to leave. But I was told most of that was the security situation. It isnt safe in most places. What you say is consistent with that.

1 Like

Thank you for your perspective and detailed postings. Sounds like a real shit sandwich either way you look at it. I hope whatever transpires that things work out for you and your family.

2 Likes

Well yes are quite protective of our ways… absolutely can be snooty too and a bit self centered, my apologies if so.

I kind of disagree… but in a way, yeah you are right If the regime let some kind of democratic way to get out of this mess with them not ending in jail of exile; I’m sure the opposition… should and hopefully, will take it, In fact the NA had offered an amnesty and assurance of fair treatment to anyone willing to support the transition… but Please remember they had said publicly and repeatedly that “not by votes of by force they will give up power” and have kick the table of negotiations in 3 separate occasions, one them pissing off the Vatican Secretary of state that wrote a letter basically telling them liars plainly not trustworthy… that speaks volumes or the value of their word. What option is there left? Let the people keep dying and the rest starve or leave until we became like Cuba; a zombie country, proud (in propagandists showcases of patriotism) but empty inside and without future? They don’t want to solve anything, they want us to concede and curl up and take it with no end in sight to their rule.

EDIT: I found this video from a Colombian news reporter on a Chavista rally this May 1st, as all things chavista is artificial and is weird as hell. Note the Buses I told you about, the coercion, the fear to talk, the fear of been caught saying something “bad” and the guys in motorbikes keeping the “peace”.

Even then right now there no democratic institution left standing but the National Assembly if they concede in 20 years the legacy will be a “Democracy of the People” like North Korea just a name, A cruel irony. I prefer any other alternative.

You are welcome, Yes real state is way, way under Valued… many rich people are buying and building lot of stuff in real state, the idea is had a head start when things came back to normal… but it is a gamble, and is not just in Puerto Ordaz is all over the place and in all assets car, electronics and other values are been in fire sale for a couple of years due the crazy high offering of millions of people selling everything to leave my beat up 2000 Renault Clio in Cucuta, Colombia is sold for $2000 or $3000 US here I will be lucky if someone gives me $800 US for it.

“Las Invaciones” (people occupying your building of house that have more right than you if they just declared that the place is “vacant”) and the readiness of the regime to take what is not theirs, are looming risks to anyone willing to make business here… Another risk is been forced to deal with regime folks that have AFOC sanctions in their heads and look for ways to move money around using coerced 3th parties… is the real life version of a deal you cannot refuse… you can end up buying more than you bargain for.

1 Like

Just another neoliberal Democrat, our frontrunner, gung ho for the coup:

5 Likes

When do WE get legitimate internationally monitored elections?

9 Likes

It is almost the same declaration made in January by the International Socialist in their Meeting in Santo Domingo.

It is almost like some “neoliberal” and the Socialist are on the same page on this issue and the fringe is all confused and annoyed, and more notably ignoring the human cost for the sake of argument and electoral gain.

https://www.socialistinternational.org/councils/meeting-of-the-si-council-in-santo-domingo/declaration-on-venezuela/

The Council of the Socialist International (…) expressed its grave concern at the deepening political, economic and humanitarian crisis in Venezuela.

Expresses its enormous concern at the repression carried out against the Venezuelan people by the illegitimate regime of Nicolás Maduro

Recognises the efforts of Juan Guaidó, president of the National Assembly and recognised by a significant part of the international community as interim president of Venezuela, to bring about a transition to democracy, supported by the legitimate National Assembly.

the only way forward for Venezuela is the holding of new elections, overseen by a new, fully independent and impartial electoral authority

The main diference, The IS added the same clarification that Guaidó, the NA, El grupo de Lima, the EU and our own people had maintained until now.

…categorically rejects any form of external military intervention to bring about regime change in Venezuela…

que Gríngolas las que cargan algunos…

1 Like

I had heard of “Las Invaciones”, but I had not heard about the risk of being forced to help money launder. Very clever! Thanks for the heads up.

1 Like