Here is Nate Silver usefully doing the delegate math for our candidate to win the nomination for democratic socialist programs.
Skip to the chart. @anon50609448 — most of us I think are able to ignore the editorializing and poll fetish in this election year of new rules and hope.
*( why not) to vote for Bernie Sanders?
This is a easy question to answer, so Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton can win the democratic presidential nomination, then go forward in the general election and become the 45th President of the United States.
Don’t bring your fucking corporate apologist filth into this thread. We’ll flag your shitty astroturf if you post in here again.
…and have a nice day! 
Do you get paid by the word for your astroturfing? Why always mention her middle names?
Isn’t the answer to the former the answer to the latter?
Even a scarab beetle gotta get paid, son!
It is blatantly obvious that HRC vs Trump is a much riskier bet than Sanders vs Trump. If you want to ensure a non-fascist president, vote Bernie.
If you’re willing to risk a fascist president in order to ensure continued corporate dominance of American politics, vote Clinton.
It’s it just proper manners when referring to royalty, Sir Daneel De’Ath D’Melzaa Gonville?
Are your political views to the left* or right of Bernie Sanders?
0 voters
*yeah, yeah, one axis isn’t enough etc etc, you know what I mean
That chart is helpful as a kind of scorecard, but I’d like to see some kind of analysis of actual results to their predictions. I mean, check out the chart at the end of this March 15 article:
It predicted a Sanders win in Idaho and Utah with 57 and 59 percent of the vote. The real results were 78 and 79 percent.
In that March 15 piece they predict a Clinton win in California with 53%. In the chart you link from March 30 they’ve got Sanders taking half the delegates plus one. If the polls went up 5% for Sanders in the last two weeks, and he overperformed polling in 5 out of 6 states by double digits, would it really be a “miracle” for him to win California by 15 points? If he needed to win California 80-20 I’d call that a miracle. but a 15 point lead is only 58-42, and while I won’t be shocked if he doesn’t win by that margin, I also won’t be shocked if he wins 65-35, which in itself would take enormous pressure off the rest of that chart.
It just seem like if in the last two weeks you were wrong by 11, 13, 18, 20, and 21 points, you might start to increase your estimates of your real margins of error…
Well, yeah, you might if you weren’t beholden to the same corporate sponsors that are insisting on installing Clinton as the nominee. (Granted, in this case it appears to only be two corporate sponsors, but it’s Disney and Hearst.)
I agree it’s mainly useful now as just a convenient spot to check delegate math. The Sanders campaign shows how active organizing and solidarity trumps polling.
I think Clinton could definitely find a way to lose to Trump with a combination of:
Any other combination I can imagine of Dem/Rep I think the Democrats win handily. Well, I could imagine Clinton losing to Kasich in the lowest voter turnout election ever, just before the creation of the new party that will win the next election on a platform of literally executing the current Democrat and Republican leadership.
Clinton would be more likely to lose to Kasich than anyone else. (mind you, I thought at the start of this that she’d get the nomination easily and then lose to Scott Walker in the general, so perhaps ignore me…)
Luckily the GOP seem determined to not pick him anyway.
Well, he can’t win the primary without some extreme nonsense that would alienate the Republican votes to the extent that 40%+ wouldn’t turn out to vote. But there is a chance that a nominated Clinton would also be the result of such nonsense. That’s the Clinton vs. Kasich where Kasich would probably win just because he’s viewed so much less unfavourably than Clinton.
If Clinton actually gets more non-super delegates in the primaries and Kasich gets picked by chicanery then Clinton should destroy him since the Democratic party will not have imploded and disaffected Sanders voters are not going to jump ship to a mainstream Republican candidate.
And if you picked Walker over Clinton pre-Trump then I wouldn’t be too hard on yourself. A bit like picking the Giants to beat the Raiders before you know about the 9.3 earthquake that is going to happen in the first quarter (that they will then decide to play through).
She’s already doing this. I keep hearing that young, new voters plan on voting for Trump if Sanders doesn’t get the nomination. She’s playing with fire because a lot of the population is ready to burn the whole thing down.
Last August we didn’t expect Trump and we didn’t expect Leicester City to be top of the Premier League with just over a month of the season left. Gary Lineker presenting match of the day in his underwear is far more preferable to Trump being anywhere near the White House though.
Never had a moment’s doubt, myself. Still time for them to screw it up, though.
When I listed my three things I thought Clinton could do to lose, I think she is likely to do all three. I think she is already taking Sanders votes for granted, and is already unlikable enough that Trump might not cross a line with his attacks. Whether she and her campaign can make anyone feel like she is worth voting for (as opposed to just trying to play the “can’t let Trump win” card) remains to be seen.
I guess it’s more like my advice for what she should do if she wants to beat Trump: 1. Shrug off insults rather than getting angry about them, even if they are absurdly awful and crass (“I really don’t care what he says about me” is a much better answer than “He ought to apologize to women.”); 2. Present a positive policy vision on some area people care about - literally just find any reason that people would vote for you other than you being the only rational choice; 3. Explain to Sanders supporters what she learned by being challenged by Sanders, and how it will affect the way she governs that so many people prefer him over her - make people feel listened to. Even without any of that she might win because people really don’t like Trump.
