2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine (Part 1)


That’s too subtle, and war crimes trials are too far off. They should have made it more immediate and ball-curdling, that all roads lead to Bayraktar.


The convoy should have lots of supply trucks with spare tires, because even normally wear and combat take a toll. That they abandoned part of their air defense has to mean something.

Q: How long does it take the supply truck to fix a flat?
A: That depends on how many flats they brought with them.


I dunno, man. Ever try to change a car tire in the mud? Never mind something that large. And how likely would the support vehicle be to get stuck?


One very good lesson learned from the Cuban Missile Crisis was that clear, direct and timely communication between the chief players is essential to averting the worst outcome. I wonder who is talking to who right now, and if they’re smart enough and wise enough to halt this shitshow.


Text of the memorandum


SECOND CLAUSE. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and The United States of America reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defense or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.


I have to say, that I did not see coming. Then again, Ahmadinejad sometimes seems the very definition of the word “unpredictable”.


There were a couple of protests in Iran. I was (perhaps overly) amused that they seemed to be deploying the familiar argot of Iranian protest, hastily repurposed (“Death to Putin”, “Russian Embassy is a den of spies”)


certainly ain’t jfk and kruschev :disappointed:


The Ukrainian Embassy in Japan has deleted a Tweet calling for foreign volunteers to fight for Ukraine after some 70 Japanese citizens (including over 50 who have served in Japan’s self-defense forces) contacted the embassy to take them up on their offer. This is because the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is telling citizens not to travel to Ukraine and telling citizens in Ukraine to flee immediately.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian Embassy has reported that, as of March 1, they had already received some 2 billion Yen (around 18 million USD) in private donations from over 60,000 Japanese citizens.

At the same time, Don Quixote (a chain of discount retail shops) is committing to helping 100 Ukrainian refugees resettle in Japan with direct support and employment.


I found it interesting that while the ex-military, ex-intelligence does implicate that Russia is not winning the war, he doesn’t say Ukraine is not loosing it, either.

I’ve seen another statement by a German ex-military, another NATO general. His conclusion was that Ukraine cannot win this war. But to win, Russia would either have to break morale by flattening whole cities or would have to go into the one thing all soldiers dread: urban warfare. By his assessment, that would mean Guerilla warfare for the Ukrainian side. This could mean a very long war, indeed.

Asked about what he thought about the Russian announced re:deterrent forces, i.e. the nuclear option, I took a away from what he was saying that tactical nuclear warfare would be a possibility. Flattening of cities could mean exactly this. Hiroshima and Nagasaki were mentioned. Hence the openness for dialogue and facekeeping for Russia would be essential.

If I interpreted correctly and anticipate correctly, then he expects this war to end in negotiations, with the Ukrainian government resigning, the country not joining NATO but possibly the EU in the nearer future (that’s a serious problem for the EU, by the way), Russia to withdraw to the “autonomous” “people’s Republics” and the Western allies of Ukraine trying to keep their faces. All this, however, depending on the position of China in the matter.

That’s a very different storytelling, but I would bet that Petraeus’s interview leaves enough room for the same interpretation.

TL;DR: I don’t trust his spin.

To the other matter:

This might have to do with how old you were in the 1990s, and where you’ve grown up, I think.

For many, many Europeans, the very same was true in case of the war in former Yugoslavia. This was, IMO, one if not the major reason why Germany, and a Green minister in particular, was willing to break the greatest taboo of German foreign policy.

Your argument still holds true. For many people in Europe, this war is exactly what you described. That doesn’t make the tribalism less racist. But it explains the emotional aspects of it, at least to me.

It is hard work to un-learn racism, to break habits, and question our emotions - or lack of emotions.

This is the core of humanity.
We need to repeat that more often.


Breaking in German news:

Volkswagen declared that they cease production in and imports to Russia with immediate effect.

I think this is Volkswagen Group, not just the one brand of cars.



Toyota is also ceasing production activities at their factory in Saint Petersburg from tomorrow until “the foreseeable future.”


Great! Now do Newsmax.