2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine (Part 1)

I use hedge words when I don’t know. I’m not a foreign policy expert or a Russian oligarch, so I don’t know for certain and won’t claim to.

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This echos something Beau said the other day. If the Ukrainians are successful in their defense, largely on their own (with donated arms), and get some continued support to rebuild, they stand to become a real power in Europe.

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Like, buy weapons and forge alliances? Maybe make some rockin’ rah-rah videos up front? I’ve got to give Ukraine a lot of credit for their messaging; it’s brilliantly on point, and maybe some of it has been in the vault for a while since they saw the signs.

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That was the first thing that came to mind. I have no idea if this is even true but I loved reading it. I can imagine Ukraine taking that money (“billions”??) and using it to counter-bribe officials back in Moscow. . . .

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That contains information I would not have chosen to disclose, if I were actively involved.

I'll put this behind this and that...

now uses the Starlink satellite system, supplied by Elon Musk, to feed live data to Ukrainian artillery units, allowing them to zero in on Russian targets.

Yeah, that’s not a good idea to tell anyone what equipment you are using in a war zone. And this? Probably very bad idea?

Well, IDKS, but the donor said something like it.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1499472139333746691?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1499472139333746691|twgr^|twcon^s1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nzherald.co.nz%2Fbusiness%2Felon-musks-warning-over-spacexs-starlink-system-in-ukraine-use-with-caution%2FUILIANT3RPEVU2UXX7YYX7U3NE%2F

Others seemed to say the same:
https://www.reuters.com/technology/ukraine-gets-starlink-internet-terminals-friendly-warning-about-safety-2022-02-28/

Well, IDK about it, but others are 'splaining:
wireless - How to reduce/mitigate the degree to which a Starlink terminal user in a war zone is giving their position in real time? - Information Security Stack Exchange

Anyway, I would have taken a very cautious approach.

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(The conclusion is no.)

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Assuming it isn’t carefully crafted misinformation for Russian military intelligence’s eyes.

ETA: I can imagine a lot of NATO satellite imagery and AWACS/other SIGINT information on troop movements flowing to Ukraine that they would rather explain with plucky drone operators, because Putin has said that providing info like that is an act of war.

Not that that takes anything away from the heroism of those people, who I am sure are doing important work.

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It wouldn’t be a good idea. The transmissions from the Starlink earth units should be very distinctive and could be easily targeted by signal-homing missiles – if the Russians were able to react in real time and make field modifications, but their command-control-intel loops don’t seem very functional.

eta: As I recall from when Elon made his usual pointless gesture, there weren’t any Starlink units in Ukraine at the time, and I can’t see deploying new tech straight out into the field, but :man_shrugging:

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This Up Here GIF by Chord Overstreet

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The head of Ukrainian military intelligence claims to have sources inside the Russian presidential administration as well as access to Russian government computer networks. These claims could be smokescreens for each other or for intelligence from foreign governments. They could also be psyops to stir up paranoia and disrupt the workings of government.

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They almost certainly are intelligence from NATO aligned governments. Reason I’d say that / guess that is that if he DID have information from internal russian security networks, the response to an infiltration like that is to either feed it bad information or shut it down and switch it up. The Russians haven’t seemed to be feeding bad info, and they’ve not switched up their command and comms (as that would mean the Ukrainian Intelligence wouldn’t have that access anymore), so it’s all likely cover for how they’re really getting that information.

Which… likely… is backchanneled from us and the other five eyes nations.

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It’s not much of a stretch to conclude that greedy and corrupt back-stabbing crooks for whom billions of dollars aren’t enough can be bought off if it means a few extra bucks in their offshore bank accounts. The question for Putin isn’t which henchman is the traitor but which one isn’t the traitor.

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He did send units. Main criticism stems from basically these units being useless in the war front where they are needed; basically another example of his “brilliant but profoundly flawed and short-sighted” approach to almost everything he does.

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Kinzinger is not a moderate Republican; he only seems to be next to the monsters that have taken over the GOP. His seat was once held by Jon Anderson, an actual moderate Republican. Kinzinger uses his platform for things like supporting bans on abortion after 6 weeks and opposing gun control. As I said above, I would rather hear less of that bullshit.

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@anon67050589 didn’t say any of that. She noted that change will need to come from inside the party, that’s all. If Kinzinger and Cheney can be part of that, then that’s great.

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I saw other discussion that said these people specifically took the money but reported the bribery and FSB agents to the Ukrainian government.

It doesn’t look like Bellingcat has published the claim themselves yet. But they haven’t corrected the people who are putting it out there. And they’ve had major, longer running investigative pieces coming out more recently.

Having some one else drop the spicy (but simple) details ahead of time is kinda news promo 101.

So I would guess more details would be coming out later.

Kinzinger is retiring, not pursuing re-election this November. Like most GOP officials who have made a show of pushing back.

So it’s nice that’s he’s trying to help to legitimize the Jan 6th committee. But it’s hard to see it as anything but a bit of saving face on his way out the door. And there’s not much in terms of offering alternatives for conservatives or pushing back in this whole trend.

Voted 90%+ in line with Trump. These types have identical politics to the Trumpists.

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Will you people STOP putting words in @anon67050589 mouth, please. She never said she liked their politics… FFS.

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