I’d say the leaked victory gloat, bragging about how Russia has taken rightful charge of Ukraine, united Ukrainian people with Russia where they belong, and knocked over the global political system, should put an end to any daydreams – or nightmares – that this is what Putin wanted or tried to achieve.
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Technically it wasn’t leaked. It was published by mistake, perhaps because it was set up in advance and somebody forgot to get it stopped.
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Kadyrov gets a promotion.
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I sincerely hope he finds rewriting history much more difficult now than it was in the old Soviet days. Barring a North Korea-style isolation, the Russian people will have access to Western media reports, and hopefully will recognize being gaslighted.
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What can most of them do though? The regular people especially the poor ones and the many ethnic minorities? I doubt they will revolt really and if they try they can still be further suppressed.
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You might be right, but also people thought the same about the Eastern Bloc at the end of the Cold War. Especially after the crack down against Solidarity in Poland in the early 80s:
But it was the mass movement of people who brought down those governments (along with the Soviet Union refusing to step in after the mid 1980s). It was just as difficult then because organizations like the KGB and the Stasi were so willing to use violence to enforce compliance, but it can happen again.
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Nah - not buying it.
Putin was high on his own supply. Russia is much more of a paper tiger than everyone thought. It’s going to really downgrade their influence going forward.
More on their lack of equipment:
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Thread on oligarch and peace negotiator Roman Abramovich from one of the researchers at the Anti-Corruption Foundation (Alexey Navalny’s organisation):
tl;dr
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Is he still alive?
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One always claims mistakes were planned
When risk is slight, one takes one’s stand
With much slight of hand
In politics, the art of the possible
Had a single one of these commentators imagined that might be Putin’s strategy before it turned out the Russian invasion was shockingly unprepared, and the Ukrainians incredibly determined to hold it off? Because as far as I can tell it basically took a month for anyone to figure out how to spin this as all according to any plan at all.
The tagline is already wrong. The best way to treat an adversary is according to the evidence, and history is full of people who screw up by imagining them invincible geniuses too. You’d think Trump would have taught us the dangers that come from imagining a pigeon crapping on the chessboard is really playing in some higher dimension. But of course this is Bedbug Stephens and the NYT, and they are dedicated to not learning anything about authoritarians.
Yes, possibly Putin can figure out how to get something out of this. But it’s pretty plain what his plan A was and that he didn’t start with a plan B. Pretending otherwise is just carrying water for him.
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Honestly, the way that some conservatives still seem determined to worship Putin tells us a lot…
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First, the image in the tweet says Krasny Octjabr. Second, seriously? Captain Ramius would like to have a word.
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All these responses to the Bret Stephens piece are all fair enough and probably spot on.
That said, I hate how giving Putin a “face-saving exit” is so discussed right now – in the mainstream press, in the government’s interviews, etc.
I feel like Russia is going to come out of this with something – something more than just Ukraine’s “neutrality,” probably more control of Crimea, or Donbas. And then he’s going to withdraw, but only if sanctions get lifted.
And the West are going to say “excellent, very good deal, and now we stopped the war.” And he’s going to have won something, even if it’s not what he originally intended, and at a huge cost to his people (but minimal cost to him). And Ukraine is going to be left holding the bag.
Someone tell me that I’m wrong, please. But it seems like the West have already sketched out that giving Putin something is the way they’ll end this.
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From a lot of the other reporting it sounds like “special operation” is the same language they use for internal security actions. Whether that’s militarized crack downs in places like Chechnya, breaking up protestors, or disappearing a few Generals with too much influence.
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Russia has had total control over Crimea since 2014, so do you mean something more, like a land corridor or recognition of Russian sovereignty?
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Which not a single one of us were advocating for… the reality is these conservatives, even as they publicly condemn Putin, love what he’s done in Russia and secretly support that here. The same people who keep trying to distance themselves from Trump, would happily support a more palatable fascist in his place. They are okay with force and oppression, so long as it succeeds and has some veneer of “democracy” and some success.
But what Putin wanted was re-forming the SU, and we know this because he’s said as much. He’s failed to do that, and has now been forced to pivot to this lesser goal. He wants to keep a toe-hold in the Donbas, because it means he can try again later.
Ukraine is NOT playing by the west’s playbook, either, is the thing. We are sending in weapons, etc, because Urkainians refused to let this be a cake walk for Putin, so NATO has no choice but to back them. As long as they stand strong, the west will support them.
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It may give him a theoretical opportunity to try again, but whatever ‘border’ ends up being ‘agreed’ is likely to be much better reinforced at that point, given his record (well, I certainly hope the West would assist with that). More to the point, as I noted a long way upthread…
It’s the land corridor to Crimea and the ports that are along the way that matter. If he can get as far as Odesa (seems less likely now, but who knows…) then he can dramatically constrain Ukraine’s economy by controlling its access to all ports.
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