2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine (Part 2)

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It looks like standard military competence on the part of the Ukrainian artillery unit. It’s amusing to the the reaction of the Russian propagandist, who seems a bit peeved that they’re ruining his story before he and his crew start peeing their pants.* However, calling this a “sign of hope” is being overly optimistic.

[* to be clear, I’d be peeing my pants too if I found myself under artillery fire. That’s why, unlike this Russian clown, I make the choice to avoid situations where it might happen.]

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I guess file under “fuck around and find out”.

So hopefully this is showing that Ukraine can counter attack missile strikes as they happen.

That video I posted above said that on Sunday Ukraine mounted two counter offensives, so it will be interesting to see if they can reclaim area or not. Fingers crossed.

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Is anyone else puzzled by the sheer persistence of what is either delusional levels of optimism or an implicit belief that a Ukrainian loss that can be loosely described as ‘peace’ is acceptable(despite exactly such a thing notably not working out in Crimea not long ago)?

When the aggressor started the fight on the theory that it would be a cakewalk against a foe too dangerous and degenerate to be allowed to exist; how could one possibly avoid humiliating them except by losing catastrophically?

I could see that being sound, if obvious, advice if there was no Russian self-image on the line and ‘humiliation’ would require specific discretionary war-memorial desecration and internet trash talking and such; but that’s not the situation here: failing to win decisively has already been humiliating; and each further departure from decisive and total victory will be additionally humiliating.

Does anyone have a sense of whether Macron just underestimates how invested Russia is, and believes that there is a loss condition that will just blow over; or whether this is effectively a proposal that any outcome must give them some measure of victory to salvage their feelings with?

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Not re Russian invasion of Ukraine, but … karma…

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As thousands of people have descended on The Mall in London to celebrate the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee, a few hundred pro democracy supporters have assembled further down Whitehall.

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“Oh dear, can someone make this mess go away and put everything back the way it was before?”

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From the Guardian liveblog:

19m ago10.24

Ukraine’s air force and the Kyiv mayor have said Russian Tu-95 strategic bombers launched missiles at Kyiv from the Caspian Sea early on Sunday and two of the Ukrainian capital’s eastern districts were rocked by explosions in an attack that targeted railway infrastructure in Kyiv. The mayor, Vitaly Klitschko said at least one person was taken to hospital; no deaths were immediately reported.

Reuters reports:

Dark smoke rose into the sky above the Darnytskyi and Dniprovskyi districts where the explosions rang out.

The missiles were the first to hit the capital since late April when a Radio Liberty producer was killed when a Russian missile hit the building she lived in.

According to preliminary data, Russia launched missiles from Tu-95 aircraft from the Caspian Sea,” the Ukrainian air forces said in a statement.

Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak called on the west to impose more sanctions on Russia to punish it for the strikes and to supply more weapons to Ukraine.

The Kremlin resorts to new insidious attacks. Todays missile strikes at Kyiv have only one goal: kill as many as possible,” he wrote.*

The mayor of the historic town of Brovary some 12 miles (12km) from Kyiv’s centre, urged people to remain inside their houses as there had been reports of the smell of soot coming from the smoke.

Updated at 10.30 BST

11m ago10.33

Russian strikes destroyed tanks and other armoured vehicles on the outskirts of Kyiv that had been provided to Ukraine by European countries, Russia’s defence ministry said on Sunday.

The ministry’s statement came after the Ukrainian capital experienced by several explosions early on Sunday.

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Is it just me - or does the Guardian run a lot of op eds with a lot of criticism directed at the west, and not Russia?

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Simon Jenkins: The West is doing too much.
Simon Tisdall: The West is not doing enough.

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Thread:

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And of course the reason NATO naval forces aren’t wiping the Russian Black Sea Fleet out to allow Ukraine’s grain export go unimpeded is the same reason NATO air forces didn’t and don’t enforce a no-flight zone over Ukraine (ie. shoot down all Russian aircraft going there): they do not want to risk WW3.

Tisdall is an idiot if he still hasn’t understood this.

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The west has a lot more cash and arms floating around than Russia. All combined. So, good luck with that.

We used to have more open communication with the Russian military. There are these backdoor communications where the defense departments basically will let others know, look, our leader is blowing off steam or what ever, but we don’t have any actual plans to do anything. IIRC there was a call put in like that after Trump lost the election.

If we still had that with Russia, we could maybe better gauge how far they would actually go.

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And yet Russia will say it’s those dratted western sanctions that hamper grain exports.

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All the “WW3 is good actually” people are either geniuses (maybe) or dangerous idiots (more likely)

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“Now look what you made me do!”

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