Brazil Parakeet
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Of course, that doesnât matter if Ukraine, and the West backing Ukraine, donât believe Russia is going to really use tactical nukes.
And they donât, because because such an escalation would be almost suicidal for Russians. Things wouldnât immediately go to canned sunshine being opened over the Red Square in megaton amounts, but stuff like the Crimea and the Russian oblasts bordering Ukraine going dark because a couple of dozen critical substations suddenly ate a NATO cruise missile, and the electrical grid fell over and died, is a distinct possibility.
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Iâm not particularly worried about this. From how it looks now, the fake referendums and the implication that as a result the âspecial military operationâ will be upgraded into a âwarâ is mainly a face-saving way to mobilize additional strength domestically, and not something that is going to make much difference internationally. At the start of the invasion, Putin made a big deal that no conscripts would be sent to fight, but now theyâre running out of manpower and need a general mobilization, so theyâre doing this dog and pony show to claim that the circumstances have changed, and that Putin isnât a lying failure. But in the end, manpower shortage is just one of many problems plaguing the Russian invasion, and the rest (lack of motivation, disorganized logistics, shortage of functional equipment etc.) will be either unaffected or made worse by the arrival of a large number of conscripts who really donât want to be fighting.
As for the nuke threats, the main question, as always, is how the world would react to a nuclear first strike, and I donât think formal annexation of occupied territories would change the calculations for anyone involved. The referendums will be illegitimate for any number of reasons and remain unrecognized. Russia has already been making nuclear threats, and no doubt those will continue, but nothing will change to make the use of a nuke any less of a bad idea than it is now.
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Did I mention existential crisis? That would be this.
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I look forward to seeing Stevan Seagal and Gerard Depardieu on the front lines.
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It would be a twisted version of the POUM.
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Or, and I hold this to be low-probability, a semi-face-saving reason to leave when Russia loses the referendum.
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First they would have to decide that the result will be no.
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Do they even make tactical mobility scooters? 
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Of course.
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Send the Gravy Seals and Meal Team 6 to the front!
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Post-Soviet Russia really canât get its story straight about if itâs better than the West because itâs less bigoted than we are or if itâs better than the West because itâs even more bigoted than we are 
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Doubtful. Also, Putin cheated in the Crimea referendum in 2014 even though he didnât have to. This will be more of the same.
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