Short thread:
As far as the prisoner exchanges go, I can see one snag being that many Russian POWs may actually refuse to be exchanged, mainly for fear of reprisal and punishment. I can easily imagine Ukraine wanting to exchange more, none of the POWs they took are eager to return home.
I too suspect the main use the newly mobilized soldiers is. not for the invasion, but for quelling protests and purging the ranks once Russia pulls out of the war. Maybe the Wagner Group is in for their own Night of the Long Knives?
It’s not yet as bad as Stalin tossing returning POWs right into the gulag. However, going back to an economically depressed pariah state where there’s a chance they will be permanently stuck in the military is also a prospect many will want to avoid. This will be especially the case for those soldiers from Russia’s periphery who’ve learned that poor rural Ukrainians have a much better lifestyle than their counterparts in the Russian Federation.
You can’t say they’re not on-brand.
On Sept. 22, Peskov denied that Russia will call up one million people, speaking with the Russian state-controlled news agency RIA Novosti.
Well, we know what that means. Every denial from Peskov might as well be a promise.
It will be interesting to see what the logistics of moving all these people end up looking like.
My understanding is that there’s significant centralization in terms of logistical infrastructure and rail hubs centered on the capital; but were I dictator having a rough patch I’d be really, really, jumpy about the prospect of having a bunch of hastily armed conscripts(selected from among those who could not be previously motivated to sign up by either patriotism or cash, so presumably even less enthusiastic about being there) in the vicinity of the capital and with the option to just make a day trip of it after a week of logistical confusion, drinking, and stewing in their grievances; rather than obediently waiting to get shipped off to die.
I assume that they can stick to less favorable routes; albeit at greater delay and cost; or just try to be real careful; but that prospect has to be making some people rather nervous.
In other reports some anti-war/mobilisation protestors are being handed draft papers.
