2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine (Part 3)

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Carrying Ukrainian POWs, at least 65 dead.

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At least that’s what Russian sources claim. I wouldn’t believe anything they say unless it’s confirmed independently.

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Downed plane: Still unanswered questions amid Ukraine and Russia claims

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Russian woman jailed for 27 years for cafe killing

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I want to share with you a study by Bulgarian OSINT researcher Stanimir
@delfoo
Dobrev on the losses of the Russian army in Ukraine and comment on these findings.

Mr. Dobrev spent a long time analyzing a major Russian telegram channel that published obituaries of Russian military personnel killed in Ukraine. The dynamics, geography and specifying the units led him to the following conclusions:

:black_small_square:In 2022, the Russian Federation managed to conceal its losses quite well, as most eliminated occupiers were contractors.

:black_small_square:Manpower losses in the first year of the full-scale war were generally lower than in 2023. The “Wagner Group” started using recruited prisoners as early as 2022, but the operational secrecy of the mercenaries was generally higher than that of the Russian Armed Forces, so their obituary losses are much worse recorded.

:black_small_square:Since the beginning of 2023, losses have increased dramatically. In particular, at the expense of the 155th Marine Brigade of the Russian Navy, which was crushed during an attempt to attack Vuhledar, as well as militants from certain districts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Russian commanders during this period began to more actively mix experienced fighters with mobilized fighters, regardless of which units were compatible with each other. After that, the units of the so-called “LDPR” again began to be more actively driven to assaults, which led to a gradual grinding down of both categories — experienced fighters and mobilized fighters.

:black_small_square:Russian losses increased again with the start of the Ukrainian offensive. Losses were recorded not only on the main offensive axis, but also on islands on the Dnipro River and near Bakhmut. According to reports on the channel, it is confirmed that the Russian command drowned some of its troops when it blew up the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant. In the southern direction, the Russians increasingly relied on replenishing the units that suffered losses with mobilized forces, particularly within the 810th Marine Brigade. At the same time, their ability to move new units to this section of the front was limited. Near Bakhmut, the occupiers relied even more heavily on undertrained personnel to replenish shattered units. Many of these replacements, especially those recruited among prisoners, had only 2-3 weeks of combat training before being sent to the front line. This tactic of plugging holes with fresh recruits resulted in very high casualties.

:black_small_square:The current situation in the Russian Armed Forces has further deteriorated. The current level of mobilization is barely enough to keep up the intensity of fighting and to advance at an extremely slow pace little by little. However, to do so, it is necessary to continue replenishing shattered units with poorly trained recruits. At the same time, some separate units (created back in 2022) are still kept in reserve — no casualties among them have been recorded. To increase the intensity of combat operations, the Kremlin needs to launch a larger mobilization wave like the one that took place in the fall of 2022 — but the Russian leadership still does not dare to do so.

:black_small_square:The situation with experienced units in the Russian Armed Forces is extremely bad - there are very few of them left.

My thoughts on this are:

:small_blue_diamond: Russia will not stop at any loss of manpower to achieve its goals and Russia has a huge human resource compared to Ukraine.

:small_blue_diamond:We should not think that human losses will lead to any changes or unrest in Russia. Russians are ready to join the army and fight.

:small_blue_diamond:Most likely, mass mobilization will begin in Russia after Putin’s “election”. Now I am inclined to think that it will not be announced officially, but will be hidden, or in the form of recruiting contractors. This will become clear later.

:small_blue_diamond:While Russia is sending prisoners as cannon fodder, Ukraine is losing its best people.

:small_blue_diamond:Timely deliveries of ammunition, air defense systems, and long-range weapons (to disrupt logistical chains in the Russian rear) are becoming crucial to saving Ukrainian lives.

:small_blue_diamond:Russia is on the military track and its population is prepared for a protracted major war. Russia is becoming more and more dangerous. This is not a “small regional conflict” that can be forgotten.

:small_blue_diamond:Time is of the essence. The window of opportunity is closing fast. Russia has proven that it can learn from its mistakes and it will not stop.

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Saturday

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Related:

Make no mistake: West Africa is a weapon in the eyes of Russia.

I am sadly convinced that this would not have been possible without the war in Libya. I think 2011 will be seen as a turning point in history. And the grain price hikes in 2007/2008 caused this.

It is multifactorial, but it I can oversimplify to a narrative: energy prices and speculation made grain prices go bonkers.

People in the Middle East and North Africa blamed their autocratic-cleptocratic governments. “Social” media gave them a platform for organisation and delivered both fake and real news which made the situation extremely volatile. Libya and Syria became two major battlegrounds for the US and Russia.

The US-driven fall of Libya made West Africa unstable, moving refugees as well as weapons and thugs into the region. Also, the fall of Libya ended financial and technical support for the cliques and autocrats in power in West Africa, which kept completely off-radar for most people in the so-called West.

Meanwhile, the EU and Ukraine wanted to sign an association agreement, basically creating a free trade zone within a decade. Russia threatened to invade Crimea, Yanukovich caved, Euromaidan happened. Russia was not amused.

The US and the EU stabilised Egypt, with the collateral damage of democratic values. On the other hand, Syrian civil war and the war against IS, with the US being involved directly and indirectly, caused a large number of displaced people to search refuge in Europe. Russia, via Belarus, actively promoted an influx of refugees via Poland.

Russia unofficially annexed Crimea, strategically positioning itself to use grain and energy as direct weapons. Russian-driven stabilisation (read: war against the own population) of Syria caused even more refugees. Russian green men shot down a passenger plane in Ukraine. Turkey shot down a Russian tactical bomber.

In Europe, the planes made headlines, however, the war on the ground seemed far away. But what to do about those refugees? Right-wing lunatics gained more and more traction, with the Anglo-Saxon transatlantic brotherhood of arseholes playing the system and bricking large parts of it for a time being. Brexit became a thing. The 45th POTUS became a thing. Russia fully invaded Ukraine. Grain prices once again soared.

It’s not a full circle, but in my narrative, there is a pattern.

Keep an eye on Africa. And keep in mind that climate is making an impact. We are in an El Niño after three years of La Niña, and the southern parts are prone to much stronger consequences than the north.

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Climate change was already playing a role at the time. It does not seem like a coincidence that the government of Syria fell apart after a multi-year drought of the sort the country didn’t normally experience. And that so many people reacted by throwing their support behind fascists over refugees is a bad sign for how we will handle it getting worse. :frowning:

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Exactly. I would argue it isn’t the reason for the multi-crisis, but it is very much connected.

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Putin’s Karelian hideaway

Russian President Vladimir Putin is believed to own a highly-guarded residence near Russia’s border with Finland, reports Ilta-Sanomat, citing the Moscow Times’ reporting of the Dossier Center, an investigative outlet.

Some 30 km from Finland in Russian Karelia, the residence allegedly belonging to Putin on the shore of Marjalahti Bay features two helipads, several yacht piers, a trout farm and a “cows for marbled beef production.”

The UK’s Mirror has said he shares the secret hideout with a scenic waterfall with his gymnast girlfriend. News reports have accused him of “stealing” the waterfall from a national park.

This isn’t the first time the spot has been linked to Putin. In 2015, a Helsingin Sanomat reporter’s family outing near the alleged holiday resort ended in a quick U-turn.

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Watch: Footage shows last residents’ struggle to leave Ukraine town

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