According to Der Spiegel magazine, the video conference was held on the WebEx platform, and not on a secret internal army network.
But…but why?
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Simon Jenkins is back to counsel against “escalation” and declare that western Europe has no strategic interest in kicking the Russian army out of Ukraine.
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I don’t know. Back then the Bundeswehr’s role was basically to be the speed bump that slows down the Red Army just long enough to send in the military.
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I just listened to the entire conversation on my lunch break and I have to say, I don’t really see it as scandalous at all. It’s a discussion about how they can practically manage a handover of Taurus missiles and the necessary training and mission planning in case politics decide that that’s what should happen. They discuss several options for transferring mission data to Ukraine (ranging from a secure standing data cable connecting the mission planning centre in Germany to Ukraine to putting the data on a harddrive and driving it by car to a handover in Poland).
It’s really just people doing their job: providing options to policymakers. They don’t even seem to be particularly keen to persuade the defense minister to choose a particular option.
The only slightly embarrassing thing is that they obliquely but openly discuss the presence of British, French (it’s unclear from the discussion whether they’re actually on the ground) and American personnel in Ukraine (“a lot of people with American accents and civilian clothes” is the quote).
Yes, they discuss an attack on the Crimean bridge, but only in the context of “this is likely what the Ukrainians want to use it for, so what data do we have that they would ask for in that case and could they do the planning themselves or would we need to do it”. Ammunition depots are the other likely use case they identify.
So, yeah, the fact that they were listened to in the first place is very embarrassing, but the conversation itself has probably not revealed anything to Russian intelligence they didn’t know anyway, nor is it particularly embarrassing for the German military.
One of the people on the call was in a hotel room in Singapore at the time. I assume that is why they used WebEx rather than dedicated secure hardware. I assume him being shadowed by Russian agents is also how they became aware of the video conference in the first place.
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As usual, i suspect Beau is on to something. What this mostly demonstrates is how scared the Russians are.
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From the Simon Jenkins piece:
Germany’s generals may want escalation, but its chancellor, Olaf Scholz, has long been cautious
They really don’t, though. As I said in my comment above, if you actually listen to the call, they’re really not that interested in swaying the decision either way. They just want to be ready to deliver if that’s what’s decided.
It would probably be a good idea for international media to find a German speaking journalist and actually have them listen to the call. And German media as well.
Western Europe has no conceivable interest in escalating the Ukraine war through a long-range missile exchange
It wouldn’t be an exchange, Simon. It’s not like Russia is holding back long range missiles that they would only use as a tit for tat. They’re using them right now against Ukrainian civilians.
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This activity in a more general sense is now seen as sinister by right-wing authoritarians around the world. Of course Putin would stoke that “deep state” paranoia (with his usual dash of gleeful hypocrisy).
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It would be in the strategic interest of Europe for The Guardian to stop publishing bad-faith bullshit from Simon Jenkins, and have him sink into (preferably penurious) obscurity.
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I’m surprised they managed to talk to each other at all, never mind other people being able to listen in, if they were using WebEx.
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Thank you for that effort.
The ‘obliquely’ part is crucial, I think. It’s good of you to have listened to the originally leaked recording, so you can judge yourself.
The news is clear on the interpretation that they did confirm the presence of British and French personnel in Ukraine.
Talking about people with accents, that’s something else entirely. There are, of course.
The interpretation of Plaincloths given on the Streitkräfte & Strategien podcast* is that in this case, they are discussing CIA operatives. However, it is known there are plenty of international volunteers, and especially from the US.
The German medic who died fighting for Ukraine – DW – 03/06/2024 — Diana Savita Wagner was a German medic fighting for Ukraine against Russia. This is her story:?mobileApp=true
'* Footnote for non-germanophones: the podcast mentioned is now twice-weekly source of high-quality context and opinions from a German public broadcaster. Not a common self-published vanity project, but serious journalism.
From what you describe, that’s really a good takeaway. Seems that the German media was to occupied wondering about 1234 and other passwords instead of listening to the thing.
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You can listen to it yourself below, if you want. It’s an interesting insight.
For the record, I ASSUME THE LINKED WEBSITE IS A RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA SITE, but it is the only one I could find that had the audio and a transcript. Having listened to it, the two are identical, although you can never know whether they manipulated the audio as well. Considering no such claim was made from the German side (and I assume the MAD has gone over it with a fine-toothed comb), it is probably accurate. (The transcript actually has some words marked as inaudible that are understandable from the audio with a bit of context and knowledge, so I assume it is an automatic transcription rather than one made by a GRU analyst, btw).
I agree that they are probably talking about intelligence officers, if not necessarily CIA. Although weapons specialists drawn from the military are probably also involved. This is the relevant part:
Und wenn ich die höhere Präzision haben will, also dann mit Satellitenbildern arbeiten und das Ziel modellieren muss, dann ist natürlich die Zeit nachher maßgeblich, und da bin ich auch schnell bei zwölf Stunden. Das ist dann jeweils abhängig von dem Ziel, also so habe ich im Detail noch nie geguckt, aber ich denke, möglich wird das auch sein. Da muss man nur sagen, wir brauchen eine Datenleitung, die das leisten kann.
Und glauben Sie denn… Ja, man muss ja immer davon ausgehen, was die Ukrainer dann mittlerweile sonst alles machen. Wir wissen ja auch, dass da viele Leute mit amerikanischem Akzent in Zivilklamotten rumlaufen. Das darf man sagen, dazu sind sie dann noch relativ schnell selbst in der Lage, weil die Satellitenaufnahmen, die haben sie alle. Da muss man auch davon ausgehen
So they’re saying that the Ukrainians can probably quickly learn to model the target approach themselves considering they have access to high quality satellite images and unspecified help from Americans. The most logical conclusion being that said Americans are helping with geospatial data and interpretation and with the setup of advanced weapons systems. It’s pretty clear that they’re not talking about American volunteers here, but about people being deployed with access to high-quality data and specific skills.
The British definitely, the French probably not, at least when it comes to the specific issue of missile loading:
Ne? also wenn’s zum Beispiel darum geht, die Missionsplanung zu machen, ich weiß wie es die Engländer machen, die machen es ja komplett im Reachback. Die haben auch paar Leute vor Ort, ähm, das machen sie, die Franzosen nicht. Also, sie QCen auch die Ukrainer beim Beladen des SCALP, ne, weil Storm Shadow und SCALPS sind rein vom technischen Aspekt relativ ähnlich. Da haben sie mir schon gesagt, ja, Herrgott, die würden auch den Ukrainern beim Taurus-Loading über die Schulter gucken
i.e. the British have someone in place checking that their Storm Shadows are being loaded correctly. They also do this for the French SCALPs, because the French don’t want to have people on the ground. And they have offered to do the same for the loading of the Tauruses. Interestingly, they also reveal that the British do the mission planning for Storm Shadow attacks themselves rather than letting the Ukrainians do them (“komplett im Reachback”)
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