I mean automatic triggers for going to war on behalf of one’s allies didn’t cause a problem when old Franz was assassinated by Gravilo Princip did it? That was fine, right?
Putin has been arguing that Ukraine being an independent country is an existential threat to Russia this whole time.
This isn’t about objective reality, but Putin’s preceptions and how that shapes his policy toward Ukraine…
He decided to invade it in 2014, because he said it was a threat.
As of early 2024, we estimate that Russia has a stockpile of approximately 4,380 nuclear warheads assigned for use by long-range strategic launchers and shorter-range tactical nuclear forces. This is a net decrease of approximately 109 warheads from last year, largely due to a change in our estimate of warheads assigned to non-strategic nuclear forces. Of the stockpiled warheads, approximately 1,710 strategic warheads are deployed: about 870 on land-based ballistic missiles, about 640 on submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and possibly 200 at heavy bomber bases. Approximately another 1,112 strategic warheads are in storage, along with about 1,558 nonstrategic warheads. In addition to the military stockpile for operational forces, a large number—approximately 1,200—of retired but still largely intact warheads await dismantlement, for a total inventory of approximately 5,580 warheads
But what do the folks who run the bulletin of atomic scientists know… /s
For real… dictators often operate on bully logic, and bully logic often demands going out in a blaze of glory rather than be shown to be weak… just look at what Trump has been doing since he lost in 2020… nothing but bully logic to show how strong and manly he is… Dictators who are having a rough time in their wars are not logical people and are not operating on a rational basis. What rational person would go with his hand out for arms from North Korea of ALL places… do any of us honestly think that NK is on the cutting edge for weapons! Dictators under duress are more prone to panicking and making awful decisions. If Hitler had beaten the US to an atomic bomb, he would have ordered a strike as best he could have from his bunker in Berlin. Dictators will happily take a whole bunch of people with them when they go down…
Oh yeah… not like Putin could push people out the window and replace those with yes men! /s
Putin’s Russia is NOT the Soviet Union, and we should not treat it as such. It is a very different place, with a much GREATER concentration of power in ONE man. Is it total? No, because no dictatorship is. But much closer to that under Putin.
Back a desperate man into a corner, who has deep delusions of grandeur, and he will make dangerous choices.
he has a lot more power than you’re allowing for, and he keeps taking people out. If anyone was going to topple him, it would have been that Wagner dipshit, but look what happened to him. He might not be an absolute dictator, but he is working to become that. He is not a rational actor here. If this was the Soviet era, yes, there were plenty of checks and balances, even during the Stalin era. There are FAR less now, under Putin. That’s just facts.
They did (if you mean me, which I assume you do).
Agreed… but I will say that the Soviet system was more robust about that kind of thing than Putin’s Russian empire is today.
My current hot take: the war is not going well for Putin by a long shot.
Considering he has to go hat in hand to North Korea to look for some sort of support is one sign, another how he replaced four defense ministers with personal relatives, it seems Russia is closer to a logistical collapse than many might suspect.
Oh sure, Russia may seem strong, but how many more troops can it truly commit to the invasion and maintain its borders? What if one of the remote provinces decides to secede? What if China decides to move the borders to “reclaim” territory they now decide was historically Chinese?
I truly feel this year or next we will be entering the “well, if I can’t have it nobody can” phase of the invasion. The tipping points will be how well his disinformation in Europe and North America work, if his allies at Sinclair Broadcasting do their job and get the Russian asset Trump back into office.
Strategic battlefield defeat would be end of Russia’s statehood, Putin claims
That’s funny, we were being told just yesterday that Putin couldn’t claim there was any existential threat to Russia by someone with an awful lot of certainty about what he might do.
That was fine, right?
