I saw tweets about that, with replies from nitwits convinced that “NO HAND HOLD” written in English on the flaps was somehow proof that the drone was not Iranian.
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Definitely a turn of phrase that will enter the popular vernacular, if there is any justice.
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That dog has the right idea…
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The counteroffensive of Ukraine has begun? It looks like yes
On the Zaporizhzhia front, the Armed Forces of Ukraine switched from preparatory strikes and attacks by light forces to a full-fledged attempt to break through the front in the Orikhiv region. All signs point to this. Namely:
— Using of great forces.
— Appearance of Leopard 2 tanks in battle.
— Attack in three directions at once and continuous pressure.
— The first results and positions recaptured from the Russian army.There is no point in guessing whether the breakthrough will be successful, especially since we do not fully understand what results the Armed Forces of Ukraine have already achieved. Simply because the only source of information is the Russian side. But even from their messages, you can learn some information.
First of all, they don’t hesitate to report on the local successes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine — the liberation of 1-3 small settlements or their outskirts. In addition, the rhetoric of the Z-channels is strongly reminiscent of the one that was at the very beginning of the Izium operation. It takes 2-3 days for them to begin to recognize the obvious. I do not rule out that the same thing may happen on the Zaporizhzhia front.
However, the attacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine cannot be taken too optimistically now either. As I said, so far we see only an attempt to break through. This is a war between two sides. And it isn’t at all necessary that the Ukrainian army will win all the battles. Now we need to observe and analyze what is happening, keeping a sober head. It is important that the main direction for the first attempt was exactly Melitopol. About why, in my opinion, it is preferable, I wrote back in the spring. In short, this is the closest road to the Crimea and to the “land corridor” of the Russian army.
I note that any offensive implies losses. You remember the classic formula of 3 to 1 and even 5 to 1 — the necessary advantage of the attacking side over the defending one. Including margin for losses. Therefore, there is no need to perceive the demonstrated photos and videos with burning Ukrainian equipment as some kind of critical factor. It is better to soberly evaluate what we see. In the meantime, there are a maximum of 4 Leopard 2 tanks (1 destroyed and 3 damaged) and about 10 armored personnel carriers / infantry fighting vehicles. If this is all that the Russian side can show as “huge losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine”, then the offensive is super-successful. And most importantly, losses at the very first stage of a breakthrough are always the largest. But what will happen after this breakthrough and whose army will lose more — we’ll see.
In the next 1-2 days I’m waiting for an update of the situation. Either the Armed Forces of Ukraine will continue to break through and the truth will no longer be hidden - there will be evidence of a successful attack. Or they will withdraw and inflict new blows somewhere in neighboring areas. In the worst case scenario, the AFU has a couple of weeks for such attempts. And if they all turn out to be unsuccessful, then it will already be possible to talk about a certain failure of the offensive, and the troops will have to reorganize and change their plans. But something tells me we won’t see it.
This map is from my post on April 21st. I highlighted on it the directions in which strikes are now taking place, and the thin arrows are what I assumed back then.
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BBC News - Ukraine’s counter-offensive against Russia under way
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Isn’t this a bit like Clevon Little taking himself hostage? I don’t know, but it kinda feels like it.
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Not much compared to the scale of the dam demolition, but still worth a laugh.
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Images are appearing of Bradleys and Leos that have been disabled, but you know the first thing that I noticed was how many of these are reparable, and how many did the main job of protecting the crew. Lots of blown track, indicating mines, but the good bit is the Ukrainian army now also has armored recovery vehicles. So a lot of these “lost” units will be towed back and repaired, and back in business.
But again, it seems they did their most important job:
they saved the lives of their crew and the soldiers riding them.
Wishing the Ukrainians the best of luck in driving out the invaders.
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Thomas Theiner wrote a thread about the mistakes made there, which Threadreaderapp can’t unroll for some reason.
https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1667266063501873153
It also won’t onebox, perhaps for the same reason.
ETA:
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“They blew the track off!” - yes thats why we carry spare track sections and spare road wheels, and we train to repair it. You dont call a car destroyed if it has a flat tire.
What did you do in your military time? I dont recall. 11M?
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So to summarise (and lower the need to visit Twitter), the biggest error was not waiting for air defense. He mentions the air defense guns, but the question I have that no one seems to be asking is if there are air superiority drones out there: drones designed to take out other spotter drones?
Also, it’s noted by the author that this is the only imagery of a failed attack, suggesting that the dozens of other attacks like it have done far better. It’s hard to say because Ukrainians are much better at communication security.
And yes, the commander who went ahead without proper protection from Russian drones and other aerial artillery spotting needs to be reprimanded.
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