What’s a grad rocket?
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A top Moscow-backed official in part of Ukraine controlled by Russia has said that the collapse of the giant Nova Kakhovka dam had handed the Russian military a tactical advantage.
Ukraine and Russia blame each other for the dam’s destruction, which has sent flood waters across a war zone and forced thousands to flee. Some experts say the dam may have collapsed due to earlier damage and intense pressure on it, Reuters reported.
Vladimir Saldo, the Russian-installed governor of part of Ukraine’s southern Kherson region controlled by Moscow, said he believed Kyiv was to blame for the disaster, but that the tragedy had handed an advantage to the Russian military.
“In military terms, the situation has worked out in a way that is operationally and tactically in favour of Russian forces,” Saldo told pro-Kremlin TV presenter Vladimir Solovyov.
He said the dam’s destruction and resulting flood waters would make it easier for Russia to defend against any Ukrainian counter-offensive in the area.
“They have hurt themselves by doing this. Their calculation was that by blowing up the dam they would give some strategic or operational advantage to the Ukrainian armed forces. But they will not be able to do anything,” he said.
“Our armed forces now have an open space in front of them across which they can see who is trying to cross the Dnipro River and how. And it will be impossible for them to get through via the Kakhovka reservoir if they try.”
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Whatever else is going on in that statement. it’s an interesting implicit statement that Russia doesn’t have offensive capabilities in this area.
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And also add in, who has the longer range artillery? I don’t think a clear area is quite as advantageous as he thinks it is.
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For sure. This source say that Ukrainian artillery can reach 50 miles, while Russian stuff reaches 43.
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A US expert on the Russian military has said he was sceptical the collapse of the massive Kakhovka dam would hamper Ukraine’s near-term military plans for a counter-offensive.
Michael Kofman, director of the Russian studies programme at the US-based CNA think-tank, said he doubted the dam’s destruction would have a “significant impact on Ukraine’s military operations”. He wrote on Twitter:
The Khakovka dam is at least 100 miles from where much of the activity might take place at its closest point.
He added:
A Ukrainian cross-river operation in southern Kherson, below the dam, was always a risky and therefore low-probability prospect. There is no evidence that such an operation was underway, or would have necessarily been a part of the Ukrainian offensive plans.
Prigozhin says that everything is ■■■■■.
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10,000 participants and 250 aircraft from 25 nations respond to a simulated attack on a NATO member country.
(It was planned a long time ago.)
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Or Badme.
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I have kept quiet on the counteroffensive and this is by design. But I want to say this:
The Russian troops at many parts of the frontline are getting pounded by tubed and rocket artillery, Storm Shadow, JDAMs etc. Sometimes tanks and IFVs join the fray. The long range strikes such as in Tokmak and Melitopol in the last hours are even more interesting.
Most if not all of that “repelled” attacks Russians claim are in fact them surviving barrage after another one and having a chance to report them. In some limited cases Ukrainian forces launch probing attacks and even get through. There are already permanent liberated areas, but that is not the purpose of probing attacks.
Those few videos which sometimes appear are almost all videos from Russian sources and obviously cherry-picked. But they are not impressive either. Yes, when an army advances or launches probing attacks there are inevitable losses. During D-Day allies lost 2000 men in the first hour. But the enemy loses far more and, more importantly, the enemy has already to react in a forced way.
The main strike hasn’t arrived, yet. It can arrive anywhere and anytime at the front, even areas which have not been intensively shelled. Btw. I’m still on track with my predictions. Russians, however, are currently burning down their limited (mobile) reserves which they have in order to deal with the current situation. Intelligence gathering plays an important role at this stage, too, without going into details.
Overall what I see right now is what I would expect from an Ukrainian counteroffensive. Keep calm and wait for the events to unfold.
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@gracchus Wagner-army feud watch:
Commander of the Russian 72nd Brigade, Roman Venevitin, who was previously captured and interrogated by Wagner, was released, and recorded the following statement.
Venevitin says Wagner is known for numerous cases of kidnapping Russian soldiers, threatening them with shooting, humiliating, torturing them, and driving to suicide. Venevitin refutes all claims made by Wagner including those related to claimed mining of Wagner’s rear positions in Bakhmut, despite having some “bright patches” in collective work.
This footage indicates a deep rift of mistrust and hatred between regular Russian army and Wagner PMC.
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I sure hope Prigozhin knows what he’s talking about.
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