Originally published at: Ukraine: we took hundreds of square miles of Russian territory
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Behold the Shirtless Wonder – too corrupt and incompetent to protect his own country.
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Going to Arm Chair General my opinion here: This offensive is like a “revanche”,
a medieval long range raid into your enemy’s interior to pillage and destroy , but not to permanently occupy the aforesaid . You could also compare it to Sherman’s
“March to the Sea” , where he did not occupy Confederate territory, but did destroy
the railroad system and the heart of the Confederate industrial/agricultural base.
Putin will have to mass a 3 to 1 force advantage to push Ukrainian forces out , definitely affecting Russian advances on other fronts. I’m interested in where that force exits Russian territory ~
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I’m sure that the Ukrainians know better than to paint themselves into a corner. Unlike that clown Putin.
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Ukraine obviously isn’t looking to permanently occupy Russia, or even necessarily to pillage and destroy anything. The “centrists” of the world have been asking for Russia and Ukraine to negotiate a peaceful resolution to the war ever since it started, but it was never clear what Ukraine was supposed to offer up in said negotiations.
Now Ukraine has something they can offer that doesn’t involve ceding their own sovereign territory.
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It sounds like the desperate Russian soldiers are the ones doing the pillaging in the Kursk region, robbing the abandoned houses of their own countrymen. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian army can screw up Russia’s entire rail and energy infrastructure just by holding their positions in the region and not damaging anything.
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Ukrainian forces captured the “Sudzha” gas metering station — a crucial part of the last remaining Russian pipeline still sending gas to Europe through Ukraine.
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What I’ve not been able to find, but would be very curious about, is a discussion of how the interests break down around the below little guy: I assume Gazprom prefers it in its current intact configuration; as do European buyers of Russian natural gas; but I’m less clear on whether Ukrainian forces would be inclined to leave it quietly or adjust it for the sort of big, messy, fuel/air explosion that will take a fair amount of fixing before they leave.
If Ukraine were of the impression that they were being otherwise properly supported by the buyers I’d assume that they wouldn’t see rocking the boat as a great idea: yes, that’s some currency going to the Russians; but if it helps keep western Europe’s cost of living and inflation in line it presumably reduces the political cost of providing arms and ammunition; but it seems like it would be pretty high on the ‘fuck it’ list if the impression exists either that the specific buyers benefitting are really just enjoying the lower prices; or that, despite Ukraine leaving that energy supply open certain leadership has not been doing what they can with the political latitude they’ve been given.
Aside from the gas terminal; are there other targets of interest in the area? Fuel terminals or refineries? Logistics (either worthwhile quantities of supplies that can be destroyed in storage or transit, or facilities that aren’t just a rail line on flat ground that could be rebuilt in a relative hurry); that sort of thing?
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Yeah, a few others touched on it, but I have a few theories on what will happen next.
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They fortify positions in Kursk enough to hold it, and when Russia diverts forces from Southern Ukraine, they will be able to push back in and reclaim their land.
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They just hold what they have in Kursk, and this creates an out for Putin. Because Ukraine wants ALL of their land back, before it would look like Russia completely capitulating. Giving up their gains and going home. Now they have a face-saving land swap where “we agree to return each other’s captured land.” (Hopefully this includes Crimea… not sure how that will pan out, but it should be part of Ukraine).
At any rate, it is wonderful to see their success. Russia is sending 60 year olds to die, and pulling out equipment from decades ago that was obsolete when it was made. They are shooting their own wounded and kicking out body bags of fallen comrades. There is a lot to be said about that and how it shows a complete lack of any sort of unit cohesion. They don’t have air superiority, and while I don’t know if Ukraine’s new F-16s will be a tide turner, it has to have some effect on Russian morale.
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The Ukrainains are clearly hoping that Russia will be forced to move troops from the frontlines in Ukraine, but I’ve read miltary analysts saying that Russia has plenty of reserves and can deal with Kursk without undermining operations in Ukraine.
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I’ve read back and forth about how much reserves Russia has, how long they can keep it up, and how effect these reserves are… If you keep throwing untrained bodies in shit equipment, they are just going to get ground up. Sure, there is some attrition with Ukraine losing troops and equipment. But I am seeing more and more dead old people, dead really young people, and Russians using everything from golf carts to electric scooters to outdated tanks surrounded by cope cages to get around.
So yes, they may keep their positions entrenched, but will they have the manpower to kick them out of Kursk? We will see. I do hope some masterful strategic planning can turn the tide and force a treaty.
If America was losing this much life, there would be constant protests across the use that would make the Iraq protests seem quaint. It really seems like in Russia, live is seen as cheap and hard and people dying is just the cost of doing business.
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I would love to see Ukraine march on Moscow.
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But I don’t see value for Ukraine for the metering station since the rest of the pipeline is in Ukraine. Unless they can use it to steal the gas from Russia
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This is just priceless:
Ukrainian soldiers have begun reviewing Russian restaurants and cafés on Google with wonderful compliments along the lines of
“Excellent food, but the parking spaces were too small for our Abrams tanks”,
and
“Great service, but the restaurant did not have tables for all 2,000 of us”,
etc., etc.
Putin indeed deserves every moment of this!
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Depends which reports you believe.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/14/world/europe/russia-ukraine-kursk-incursion-troops.html
Moscow has begun withdrawing some troops from Ukraine in an effort to repel Kyiv’s offensive into western Russia, according to United States and Ukrainian officials, but it remains unclear what impact, if any, that might have on the overall battlefield.
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Joke that has been circulating:
Putin, after 10 days of Kursk catastrophe, summons Stalin’s ghost :
Stalin: “What’s happened?”
Putin: “Nazis are at Kursk! My army is beaten! What should I do?”
Stalin: “Do like me 1943. Send best Ukrainian troops to the front, and ask the US for arms!”
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