Thatâs what Iâm hoping. The whole bullshit the other week about Russian nukes being placed in Belarus was simultaneously alarming, and also a bit âyeah, right, sureâ because why would Putin put them where Lukashenko had the ability to take control of them?
(Tho, whether theyâre usable if they are there by anyone other than the Russians, who knows?)
The whole thing is fucked, and gets more alarming by the day. My âwhy wonât he just die already?â list is huge, I tell you what
I would assume @gracchus is right, but Poland is taking no chances. Also, this is a display to stop any thoughts in that direction. Like: hey, weâre not just talking. Take one step on Polish soil and the whole of NATO is ready to bite your balls off. I heard a (translated) quote on Friday (forgot from which polish official) which went basically like: whoever thinks they could cross the border from Belarus to Poland is as good as dead.
However, it is a possibility I wouldnât rule out that Wagner mercenaries will engage in a provocative way. Ukraine is monitoring the activities by the PMC in Belarus, and while they publicly say that they are prepared for a possible attack in the north and donât worry too much about it, this would bind forces in a way they wonât like. Poland is showing force also to signal support IF. Which, of course, is a big IF. But I think it would play right into Putins hand if the disowned mercenaries, resident in another state, would attack Polish soldiers. Plausible deniability and all. âAn accident, noone wanted thatâ, even Lukashenko and the Putineska would ventilate. And talk about agents provocateur would muddy the waters further. NATO would be between a rock and a hard place to decide how to proceed further, I think.
This is just my mindâs games, but I definitely donât like that I canât say my mind is just overly creative on this. It isnât plausible right now, but it is a possibility. And I hate it.
Thereâs something else on mind.
One question I havenât heard about anything lately: what became of the refugees? Those who were stranded on the Belarussian side of border after Polish pushbacks, closing the border and allowing no journalists and humanitarian aid organisations into the areas?
The refugees still seem to be coming.
Russian officials are cracking down on âturbo-patriotsâ, volunteers and other âfascist scumâ, as claimed in Solovyevâs live show, following the arrest of Girkin. The host of the show says itâs time to âclear this space, only run fundraisers officiallyâ.
This messaging is important as it could be interpreted as a âdeclaration of warâ against all those endless Telegram admins and volunteers who raised funds for the Russian army but allowed themselves to criticise the authorities over the past 1,5 years.
Note that the leaked report names Solovyovâs talk show as a problem because his guests criticise the âauthoritiesâ. He needs to distance himself from the âhurrah-patriotsâ like Girkin by joining in the attacks on them.
Some other key notes from the meeting between the two:
A record number of western equipment was destroyed. In one day 20 Bradleys and 15 Leopards were destroyed (Putin)
Unilever to comply with Russian conscription law if staff called up
[âŚ]
[Unilver] was staying put and continuing its operations in Russia âboth to avoid the risk of our business ending up in the hands of the Russian state, either directly or indirectly, and to help protect our peopleâ.
So much for âprotect our peopleâ. Not that it was ever anything more than empty words from a multi-national corporationâs HR Culture.
something something Orson Scott Card
Short thread:
Since Russia killed the grain deal, the Danube ports (Reni, Izmail and Kiliia) have been the only remaining active Ukrainian sea ports because they can be entered via Romanian territorial waters, thus avoiding potential Russian attacks in Ukrainian waters. And they are busy - hereâs a view from Marine Traffic showing a lot of ships in the various branches of the Danube delta, and even more awaiting entry along the Romanian Black Sea coast:
Before the war, Reni largely served as the sea freight hub for the neighboring landlocked Moldova, but I assume now Ukraine canât afford not to use all available port infrastructure for its own exports. Hopefully, Ukraine can keep the ports reasonably protected from air attacks - Russia has no other way to stop shipping there that would not also constitute an act of war against NATO.
Dmitri Medvedev greets his fellow edgelord tr0ll.
Russian inflation is raging at 60%, not the reported 3.6%, thanks to the rubleâs âfreefallâ, top economist Steve Hanke says
Russian prison culture as the key to understanding Russian politics:
