Spitting Image is apparently returning.
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That part kills me. When the reporter asked about shutting down the pandemic response unit and he replied, “no, I don’t take any responsibility,” I wish they’d followed up by asking who was in charge and if we could talk to them, then.
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The primary is a sideshow. They are fighting tooth and nail because of a state supreme court election, which will allow them to continue to cheat in a state with a lot of electoral votes and a small enough margin to make cheating logistically possible. Wisconsin Supreme Court elections, 2020 - Ballotpedia
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Welcome to the New Normal™, updated daily.
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We didn’t. Just like it did not get back to pre-Black Death conditions… 
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Just like it did not get back to pre-Black Death conditions
What was the Plague’s death rate, about 25-30% wasn’t it?
So this one probably won’t spawn another renaissance either.
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Numbers aren’t certain (because it was the 14th century and they weren’t as into counting every person as we are today) and are hotly debated, but possibly up to 60% of the European population died, and the Afro-Eurasian population in total might have dropped from 475 to 375-350 million… It took nearly a century for European populations to reach the same levels again.
Now this is just the black death, not other plagues of the same disease. This was between the 1340s and 1350s, after the Mongolian empire had re-established the silk road and international trade between China and the Mediterranean basin (although it never entirely stopped, the Mongols just made it easier and safer).
Obviously, we don’t know what long-term changes this will make, but these events always have a long-term impact of some variety. Think about the changes that the AIDS crisis brought, to public health, to the structure of NYC, to sex and sexuality, to the LBGQT+ activism. Historical change was made because people made choices during the AIDS crisis. Same is true for our moment now.
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…and this is how we got to now:
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Speaking of population shifts, with everyone stuck in their houses, are we gonna have a population bubble of CoronaBoomers?
I don’t know… could be? But also given the economic impact this is having on many people, maybe not. Hard to think about having a new kid if you’re unsure that you’ll have employment in a few months, much less health insurance.
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The first thing that comes to mind is second guessing air travel from now on if not avoiding it completely. My car is my bubble now.
Flying petri dishes were bad enough before and the airports are just coronavirus buffets waiting to happen before and after the human sardine can.
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Yeah, that’s one thing. Air travel in recent years has come down in cost and has given millions access to international travel in a way that they have not before… but it is also an incredibly effective disease vector… More likely than air travel going away completely, I can see it becoming a luxury once again.
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They will find a way to charge people extra for “Social Distance Flying”.
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That’s a fair argument, and please understand, I’m not in the race for herd immunity. I just think it’s going to happen anyway.
Right now, also, the models have sharply revised downwards the numbers of deaths, even with social distancing/no quarantine/no stay at home orders.
As it stands, if we continue as we are now, by August we’ll be at 84,000 deaths and a decent enough herd immunity that deaths will level out. If we go back to social distancing from now in, we’ll be under the 200,000 .
The concern I have about all this is that as it works, as the stay at home works and flattens the curve/knocks the risk down, that republicans will pull the same shit that got pulled after Y2k, claiming, see, we ruined the economy on a lie.
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A good number of people (half? more?) think this is a temporary inconvenience that will go away soon. I hope their right, even though all data says otherwise.
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But to be fair, we are fucking things up worse than any other developed nation, by far.
When all the evidence points one way, and people believe something different, I think would best be described as “a delusion.” Obvious delusions generally don’t leave me very hopeful, but in this case the existence of the delusion means their subsequent behavior will ensure the opposite outcome…
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Pah!
People will go back to their normal ways of doing things because that’s what people do.
The 1918 flu pandemic killed as many as 50 million worldwide, but until Covid-19 most Americans were completely ignorant about it.
During the 80’s and 90’s, we were told constantly, “AIDS has changed the way we have sex forever. FOREVER!” Now many young gay men are having unprotected sex again. Condoms are for old people.
After 9/11, pundits warned us that irony and cynicism were dead. We were all going to be wholesome and candid and sincere from then on. Look how that turned out, I snarked.
Will anything be different? Some things will, and there is no knowing which ones. But as much as they can, Americans will go back to their old, familiar ways. And after scientists develop a vaccine and an effective treatment for the disease, Americans will forget all about it. It’s what people do.
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I’m a bit confused. Why the death count from the model you mention is higher if population goes to social distancing?
Also it’s a bit too early to tell if herd immunity will work out or or more waves of epidemic will come later.
