Thanks for the correction! I do assume voters have the party in mind when they do vote, though, yeah? Like which party is going to be in power…?
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Effin’ right they do. That’s a problem with a first-past-the-post parliamentary system: your one vote is covering too much ground at once, be it choice of local representative, be it choice of governing party, be it choice of head of government.
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The news came through today that Scotland has blocked the “right to buy” laws that allowed UK council tenants to buy their homes at a discount. This has reduced the stock of publicly-owned housing. So another one in the eye of the Tories. I’m thinking of moving north.
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If you have more information and/or links which would give us all a better understanding of the local political viewpoint, we would love to know more here on this thread.
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Yeah that’s what I meant. No german language, no naturalization. It’s just basic language skills on B1 level, most are able to achieve that level after 6-9 month attending the (subsidized!) german courses - IF you WANT to learn.
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David Allen Green has some very interesting things to say about Brexit, and one view is that Theresa May is giving the Brexit wing enough rope to hang themselves, and aiming to drag out the whole pre-Article 50 planning for as long as possible until the mood in the country changes or the EU decides to modify its policy towards the free movement of people.
She’s said she will work with Scotland, Northern Ireland, Gibraltar, Jersey, Guernsey and the Isle of Man to come up with an agreed plan. That will drag things out.
Given it’s unlikely Scotland and Northern Ireland will agree to whatever Brexit is defined as meaning, the result may be a second referendum where the UK is ask to choose between (a) Brexit but Scottish/Northern Irish independence or (b) a United Kingdom but no Brexit.
There has also been some talk of a three nation federation, comprising Scotland, Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.
If the mood doesn’t change, and sadly Regrexit is not large enough yet to overturn the referendum result, then the UK’s best bet is to try and get the Article 50 negotiation period extended to five year prior to triggering it. It took Greenland three years to negotiate leaving the EU - it’s the size of Croydon and had only one issue to resolve - fish. After triggering Article 50, the UK’s got two years and 99+ problems to resolve.
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Oops: yeah, I wanted to include something along the lines of “…though, to be fair, a lot of the electors don’t know who their local MP is, but they do know their party.”
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Interestingly you’ll notice in that poll right there support is ~2% higher than it was when the last vote happened. I don’t think many people are arguing that Brexit would lead to Scottish independence right away. But the vast disparity in the Brexit vote, and the closeness of the last Independence vote makes it eminently possible that Scotland could (and I think will) leave. Last time round the Scots were criticized for an awful lot of short comings in terms of planning actual independence. Ill conceived economic plan, no support from the EU etc. etc. But the day after Brexit Sturgeon made a really big show of starting to do the due diligence they didn’t do last time. With proper planning; the potential for EU support (the EU had an active interest in preventing Scottish independence last time, now that’s gotten complicated at least); one big, shiny, divisive issue to serve as an example of why independence is good; and an antagonistic Government in power at the UK to trolley it looks like given time they can actually make it happen. “Vote independence to be worse off” is a hard sell, “vote independence to stay well off” is less so.
I think it depends on how long they get to prep, how well they actually prepare, and what sort of outside support they get from the EU, Ireland, and the US. And of course how soon and how messy Brexit goes. The faster, messier, and more complete Brexit goes the more likely it is. But the longer and better planned Independence is the more likely it is. Those two are kind of at odds with each other, so its a bit like threading a needle. But I’m still convinced its more likely to happen than not.
I’m not having any luck finding current polling for Ireland at the moment. Opposition to independence is a lot greater in NI than it is in Scotland (while polling done around Brexit shows it was a lot closer in both NI and the Republic than any point I can remember in the past). But NI’s pathway out is a lot clearer than Scotland’s and basically side steps a lot of “how do we stay in the EU” problems. Again, not something that would necessarily happen today, but its a more likely possibility than it was 6 months ago. And will be more likely still if Scotland gets a vote or leaves.
My family in the Republic of Ireland seem really excited about this idea. They’re calling “The Gaelic League”. Basically a re-unified, or otherwise allied NI and Ireland + Scotland positioned as a direct Competitor to the UK. However I’m reasonably sure the idea is contingent on independence for Scotland and a successful Border Poll in Ireland. A lot of the ideas for special deals, complex arrangements etc. are obviated by the EU. One EU member nation (in this arrangement Ireland) can’t necessarily make deals of this sort independent of the EU. And Ireland isn’t in any situation leaving the EU. NI’s established legal pathway out of the UK is directly tied to re-unification. As I understand it there really isn’t a pathway in place for full on independence. Scotland seems to lack that to a certain extent as well, but its much clearer than for NI.
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Haggis is lovely; especially with chips.
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Don’t we need to re-negotiate the Good Friday Agreement if the UK leaves the EU? Wasn’t it ratified under some bit of International Law that is void if the UK does Brexit?
Does make it a bit of a pisser when your MP changes party though, mind.
(I’d imagine, has never happened to me).
A few times it hasn’t been. But, yeah, rare exceptions.
And Heath tried.
It wouldn’t surprise me. I’m sure there’s a convoluted way to avoid that if its an issue. But most things having to do with the Border and greater ROI involvement with the North ran through the EU. Brexit is an absolute disaster for that whole situation. I’m genuinely concerned about a return to bad shit in that regard. Brexit both feeds the angry nationalist narrative and was predicated on the kind of nasty racist and ethnic conflict that fed a lot of tension and violence on both sides (but seemingly more so for Unionists).
Also as to We. I am American. And I know we were involved in that, but my concern is down to a large amount of family in the Republic rather than direct effects or involvement personally. There seems to have been less active involvement on the US’s part in moderating that situation since Big Billy left office. And while I’m amenable to the US largely minding its on business world wide, I don’t think the reduction in US involvement in both Irelands bodes particularly well for what’s coming.
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love Nicola Sturgeon! Her twitter is my fav morning ritual. It’s like watching a master chess player play against a empty chair…I think she watched game of thrones and was like “queen of the north…yes!”
Good article. But this is the internet, and my area of expertise (kinda), so I’m nitpicking all the way with this one.
Okay let’s break this down.
As someone else has said, the referendum result in Scotland wasn’t quite a whisker. 5% is a bit big for that.
Also, In Scottish elections, Centre-left governments have been voted in, but never of Labour and the SNP together. Despite (or because of) being fairly politically close to one another on a number of issues, the two parties absolutely hate one another and have never worked together in government.
Actually, to digress here, to understand Scottish politics and the positions of the parties, you need at least one more axis in addition to the usual left-right / liberal-authoritarian split. Let’s call it pro-anti sovereignty.
Here’s the main Scottish political parties on that scale.
SNP- Very pro-independence (it’s kind of the reason they exist)
Green party- Pro-independence, but not as fervent, more in keeping with general decentralisation of everything.
Liberal Democrats- Officially their platform has always been UK wide federalism (with the nations and /or regions acting like US states or German Länder.)
Labour- Pro Devolution, so in favour of the current status quo.
Tories- Anti-devolution, but not actually stupid enough to advocate abolishing the Scottish Parliament.
Mainly the EU president at the time, who was Castillian. Bad timing.
Actually, May is considered fairly moderate for today’s Tories. Which should make you shudder.
Also, they’re the Scottish National party, not nationalist. Nitpicky, I know, but it’s one of those things that their opponents do, like calling the US Democratic party the “Democrat party”.
Okay, I had to laugh at that one. Damming with faint praise indeed.
Okay, I hated when people did this to Gordon Brown and I didn’t like him, and I still hate it when people are doing this to May and I don’t like her either (So bleeagh to you for making me defend her).
Because that’s not how it works. The UK doesn’t vote for a prime minister, regardless of what the press might say around election time. The Prime minister can be any MP who can command a majority in the House. That’s it. (Well, technically there’s a symbolic royal appointment, but that’s all). Because of the party system in the UK, it’s very likely that the PM will be the leader of the largest party but there are no rules governing that. There’s no need for the PM to be a member of a party at all. And there’s certainly nothing in any rulebook anywhere that states that you’re not a proper PM unless you’ve just won an election. Which is just as well for Winston Churchill, who would have been rather surprised to find out he wasn’t a “proper” prime minister for the entire span of world war two, having come to power not after a general election, but via the resignation of Chamberlain.
So, yeah. That kind of winds me up. Sorry.
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It’s not even that rare (at least recently). In my lifetime…
Callaghan, Major, Brown & May. vs. Thatcher, Blair & Cameron.
Although it’s worth noting that those 4 weren’t (so far) PM for anywhere near as long as the other three, and only Major subsequently won an election.
Judging by her first speech in front of 10 Downing Street, she’s more a One Nation Tory than a Thatcherite. There’s every indication the austerity measures will be replaced, with the economy “reset” (= lots of borrowing by the government). A lot of the measures she mentioned sounded remarkably like Ed Milliband’s plans from the last election.
One Nation Tories tend to come with an authoritarian streak, so expect more attempts to restrict the Internet.
Sometimes, the local MP is liked enough that the electors follow him/her to the new party. To wit: Scott Brison. The electors of Kings—Hants even approved of his wedding and his kids. He got the PM’s nod too.
Oblig:
Neither have many other Prime Ministers.
There have been 15 Prime Ministers since the end of WW2, of whom 6 came to power without a general election (7 if you count Anthony Eden who called and won an election immediately on becoming PM).
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During the '87 election I was living in a Tory enclave in a Labour area. The local Tory MP was a twit with neither wit nor presence, he ran his campaign entirely on a platform of “I’ll do whatever Maggie tells me to do.” Even my Conservative neighbors were shocked at that (though it didn’t keep them from voting for him).
For me that election was a reminder that the US doesn’t have a monopoly on nasty campaigning; here is a selection of ads from the runup to the election. (The one with the soldier appeared on the 2nd page of several papers a few days before the election, and was coupled with a narrative that if Labour won Russia would be marching into England the next day, ignoring the fact they’d have to pass through a few other countries and a bit of water first.)
By the way, for non-Brits who haven’t heard Nicola Sturgeon address her constituents, she is pretty incredible.
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