I’d be pretty much random name out of a phonebook at this time.
That said, 2016 is also a stark reminder that Democrats are unnaturally gifted at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Don’t take anything for granted. Vote.
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Precisely. We saw what smug complacency and business as usual got the Dems in 2016. 2020 has to be fought as if this is the last chance for liberal democracy in America, because it basically is.
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“barring a shock to the system”
Is “shock to the system” Russian for ‘Russia’?
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has developed a US election prediction model that performed very well in the 2018 midterms; she has since refined it based on the results of the election
Oh Good God. Are you really serious?
Well I have a boxing prediction program that did well for the last fight I looked at. I refined it based on the results.
Now I think it can predict any and all boxing results. Care to hit Vegas with me?
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So this guy picked Trump last time out, and has picked the winner 9 times in a row. Even his system is a little arbitrary and probably lucky, but I’d clearly put his method, based on track record, ahead of any system that hasn’t even been run through a real-time Presidential race yet.
9 of 9 beats 0 of 0 any time.
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Nothing is guaranteed in politics, that is for sure. And a lot can still happen between now and November. But I do think the Democrats have the stronger hand at the moment. And I think that arguments that ‘only’ a certain candidate can beat Trump are of no value. Do everything you can to support who you like in the primaries, then do everything you can to beat the Donald.
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Reposting general prognostications:
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GOP control of redstate electoral administration renders the majority of states extremely resistant to democratic reform.
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The only possible way to overcome that is via a turnout surge of sufficient magnitude that it overwhelms GOP efforts at voter suppression. “Likely” voters won’t cut it; unlikely voters are required.
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None of the establishment candidates have the slightest chance of generating the required turnout surge. The working class simply will not come out in sufficient numbers for yet another neoliberal imperialist.
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Bernie might be able to do it, although even then it’s a long shot. A new left candidate would have been better, but so far none have appeared.
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The Dem establishment and their tame media proxies will once again work flat-out throughout the primary campaign in order to prevent any non-establishment candidates from succeeding.
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If, by some miracle, a non-establishment left candidate makes it through the biased primary, the majority of the Democratic establishment will continue to work against them throughout the general. The Dem establishment would rather see a second Trump term than a leftist victory.
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Even if a general election victory occurs, the fight isn’t over. We still have an out-of-control militaristic empire, structural white supremacy, millions of fascists and climate change to deal with. And the clock is running very short.
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Didn’t a Democrat win the election last time? Didn’t every single poll predict she would win?
Nothing is certain. Ever.
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Clinton won the vote and lost the game. That says it’s a rigged game. Trump lost the vote and was installed. Dubya lost the vote and was installed. In gerrymandered states, GOPs get 40% of votes and take 60% of seats. The losers are installed.
How well has installing the losers worked out?
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Member of The Ground Zero Club myself.
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Remember Ahnold’s famous line from the movie.
It took four films (films, my ass) to kill the monster:
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Well, she did win the vote. But, because of technicalities of who lives on which side of imaginary borders, we are stuck with the loser.
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Well, which is it, is “left wing” bad, or is Trump good because he’s “left of Clinton”?
Or are we just throwing spaghetti at the wall to see which strands will stick?
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That’ must be one of those Trump honest-lies; which the opposite of actual honesty.
Don’t worry- he’ll still have the Jeffery Epstein vote locked up.
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Another prognostication:
It will be Biden v. Trump, and as you all know Biden drinks
So get ready for either more of the same from the Dems or total insanity from the terrorists, er I mean, GOP.
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I’ve said before, that at this point if the Democrats nominate a hat on a stick, I’m all in for STICK 2020. Heck, I would even vote for Williamson if she got the nomination.
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Word salad. Definitely just a word salad intended to derail. Which ironically shows how the pollster may be on to something, as the few who defend Trump online are either paid to do so or so deep in their own ghettos that they don’t realise just how hated they really are, and get in a snit when people don’t stand for their bullshit any more.
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In fairness to Nate Silver, this isn’t quite true. He doesn’t really hedge when the numbers don’t allow it. For example, in 2012 he allowed almost no chance that his numbers would be off–the polls were pretty consistent: Nov. 5: Late Poll Gains for Obama Leave Romney With Longer Odds | FiveThirtyEight
In 2018 he was very similarly confident about the broad strokes of the elections.
In 2016 he hedged like I haven’t seen before or since because polls had conflicting information that year.
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