An academic pollster explains why she thinks any Democratic nominee will win the presidency in 2020

As an aside, I haven’t seen any even vaguely left-leaning, progressive or liberal person in online discussions of 2020 election who is in any way overconfident or complacent. Rather, there seems to be a constant low-level tension and terror that something goes wrong somewhere and the world’s stuck with another four years of the Orange One. That is, when someone isn’t doommongering and predicting absolute defeat for no reason except that’s what always happens to Democrats (except in 2018, or 2012, or 2008…).

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I’m a Green and I vote Green, which in California means that a DEM will win anyway, and DEMs and I are washed-out in my GOP district. My basic position is Realistic Rad-Lib, meaning I expect futility. I’d vote DEM if I thought I’d make a difference.

No current DEM candidate appeals to me. Biden and Bernie are much too old. Warren and Harris are spotty but much better than others… but I’d still vote Green unless their California polls are bad, which is unlikely. Can any DEM arouse the undecided?

It’s what usually happens to the opposition party when a president runs for a second term. Usually the incumbent gets re-elected. “Trump will lose because he is clearly obviously terrible,” wasn’t good enough last time and it won’t be good enough next time.

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The advantage of voting D even if your district is clearly R is that the existence of a strong D presence enters into legislators’ political calculations and tempers their positions. It is something we complain about on the Left, when Democratic legislators in relatively conservative regions triangulate to mollify their Republican constituents, but it happens in the other direction as well, we just don’t acknowledge it as readily for the same reason most of us can’t tell a female tortoise from a male tortoise: from our perspective the difference is too subtle for us to recognize it.

Meanwhile, if you vote Green or Libertarian then frankly nobody on either side will try to cater to your position even slightly.

The advantage of voting D even if your district is clearly R is that the existence of a strong D presence enters into legislators’ political calculations and tempers their positions.

My rabid GOP state and federal reps in safe districts are not at all swayed by my Green presidential vote and Dem state votes.

Meanwhile, if you vote Green or Libertarian then frankly nobody on either side will try to cater to your position even slightly.

Would you rather vote for who/what you want, and lose, or for who/what you don’t want, and win? Anyway, Dem votes rule in California, so it’s safe to vote otherwise.

I’d rather try to make a difference, even against the odds, and even if that difference will be at best slight.

Will you make that difference by voting for who/what you don’t want?

Outside of primaries, I haven’t had an opportunity to vote for a candidate I was completely happy about since the 70s. This is a fact of life for anyone who is on the left end of the political spectrum. I think those votes did more good than either not voting or voting for a 3rd party would have done.

I’d amend that to a fact of life for anyone with any strongly held principles at all. The only person who you are going to agree 100% on everything is yourself. :slight_smile:

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But 2016!
Well 2018 was ok.
2020?

I don’t require complete agreement and happiness but I want more than picking the lesser of evils. I’ve long been a realistic Rad-Lib, aware that my vote is usually swamped-out. But that doesn’t stop me from voting my desires. I don’t vote for what I don’t want. That’s nutz.

That’s how you get the greater of two evils.

Again, my vote for Stein didn’t change California going for Clinton, who won the national vote but lost the rigged game – lost by about 75k votes in 3 rust-belt counties, many less than the nation’s disenfranchised. So the loser is installed. Yikes.

How do you like those lesser evils?

Oh fuck no – I often disagree with myself, loudly, even sober.

The fact that Clinton got a majority of the popular vote is useful in the political dialogue. As for Jill Stein, you can find my opinion of her back in the 2016 election threads; if she’s your definition of “voting my desires” then I don’t think we have enough common ground for dialogue.

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