Originally published at: FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver predicts who will be president but says not to trust his prediction - Boing Boing
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Few are able to say so little with so many words.
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Just shut the fuck up, Nate. You’re not helping.
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Data isn’t neutral, either Nate. As David Byrne once sang… note the highlighted line…
Facts are simple and facts are straight
Facts are lazy and facts are late
Facts all come with points of view
Facts don’t do what I want them to
Facts just twist the truth around
Facts are living turned inside out
Facts are getting the best of them
Facts are nothing on the face of things
But you know… men’s GUTS know things… /s
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6 years. Dems have over performed polls every election cycle since 2018.
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Fuck off, Nate Silver. Keep fucking off. Retire and do something productive with your life
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I would buy this…prior to Trump. Ain’t nobody saying they voted for Biden when they actually voted for Trump. And there’s damn sure not anyone actually forgetting who they voted for. Not with Trump. Now, a lot of people might be reluctant, for any number of reasons, to be honest with a pollster about who they voted for, but no one forgot.
I wouldn’t mind if he went back to playing online poker and proceeded to lose every penny he has.
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Exactly. I heard a couple of interviews with this grifter awhile back, promoting some oh so important book he’s recently published. He’s an eloquent wind blower of empty words that do little more than promote Nate Silver, Statistical Genius! Never mind, folks, that he’s often wrong (which never gets mentioned in such interviews).
Needless to say,
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Yet here’s an old political gut more worthy than Silver’s (at least) for trusting:
I’m Certain’: James Carville Makes Bold Election Prediction
Longtime Democratic operative James Carville is confident one candidate has it in the bag.
Updated Oct. 23 2024 3:28PM EDT / Published Oct. 23 2024 12:49PM EDT
The polls may be showing a dead heat, but one man says he’s “certain” of the 2024 election’s outcome: Kamala Harris will win, predicts James Carville, the longtime Democratic strategist.
In an op-ed for The New York Times, makes a bold prediction. “Today I am pulling my stool up to the political poker table to throw my chips all in: America, it will all be OK. Ms. Harris will be elected the next president of the United States,” he writes.
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Oh come on, I’m getting whiplash here!
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I’m not a big James Carville fan, but I’m inclined to agree with him.
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I have a feeling neither Harris nor Trump will win, and the election will be taken by Charlemagne’s ghost. Who do I need to speak to for national coverage? Or do I need to make a few more bad predictions first?
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Carville doesn’t exactly have a flawless track record when it comes to predictions either. He predicted in both 2016 and 2020 that Trump would drop out of the race and predicted in 2016 that Hillary would win in a landslide.
Just because people are famous for sharing their political insights on TV doesn’t mean they really have any better idea of what’s going to happen than the rest of us.
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Nate Silver went downhill when he started trying to be a pundit.
Ironically, his initial work was all about how to ignore pundits and get as much meaning out of polls as possible. Including when to say that they’re not making a definitive prediction, such as now.
As always, the advice for people remains the same- whatever the polls say, campaign like you’re a few points down and try to turn out every vote you do have, and win every vote you can,
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Terrifying. The race shouldn’t be this close. Donald Trump is a decades-long, money-laundering, tax-dodging criminal and Russian asset that never should have been allowed anywhere near the White House, let alone the presidency. And would have already been in prison but for the failure of our national security agencies to hold him accountable. And that was before he sullied the office, continued criming, and then incited a violent insurrection in an attempt to overturn the election and overthrow the government when the country said, ‘You’re fired!’ He belongs in prison, not sullying the office and the country yet again.
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Indeed. The fact the conversation can be had, even, is horrifying. Someone make it stop? Please?
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Just FYI for anyone who cares, since it isn’t clear in this summary of the story:
Silver left FiveThirtyEight a while back to create a new subscriber-funded substack channel, and he brought his election forecast model with him. (He owns the IP to that model.) So if you want to see his model’s predictions you have to pay him now.
After Silver left, FiveThirtyEight hired a new guy to create a whole new model. The new model has its critics and its defenders but it’s definitely at least an unproven model with no track record, so I certainly wouldn’t pay any attention to it at all. The site also still aggregates polls so if you just want to look up the latest polling averages for any given candidate in any given race with no forecasts or commentary, I guess it’s still useful for that.
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ok ok… taking @Brainspore to heart with his “doesn’t mean they really have any better idea of what’s going to happen than the rest of us” …no one is more “rest of us” than moi, and my tarot card deck ducktaped to seven old nvidia gpus running CUDA results in… (remember, this is worth every pfennig you paid for it!):
Harris will win the popular vote (and not insubstantially). And after a bit of nail-biting, she will win the electoral college … but wait 1.5 Arizona precincts will attempt to invalidate their own counts, and the republicans will attempt to get the case to their corrupt supreme court which will eventually not take the case, and after the strategic national reserve of antacids are exhausted Harris will certify her own election as president. …and i’m not normally known as an optimist, i assure you.
Next i predict the subsequent three commenters are even more trustworthy in their predictions than me.
oh, and it goes without saying (so why am i saying it?): get your butts out there and make everyone you think has three neurons to rub together vote!!
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Amen! How on dog’s green earth is this even remotely close? A man so manifestly incapable of doing the job properly, so over the top with every awful -ism known to humankind, so incompetent that when a real crisis came along and he couldn’t just tweet (Xit? is that what we are calling tweets now?) it away AND A MILLION AMERICANS DIED. Some studies indicate if we had a capable leader (cough Hillary cough) at the helm of the good ship USofA nearly half of those souls would still be alive today! The orange sh!tgibbon killed more Americans than Hitler and the entire Japanese war machine COMBINED!
He actively fantasizes about a ‘purge’ (or kristallnacht) of undesirables and enemies, plainly states he wants to use the military to round up dissenters/‘others’ and either deport or disappear millions.
He wants to BE Hitler. F!ck that.
How is this even close?
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