FiveThirtyEight is propped up by salary paid by Peter Thiel as an adviser to PT’s Polymarket prediction racket. So, he’s owned now.
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What would we do without Nate Silver to tell us that the next President of the United States will be either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris?
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Must be because nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American voter.
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Now he works for Peter Thiel-backed Polymarket, which is holding large bets for a Trump win. Hopefully he helps the company lose its shirt.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/polymarket-hires-nate-silver-taking-154956290.html
CryptoBros favor Trump? Who would have guessed!
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Exactly. Neither Silver (Thiel’s new pet) nor Carville (a last gasp of 1990s-vintage Third Way complacency) are very helpful, except in helping to promote the NYT’s horse race narrative.
More on that smug complacency…
If Carville wins his bet, he can’t conceive of his opponents trying to mug him for his winnings when he leaves the card room. No, if Harris wins it probably won’t be all OK.
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The state confirmed my mail on ballot was received.
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Mine was as well.
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Look man, can’t we just acknowledge that this guy doesn’t really know WTF he is talking about? I don’t think anyone does. There are too many factors and things are too close to have any real predictive powers beyond a guess.
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I put mine in the dropbox at city hall. No word back yet from California. Do they generally wait to process those?
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We voted on the first day of early voting here - hopelessly red Tennessee. We cast our COMPLETELY POINTLESS AND IGNORED BLUE VOTES out of symbolic gesture I guess? For the two completely unopposed Republican districts I wrote in “Inanimate Carbon Rod.” I was never able to get the Dem headquarters on the phone and the little hut they have was always closed so I couldn’t even get a yard sign. Not that it would have mattered here in cracker country.
ETA - America is not a democracy until the Electoral College is done away with and the President is elected by popular vote STATE MAJORITY BE DAMNED
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I don’t know about California, but in Maryland they don’t begin processing until 8 days before the early voting begins.
According to Ballotopedia.org California begins processing 29 days before the election, but results aren’t released until 8pm Election Day.
Maryland is nice in that they send a text message and email letting you know they mailed the ballot to you, that they received it, and then when they’ve processed it.
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I don’t think any vote is pointless, even if it won’t change the immediate results of an election.
Voting is as much an act of resistance as it is a civic duty. Not voting tells the fascists that they’ve won, you’ve capitulated, and they are unaccountable.
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I work nights. I cast my ballot the morning early voting opened in my state.
I did my bit!
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Fuck Nate Silver
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It will be until it isn’t. People used to say the same about GA, so know hope.
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If Silver says…
…then isn’t his Gut Report ™ irresponsible by definition?
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Go votes people. Don’t leave this to chance. Even if the outcome is not what I wished, I would rather know I tried than give up before it even begins.
Also this guy can fuck off. Unless he can read mind, like @MagicFox said, he more likely needs medical attention than ego to be stroked.
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I hear ya, friend. I already mailed in my vote in unchangingly blue MA, knowing that my support for Kamala is (mathematically speaking) meaningless. But you gotta do it.
I do think that, besides better reflecting what people actually want and not being some bullshit racist artifact, removing the Electoral College would drive voter engagement. I remember hearing interviews back in ye olden times, when they’d pretty much call the election on the night of, people on the west coast would lament that they wouldn’t even bother to go to the polls because it had already been decided by the time dinner was finished (even if that was not strictly true).
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I’ve read a couple of his newsletter posts. He’s basically been saying that the models that the likelihood for Trump winning is 50.1, and Kamala Harris is 49.9.
That might be frustrating as someone who wants to know RIGHT NOW that Trump has lost and will never be heard from again, but the reality seems to be that the swing states are too close to call. And that’s not really a surprise. In the last two elections, Donald’s shown he can get 47% of the vote and get just the right set of states to win the electoral vote. The same is true this election.
I know many Democrats are thinking this is going to be a big win for Kamala Harris. I certainly hope so. But I will be more surprised by that outcome than a close electoral contest.
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