Originally published at: https://boingboing.net/2020/01/08/aviation-experts-think-the-ira.html
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Well fuck.
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My big question here is why. What does Iran have to gain by shooting down a plane from The Ukraine? Were they acting for Russia? Looking the other way when Russia was up to something? Was there a specific passenger on it?
I know I am not all up to date with all the middle east political machinations but to shoot down that plane just seems dumb.
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My guess is a mistake if this ends up being the cause.
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International press is treating this story very differently than the American press. Which gets me to thinking, what if it was a US missle that brought it down?
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If the first OPS photo indeed shows a projectile hole, it appears to me to be an entrance hole (edges are bent down and into the wing), not an exit hole: meaning it was shot from above (e.g., from a drone, from nearby high ground).
EDIT: Doh! That’s the fin, not part of the wing.
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Yeah, I’m inclined to agree.
Let’s, you know, get the facts before making hard accusations. I’d think a plane getting shot down would have had some witnesses and/or something on the black box.
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Don’t attribute to malice that which can be explained by incompetence.
If it was shot down, I’m thinking it was some itchy Iranian SAM battery that screwed up. I’m sure the US military would know if it happened, based on SIGINT it intercepted, including RADINT, ELINT, COMINT and HUMINT.
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That’s the vertical fin, not the wing.
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While its a safe bet the pentagon knows exactly what happened, its also a safe bet they arent going to comment or explain anything unless/until the narrative suits US interests in the region. Which is why Im worried that they arent rigjt out in front of this thing.
The plane crashing for “technical reasons” was a huge red flag rigjt there.
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Personally I think, Iran accidentally shot it down with one of those unguided missiles.
If the Pentagon is responsible for it, sure. If not then I wouldn’t put so much blind faith in the American security and intelligence apparatus. We often don’t even have conclusive data on what caused our own planes to crash.
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Apparently the government of Iran is refusing to release the black box data at this time.
It’s hard to see the political advantage for Iran to shoot down this aircraft, but at the same time I hope that it’s not another incompetent SAM operator shooting down an airliner because he doesn’t know his ass from a hole in the ground. Maybe there was some VIP on board and this was an assassination with a whole lot of collateral damage?
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I don’t think the assumption needs to be Iran shooting it down at all and the idea of the US doing it fits much better. The US has previously shot down a civilian airliner in Iranian airspace and the Commander in Chief of the US military has reason to be less than thrilled with Ukraine. That being said I’ll wait until an actual investigation happens . Mechanical problems are perfectly reasonable for a country under heavy sanctions, Iranian military error is entirely possible given that they’ve been firing missles and the US is still on the table.
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Given its proximity to what appears to be impact damage from the ground, its possible that a rock thrown up from the crash could have made that hole. Either way I’m thinking that the “experts” might be just saying what they think people want to hear.
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Not releasing the black boxes is not uncommon. There’s broad international distrust that Boeing or the US FAA wouldn’t have motivation to suggest something other than equipment failure.
My primary reasons for thinking this could be an attack is that the plane’s vintage was 2016 (i.e. young), combined with the fact that it’s very rare for a mishap to occur at 8,000 feet. And of course the timing otherwise being extremely coincidental.
I have a tough time with the conspiracy theory that the US took this down. First, there’s a chasm of contrast between surgically executing a strategic military target (Soleimani) and blowing up a civilian aircraft. But even if you think I’m too naive to think the US could have done it, I’d bet on any military operation using rockets. So if those photos do show bullet wounds, I think that suggests a less clandestine attack (if an attack at all).
But how about this theory?: Iran (or Iranians, meaning not necessarily the government) takes down the plane and Iran in figuring that out refuses to release the boxes (and is quick to blame the equipment) knowing that Boeing - the US’s hallmark airline - is already on its heels, specifically in the 737 line (albeit this was not a MAX). Boeing was down 2% today in a strong market day.
Added final thought: the biggest counterargument to an attack in my mind is that no group has come out taking responsibility, which it seems most terrorist groups are pretty quick to do (sometimes even when there was no terrorist act). I dunno. We shall see.
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I strongly recommend airliners.net for some insights from actual airplane enthusiasts, pilots, and crew:
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This from Reuters a couple of hours ago.
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MH17 didn’t have anybody claiming responsibility either. In fact there was more rush to cover it up in the days following the incident. That’s one reason I was worried this was another fuckup.
But all of this is speculation. The real news won’t come out until the investigators start piecing together the debris and scouring all of the available data.
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Indeed, i’m no aircraft engineer, but i struggle to think of a situation where a large passenger plane explodes instantly, cutting off all telemetry in an instant, without weaponry being involved…
I’m not convinced even all engines failing and the fueltanks simultaneously igniting could manage that even.
