Technical problems — not missiles — may have downed Ukrainian airliner in Iran, say some intel experts

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Too early to tell one way or another. But either this is a hell of a coincidence, or Canada’s going to war (I really, really hope it’s the first).

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In 2012, there were two other UIA Boeing 737 incidents in regard to maintenance:


There have been recent terrorist attacks on Iran, and airliners shot down.

I tend to find with air incidents (in my grand career as an armchair observer), that it’s either so blindingly obvious that we can figure it out from youtube; or the first month’s worth of “theories” are absolutely bloody pointless.

And printing every theory you find adds little of value.


Judging from the video of the “fireball falling from the sky” that’s it’s direction of travel has a much more horizontal component to it (i.e. the video is about 30 seconds long and I assume there was additional time for the videographer to realize something was amiss and whip out his phone, whereas a falling object would take 21 seconds to fall the same 3000 feet, and plummeting aircraft will often be traveling much faster), which to me says that the wings and fuselage are at least partially intact, i.e. ruling out a large scale mid-air breakup. But it’s trailing a shit ton of burning fuel behind it meaning ruptured fuel tank(s).

About the last recorded ADS-B altitude report – a little under 8000 feet MSL. I think the in-flight cabin pressure for the type is 9000 feet, so the cabin pressure was nearly equal to the outside pressure, ruling out explosive decompression. There was no indication prior to the last received report of a sudden decrease in altitude. So whatever happened must have been catastrophic enough to disable avionics, rupture a fuel tank, and render the aircraft uncontrollable.

The equipment failure scenario would require an un-contained catastrophic engine failure, rupturing a wing fuel tank, causing a huge explosion, and severing hydraulic and electric lines. This sequence of events has probably happened in the past, but it’s exceedingly rare. Not going to speculate any further.


This story as spun is the most useless type of “reporting” there can be. You have no idea. We have no idea. Iran, Boeing, Ukraine… someone may have an informed idea, but it hasn’t been released yet. Please stop gawking and fomenting, and let facts of the story come out without trying to be ‘first’ to have guessed correctly.


Canada isn’t going to war over the accidental shoot-down of an airliner. If it was brought down by a Iranian SAM, which seems likely, it will be another accidental shoot-down like the USS Vincennes or Ukraine airliner disasters. The sort of collateral damage that always affects innocents when missiles start flying.


Thank you

And in both cases, the Iranians were not the perpetrators. The USA, its allies and their proxies were.

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Similar, but not equivalent.

There is a meaningful difference between:

a) Accidentally shooting down an airliner in your own territory during a period in which you have very good reason to suspect imminent attack, and

b) Accidentally shooting down an airliner over the targets territory, far from your own land, while acting as the de facto navy of a third country that is currently engaged in a brutal and unjustified war of conquest against the target.

But this is academic, anyway. So far there is no evidence establishing any link between the Iranians and the cause of this crash.

…derned Iranian power lines, 8000 feet in the air. No way I’d spot those.

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There were quite a few scientists and engineers (at least one aerospace) among the victims.

You’re probably right. I’m just getting jittery.

So I guess introducing an airplane that has enough technical problems to offer doubt to an airline crash being caused by a missile or a technical problem would be labeled a “long con”.

Like … “slam our planes into our buildings ? we can build that into your airliner” type evil.

“The official, Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, said that investigators were following up on unconfirmed reports that fragments of a Russian-made Tor surface-to-air missile — a system used by Iran — had been found near where the plane, a Boeing 737-800, came down.”

Emphasis on “unconfirmed,” but this is the first I have heard this.


BBC is reporting that US Mil picked up the missile launches.

I’d be willing to blame their needless deaths on trump regardless on who might have pulled the trigger.

Edit: BBC not CNN


sadly, on this one there is no shortage of bad guys to choose from. Of course, it is always the innocent who get hurt.


This was not a 737 MAX. It was a 737-800 which is a very common airplane that has NOT had major problems and which has NOT been grounded. If you take a long flight coast-to-coast across the US today, you may be flying in this same model.