Originally published at: https://boingboing.net/2020/01/09/highly-likely-iran-shot-do.html
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More horrible news. If someone was gunning for a US flight, they could have been thinking of this, unfortunately:
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So far the fallout from Trump’s escalation of tensions with Iran has already led to the deaths of at least 232 Iranian civilians, counting the 56 people reported dead in a stampede during Soleimani’s funeral. So there’s that many more families who will have reason to carry a grudge against the United States for generations to come.
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Some times coincidences are just that…
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I had wondered if this was a tangential attack on the US, given that the plane was a Boeing and Boeing’s stock took a hit after the crash. But that seems too arcane for reality, and with a very high cost for such a small, shakey potential payoff.
Also, forgive me if I don’t put much faith in US “intelligence sources.”
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Theres someone claiming to be a former AEGIS missle/radar tech on the reddit thread who says its quite possible the IFF transponder on the Airliner was malfunctioning; that coupled with Iran on high alert for a US attack, led to a mistake.
Depending on the level of alert, there’s a bunch of electronic and mechanical breaks that can be enabled or disabled in favor of automation to decrease response time.
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I’d like to know why this guy was filming a random patch of sky and non descriptive yard at exactly the moment tragedy struck.
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Lots of things are possible. But is there evidence of it?
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This. The rocket travels at 1000m/s, so not really much time to react to the sight and pull up the phone.
I still believe it is very likely that the plane was shot down though. Another option would ofc be the plane having a collision with a drone. I assume drones fly around with radars switched off. And drones in the vicinity would ofc be a reason for missile operators to be on edge.
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And if said drone was fitted with explosives…
A real quick way to fuck up an active airspace.
Hence restrictions around airports (for commercial drones).
Reuters just says “officials”, they don’t say “White House” or “intelligence” or whatever. At one time journalists would identify their sources or give some reason why not (at least “they were not authorized to speak”). Nowadays I consider these stories to be “planted” in the media. Why wouldn’t governments tell us these things openly and officially, if they are not lying.
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This. Usually, after a transportation accident of that magnitude, highly trained people from all affected nations work together for a year or longer until they reach their final conclusions on the how, what, and when. But in this case, not a few people will wait hardly 24 hours, to concur with unnamed US officials quoted in the third degree? Why? Because US intelligence officials are particularly impartial and trustworthy in matters regarding Iran (or Ukraine for that matter)? Or is it maybe because they are looking for safety from a scary and confusing world in simple and quick explanations?
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Intelligence officers don’t talk about things, especially when they are recently hot. Media reports tend to support their powerful State policies, which include propaganda.
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Given that the 1988 takedown was a message to the leader of Iran not to mess with the US, so too may this also be the same message.
ref this interview, which took place before the latest plane went down:
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Point well taken regarding not trusting The US government’s narrative, but to me the single most suspicious thing surrounding this event was that the Iranian government very quickly put out an official statement blaming “Techical Issues” for the crash when there’s no way any halfway competent investigation team would have reached ANY conclusion on the cause of the crash in that sort of timeframe, as you’ve already pointed out.
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I am leaning more towards one of those drones that the US already have lost over Iran. RQ-170 or similar models
I was looking at Flightradar the night in question. All flights were being funnelled into one single flight path. Easy for a stealth drone to move around in in the hope of not being detected. If the Ukrainian plane would have had a wacky transponder at the same time, it could mean disaster. Just a theory.
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“Technical issues” with a missile launch or drone perhaps.
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Exactly. This is blood on his hands. And very likely the only thing that will save his dumb ass from starting WWIII.
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Justin Trudeau is saying it outright, and Trump did his “lot’s of people are saying…” nonsense.
But yeah, I tend to think these narratives are all hogwash. Remember when Colin Powell told the UN about Iraq’s mobile weapons labs? Maybe some analysts somewhere believe this, and maybe it’s even true, but I believe these guys can convince themselves of anything.
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They also quickly said they wouldn’t be sharing the black boxes. It’s a Ukrainian jet; kind of seems like they should make the call about who gets access to the flight data recorders.
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