Dukakis led by 17 points in polls taken July 21
Also, Hilary Clinton led Donald Trump by 2% in the poll taken on November 8. That one had no margin of error (100% sample size).
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When your opponent is shooting himself - shut up and get out of the way.
There’s no legal requirement- but not doing so would hurt him. People want to see you debate, make your case and ask for their vote. Typically- it’s incumbents who try and skip debates.
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we’ve been here before
Yes, I’m old so this 1988 story still rings very true about polling in July:
Dukakis had a 17 point lead at the end of July, but after a scorched earth campaign that focused on prison furloughs and racist dog-whistles, he ended up losing by over 10 points. We won’t see a swing like that this time, but campaigns that center around security and order will tend toward the authoritarian.
Finally, these people love Trump, and they WILL vote.
We underestimated Trump’s connection with his base last time. His base is more committed now than it has ever been. So I take nothing for granted. Until I hear that Trump has conceded (or I see the Democratic candidate take the oath of office), I will act as if the current occupant is in the lead.
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Failure to appear for a debate would be such an admission of weakness that I can’t imagine Trump doing it.
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Trump seems to be taking this well.
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Whine, whine, whine. And to imagine that some people think this endless complaining and blaming everyone else is a sign of strength!
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“Buk-buk-buk-buk-bukaaawk!”
Yeah, he would give in before the second cock-crow, unless tied down by campaign staff.
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“If” is doing some truly herculean work in that tweet.
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He has already said he refuses to debate Biden, and all his talk has done little to erode his support.
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Unless it is a declaration of strength!
“I’d love to debate Biden. But you know what, he’s such a loser it wouldn’t be fair. Everyone tells me, don’t do it, go easy on the poor guy. He’s not all there, you know what I mean? They say he probably wouldn’t survive. Really, people, smart people, doctors, say he would die if he debated me. I’d kill him. really. No on purpose, but I’d kill him. So I say, fine, I’ll go easy on him. I won’t debate him. But it would’ve been the best ratings ever.”
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silvio_Berlusconi
Hello from Italy, we had a real estate mogul turne prime minister that got a tax fraud sentence and after the parole ended he was again in politics.
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It’s clear they fuck around if we don’t keep the pressure on them.
White people wearing Kentes, probably took them off immediately after the photo? Might as well hold a Bible upsidedown. These disconnected fools are all we have to lead us out of this mess, and it makes me weep.
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If they make it to the polls; don’t count C19 and the flouting of protective measures out just yet.
November is still a long time away.
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Can’t forget the electoral game. A handful of rural areas could ruin it for everyone.
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It is heartening, but there is still a long road to go. Biden will be his own worse enemy. Just get out to vote.
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Oh look, appropriation cosplay!
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I’ll venture one instance where polls mean something. They are, in a democratic society, a way of ensuring the democratic process actually worked. If the results of an election fall WAY outside of the range suggested by polling data, that should raise alarm bells for everyone. Polling can be seen as a way of keeping the electoral process transparent.
As Rob rightly points out though, we’re still a long way out from the election and the polls usually tighten leading up to an election as people come off the fence.
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Again - it’s not 2016. And we need to focus on what’s happening now and what our opportunities are now - and what Trump’s weaknesses are.
He’s weakening- and when he does enough- they’ll turn on him.
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To be fair, they are both backing legislation that is expected to include abolishment of qualified immunity and will establish a central national database of bad cops – two substantive reforms. Yes, the GOP “champions of small government and liberty” in the Senate will somehow find reason to defeat it in support of authoritarian agents of the state, but that’s another issue. I think even Chuck and Nancy know that, for their part, the usual Third-Way empty words and performative gestures alone won’t be enough this time.
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this has been stated and pointed out numerous times…if every eligible person votes; the GOP won’t win in any elections right down to town dog catcher.
Red voters are always motivated to vote to preserve their power structure. Blue voters need to take that power by the force of VOTING.
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