Originally published at: https://boingboing.net/2020/10/05/biden-soars-in-wsj-nbc-poll-after-trumps-disastrous-debate.html
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Great news, but the usual disclaimer applies for Dem establishment types: don’t get complacent, take no voter for granted, and fight as if the numbers were reversed.
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I do find it somewhat comforting that voting is already going on in the country. I voted almost two weeks ago.
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I never understand the value of these polls, to be honest. They’re basically measuring what a popular vote outcome would be, yes? But that’s not how the American system works. So what does it matter unless the poll is of a handful of swing counties in swing states? If this jump in national support is measuring some Orange County, CA republicans who finally found a piece of their soul, so what? It affects the outcome not at all because those 55 EC votes were already blue.
This is a good faith question- please help me out if I’m missing something.
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FiveThirtyEight still has Trump’s approval rating trending generally upwards since late July, going from just over 40% to 44.2% today. Such a strange and fickle field.
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The horse-race narrative must be maintained at all costs!
Actual reporting is a thing of memory and legend. In this house, polls go in the same place as the endless political mailers – the curbside recycle bin. 
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I’ve been wondering about this. It almost looks like there is a segment of people who decide to vote against him and then somehow feel more positively about him. It’s weird.
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This is why it is more important to pay attention to state level polls, particularly those of swing states.
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Their site’s poll tracker also doesn’t show Biden “soaring” after the debate—as Rob notes, this poll is an outlier. The average polling has been remarkably level and virtually unchanged in months.
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They feed directly into the horse race narrative that all media craves, they make the media’s job easier because they offer one number instead of complexity, and they let us pretend that our electoral system makes more sense than it does.
Aren’t those great enough reasons?
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NPR has been talking about this non-stop (because, well, they need something to talk about in this race). It makes sense, really. After 4 years, everyone knows what Trump is. If you have a soul, you’re voting against him; if you’re in his cult, nothing will change your mind. There are apparently still a few “undecided” voters out there, but it’s hard to imagine how anyone could be.
There are an appreciable number of 2016 Trump voters who have switched to not voting or Biden, but that happened years ago.
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Trump’s approval numbers are also the most stable in history. The slight upturn recently is still within the margin of error and he basically has been between 40 and 45 his entire first term no matter what actually happens. Again, it’s weird.
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For months, the news media in PA has been covering GOP supporters who have turned against 45, mostly because of his handling of the pandemic:
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Also his approval among Republicans has remained astonishingly high- like in the high 90s. I really can’t grok that, except maybe to ascribe it to the success of the Fox News propaganda machine? I get that many Republicans are one-issue voters, but still? After everything, 98% still thing he’s doing well?
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Aren’t the numbers of Republicans dwindling, basically distilling the supporters into the most fervent ones?
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When we use the term “cult” in regards to Trump supporters we aren’t being facetious.
It’s impossible to understand Trumpism through the lens of traditional politics, even through the lens of mainstream Republican politics. This is L. Ron Hubbard/Jim Jones/Marshall Applewhite/David Koresh territory.
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Neat.
Go out and vote.
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And ya’ll: wear your fucking masks! 
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But I heard Trump won the debate.
Trump said so himself.
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It seems that way. Would Trump’s losing (and imprisonment?) decrease or increase that trend?
