Biden holds double-digit lead in national poll

Originally published at: https://boingboing.net/2020/08/11/biden-holds-double-digit-lead.html

3 Likes

Here’s hoping this shit doesn’t tighten up enough to make it close enough to steal. It needs to be such a margin that McConnell and the GOP governors can’t even bring themselves to signing off on trying to throw out the results.

14 Likes

Neat.

Still, don’t rely on polls. Get out there and vote. Especially if you are in a battleground state.

17 Likes

Normally I’d consider this a good thing, but the polls assume people can vote, they never take into account orchestrated efforts to undermine the election either at the polling booths or in the courts.

7 Likes

:star: :star2: :star: :star2: :star: :star2: :star: :star2: :star:

:star: :star2: :star: :star2: :star: :star2: :star: :star2: :star:

Polls aren’t worth much this far out from the election. In July of 1988 Dukakis led a national poll by 17%.

15 Likes

Until he is firmly in office, I’ll hold off on any rejoicing. Even the day after a successful election I’ll still be holding my breath.

12 Likes

This is the God’s honest truth. I won’t relax until Il Douche is out the door and under indictment.

22 Likes

Historically they tend to bounce around a lot this time of year due to the “post-convention bounce” most candidates get (which is why Dukakis was doing so well in July of 1988), but this is still a historically strong for Biden to be in at this point in the election cycle.

But yes, complacency is a luxury we can’t afford.

12 Likes

don’t fuck it up you son of a bitch

5 Likes

That was a very exceptional situation. Also, it’s worth noting that today exactly 32 years later, Biden currently leads where Dukakis was on August 11th. Here’s the entry from Wikipedia:

A poll conducted on July 21 and 22 of 1988 found that Dukakis had expanded the size of his lead over Bush to 17 points, with 55% of voters surveyed saying they would prefer Dukakis to win, compared to 38% for Bush.[24] His lead soon began to shrink, however. For example, on July 30, Dukakis criticized the Reagan administration’s handling of ethical issues,[25] to which President Reagan himself responded by describing Dukakis as an “invalid”, after which his poll numbers dropped by 5 points overnight.[4] By August 11, Dukakis’ lead over Bush had shrunk to 7 points,[26] and by August 24, Bush had gained a 4-point lead over Dukakis. Of the dramatic shift in Dukakis’ poll numbers, Mervin Field said, “I have never seen anything like this, this kind of swing in favorability ratings, ever since I have seen polls, going back to 1936.”[27] Later that year, after the second Bush-Dukakis debate occurred on October 13, Dukakis’ numbers dropped by 7 points that night, largely due to his emotionless response to a question about whether he would support the death penalty for someone if they raped and murdered his wife, Kitty Dukakis.[28]

Dukakis was able to go from 40% in the early Spring to a peak of 54% in July and then finished at 45%. Biden has consistently led trump by at least a ~5% margin since the early Spring

4 Likes

Or dead. I still have ‘Stroke’ on my BINGO card…

16 Likes

One poll is one poll. Here’s how the averages stack up.

There’s only one poll that matters, however. Americans, please don’t fuck this up.

5 Likes

My regular reminder to the Dems to: 1) fight as if these numbers were reversed; and 2) remember that the Electoral College still exists. They won’t listen, but still…

Another question showed that an overwhelming number of voters, 72%, are now worried that election meddling will taint the result.

Meddling by both the GOP and by their Russian friends. And, reliable as always, the Know-Nothing 27% thinks the opposite.

9 Likes

This is a race of 5 or 6 swing states, nothing else matters, especially national polls.

2 Likes
13 Likes

Even with a double-digit lead, I wouldn’t count on that being true. Trump has made it clear he’s willing to break any law he can, he’s got Barr on his side, and his administration is apparently brainstorming to figure out every possible thing they can do (e.g. destroy the postal service), legal and illegal, to gain advantages in the election. Trump will use every power of the federal government at his disposal to win this, on top of dirty tricks, fraudulent investigations, etc.

Yeah, the election forecasters are, for the first time, explicitly adding caveats of “assuming there’s a free and fair election” and then pointing out they added the caveats for a reason…

4 Likes

7 Likes

I think the easiest way for Trump to steal the election is to declare a cutoff point in counting the votes when he’s ahead, then declare the rest invalid. There have been articles written about how this fits in to his strategy re: the USPS, and how small a number of choke points are needed to pull massive amounts of Democratic-leaning votes out of the tally. It’s that shockingly small number of choke points that worries me most–he doesn’t have to cancel the election, he doesn’t have to steal votes in more than half a dozen states, and he doesn’t have to even use guns. He just has to be at a point where he’s winning the state’s count, then declare that the hundreds of thousands of ballots waiting to be counted are all fraudulent and can’t be considered, and oops, the USPS people I just put in power threw them all in the lake so looks like we can only count what’s been counted.

8 Likes

I’m hoping for a devastating November loss, being dragged out of the White House to thousands of people’s jeers, multi-level prosecution from NY, SDNY, DC, VA et al that leaves him penniless and imprisoned just in time for an Epstein exit.

I want him to really know how much he’s loathed as the gasps his last.

13 Likes

As a Delaware resident (I believe Delaware is the only state without a standalone TV station or major airport), it’s pretty surreal to see all these major news networks running around Wilmington.

2 Likes