California hits 2 million confirmed COVID cases and counting, with a post-Christmas surge expected

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a post-Christmas surge expected

This wheel’s on fire, rolling down the road
Best notify my next of kin
This wheel shall explode


It took 292 days to get to 1 million infections on Nov. 11. Just 44 days later, the number topped 2 million.

Exponential growth is a hell of thing to try to wrap one’s head around. We’re in a situation where, even if people weren’t getting together for Christmas, which I fear they are, the numbers would still be getting insane. Now it’s going to be insane with a multiplier.


I’m glad that the article mentions this because most of the “COVID cases in California are out of control!!” stories don’t mention that very important detail. We’re certainly not doing great in CA but statistically we’re actually better than the country as a whole, which is really saying something about how bad it is in the U.S.

It’s important to present this data in the proper context because there are plenty of people around the country right now saying “what’s the point of doing a lockdown? California has one and they’ve still got more cases than anyone else!” The lockdown is probably the reason that we’re doing slightly better than average compared to other states and it would be great if more people knew that.


As always:


But one of our problems is that there are still many people treating lockdown like it’s a simple parental curfew, going about their days like it was pre-COVID, and I’m not counting the anti-mask faction.
Across the border in Tijuana, most households are gathering together tonight indoors and drinking and of course, masks come off. Most homes don’t have central heat and air, and many people are sensitive to cold, so windows stay shut without adequate ventilation.
Christmas Eve is bad enough, but New Year’s Eve is right on its heels.

I know it’s doom and gloom to say such things, but I have absolutely no confidence that enough of the population are going to do their part and forgo one holiday season within a bubble that is greater than their own household.

sigh cat


There’s likely to be a nominal surge from about the 5th to the 9th of January, that is really events from next week finally being reported. There will also be an actual surge covering the same time periods.

The numbers won’t look “normal” for three weeks at least.


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