Charlie Stross, the author of, amongst other things, the Laundry series, has, again, written about where we find ourselves at the start of 2022, and why it’s getting easier to predict some things (usually because there’s a very clear trend, and it’s typically bad), and harder to predict others — sometimes because this is, increasingly, the stupidest timeline, sometimes because there are two ways it could go and we don’t know which way it’s going to fall.
COVID brought this problem to the fore by generating a demand shock and also a labour shortage. It gets little news coverage but we’re seeing the biggest wave of labour unrest in the USA since the 1930s. In the UK it’s muted because the economy also took a battering from Brexit—an estimated 6% contraction since 2020—which COVID provides a convenient scapegoat for. But eventually the bills will come due. We may be entering a pre-revolutionary situation, or the ramp-up to a dictatorial clampdown (the latter is clearly in an advanced stage in both China and Russia). By 2031 it’s likely to be resolved in one direction or another; I can only hope, with a minimum of bloodshed.
Be gentle: he hosts his own blog, and it’s getting hammered.
Also, I am stealing the phrase “feco-chiropteroid crazy”