Continuing coronavirus happenings (Part 1)

[Ratel]

Russia:

'We're Expendable': Doctors In Russia Face Open Hostility And Mistrust

[LurksNoMore]

Seriously yikes. Let’s hope for the best, even if we fear the worst.

[Purplecat]

12 days ago, I posted this:

Ongoing coronavirus happenings

The world has now hit 4 million reported infections: What’s interesting is how linear the overall trend in case growth is . To get fro 1 million to 2 million, 2 million to 3 million and 3 million to 4 million, all took around 13 days. Given that the virus would grow exponentially in the absence of mitigating measures, this relentless linear growth is vaguely positive. [image]

The trend of almost completely linear growth has continued. Another 12 days, and we’re at 5 million.

The root cause of the linear trend is not reassuring, though. In this other post of mine, I talked about the emergence of new centres of transmission for the disease, in South America, South Asia, and the MENA region.

Ongoing coronavirus happenings

One of the things that I have been trying to keep up with is the emergence of the virus in countries that aren’t hitting the headlines yet. All the below are from the JHU tracker. For example, here’s Saudi Arabia- [image] It’s still in the rapid growth phase, as are a number of other countries in the middle east- we could well be seeing another international hotspot for the disease here, like in Europe and the US. Here are the stats for the other countries in this local cluster: Here’s Qata…

Well, that’s continuing. As the number of new cases falls in Europe and North America, these areas are still showing increases in the number of new infections each day. The shift of the impact towards the global south continues.

I also posted about Iran.

Ongoing coronavirus happenings

A round up of worrying headlines today: Second wave of infections appears as Iran pulls back on lockdown: Relevant graph- [image] Brazil continues to see surge with nearly 12,000 new cases in 1 day: 1 in 5 American workers have been made unemployed in the past months: And Peru begins to run out of medical oxygen as the country tackles Covid-19 and Dengue fever at the same time:

The cautionary tale continues. Relax the lockdown too early and you will get a second wave, one that is still increasing:

Finally, if the virus wasn’t a problem enough on its own, India and Bangladesh are now going to have to deal with the aftermath of a massive cyclone as well:

Amphan: Kolkata devastated as cyclone kills scores in India and Bangladesh

Where the virus will hamper disaster recovery efforts to deal with the cyclone, and the cyclone will hamper efforts to deal with the virus.

[DukeTrout]

@d_r

(Antibody tests given the last week of April show only 7.3% antibodies in the Stockholm region, which was the heaviest hit in Sweden. Tegnell had predicted 25-30% by now, mathematician Tom Britton had had models with the immunity rate as high as 50% by now. Tegnell points out that that is historical data, the rate now should be almost what he had predicted. Britton OTOH says his models might have been completely wrong, though also that people who were infected might either not get antibodies, or get them at a detectable level.)

So they were, in fact, pursuing a herd immunity strategy. And failing.

[d_r]

@DukeTrout

So they were, in fact, pursuing a herd immunity strategy

They continue to claim quite firmly, as they always have, that herd immunity was not their strategy, only a possible (and of course desirable) byproduct.

[DukeTrout]

I’ve noticed in sports that players rarely intend to foul other players, yet we still need officials and they still call fouls.

The fact that Tegnell is disappointed with a low positive antibody rate shows that, whether they call it by name or not, Sweden was pursuing a herd immunity strategy. The fact that Britton is flailing about for a reason why it isn’t working just shows that they messed up.

[Ratel]

@DukeTrout

The fact that Tegnell is disappointed with a low positive antibody rate shows that, whether they call it by name or not, Sweden was pursuing a herd immunity strategy.

I think they fell into the trap of “as long as our medical system isn’t overwhelmed we’ll be fine!” instead of “even if our medical system isn’t overwhelmed, we could lose hundreds of thousands of people to a particularly horrible death!”

[d_r]

@DukeTrout

The fact that Tegnell is disappointed with a low positive antibody rate shows that, whether they call it by name or not, Sweden was pursuing a herd immunity strategy.

That’s like saying that had NASA expressed disappointment with the flavor of Tang, that would have been proof that the space program’s main goal was tasty breakfast drinks. I don’t see any reason to doubt Sweden’s expressed intentions.

I think we should all be disappointed when high levels of infection, in any country, do not result in evidence of immunity. Sweden is a cautionary tale, since their level of social distancing, while nominally not locked down, is as high as that of many places which are locked down, and higher than many places which are now opening up.

[FGD135]

COVID-19 sparks new wearables to push the pandemic away

[vermes82]

Sweden becomes country with highest coronavirus death rate per capita

[DukeTrout]

@d_r

That’s like saying that had NASA expressed disappointment with the flavor of Tang, that would have been proof that the space program’s main goal was tasty breakfast drinks.

Oh, nonsense. That’s a terrible analogy. Don’t be insulting.

@d_r

I don’t see any reason to doubt Sweden’s expressed intentions.

I do. The numbers. They don’t lie. Whether it was intentional or mistakes were made, the numbers show the reality. Sweden gambled with either a herd immunity or benign neglect strategy (which amount to the same thing, in action), and it failed. Plain and simple.

[Ratel]

@d_r

Sweden is a cautionary tale, since their level of social distancing, while nominally not locked down, is as high as that of many places which are locked down

So why is their death toll worse than countries that didn’t lock down at all until it was too late and who did see their medical systems completely overwhelmed?

@vermes82

Sweden has 6.08 deaths per million inhabitants, higher than the UK, USA and Italy

That’s an honest question, and one Tegnell should be too busy desperately trying to figure out to give any interviews.

Some avenues for him to pursue:

1. Maybe actually reports of their voluntary measures are overinflated.
2. Perhaps people are not honestly reporting their behavior with respect to the voluntary measures.*
3. Possibly the outbreak has been especially bad in certain communities who didn’t understand or could not comply with the voluntary measures
4. …?

Seriously, worse than the US? I wonder under what circumstances he would contemplate resigning.

_{* I happen to know for a fact that while some people in Sweden were sheltering in place, others (in the same family) were making cross-country train trips for social calls.}

And a reminder…

@vermes82

Sweden has 6.08 deaths per million inhabitants, higher than the UK, USA and Italy

Sweden could still look good in the long run: absent a vaccine, or an amazing global social distancing response, the ultimate death toll will not be 6/million, it will be 10,000/million. But this strategy is obviously not working.

[FGD135]

Investigating Coronavirus Fakes And Disinfo? Here Are Some Tools For You -...

[chgoliz]

What in the world was that?

Who?
What?
When?
Where?
and Why?

[chgoliz]

Noun 1. berserker - one of the ancient Norse warriors legendary for working themselves into a frenzy before a battle and fighting with reckless savagery and insane fury.

Is this really what you’re trying to say about someone?

[mr_raccoon]

For someone who doesn’t like vegetables, he sure loves to serve up the word salad

Felicia Sonmez (feliciasonmez)

Brennan Murphy (brenonade)

[the_borderer]

@mr_raccoon

The good news is people could possibly buy an abandoned Bentley for 150k USD if they have the right connections.

A new Bentley Continental is only 200-300k USD. I’ll pay £50 and expect a full tank* and legal tyres.

* If I actually had the desire and means to own a Bentley, I would be pulling out the ICE and making it electric, if only to feel the hate from Jeremy Clarkson.

[alahmnat]

Jesse Rodriguez (JesseRodriguez)

CAP Action (CAPAction)

“What fresh hell is this” indeed.

[d_r]

@DukeTrout

That’s a terrible analogy.

No, it expresses exactly their point, that it is a desirable byproduct, not their stated goal.

I do. The numbers. They don’t lie.

The numbers don’t give intentions. Whether or not the leaders are pursuing the best possible strategy – and nobody knows what that is yet – they are by all accounts people of unimpeachable integrity, and so I am inclined to take these statements (if not their predictions) at face value.

In any event, I think you and I – and anyone reading these and our earlier posts – know where each of us stand on this, I don’t see any point in continuing what is essentially an argument about whether a certain label is appropriate.

@Ratel

So why is their death toll worse than countries that didn’t lock down at all until it was too late?

As far as I can tell from the Swedish newspapers, the high death toll is mainly in Stockholm; in other Swedish cities it doesn’t seem much higher than, say, Oslo. Moreover, a very high number of the deaths are of the elderly. I did read one editorial complaining that the Swedes are more willing to stick their aging parents/grandparents in residential care communities than their Scandinavian neighbors.

Tegnell should be too busy desperately trying to figure out to give any interviews.

In Sweden leadership in coronavirus policy is given wholly over to the State Epidemiologist, with little power to the politicians. This is the opposite of countries like the US where experts are blocked out of authority. Probably some intermediate position is optimal. Meanwhile, as the main leader on this he needs to be accessible to the public. And I expect that his department is trying to work out these things.

Maybe actually reports of their voluntary measures are overinflated.

These have been verified in the local (Norwegian) coverage, and believe me, Norway is not a fan of the Swedish approach. (In fact, Norway is trying to cut a deal with the other Nordic countries for free travel which would exclude Sweden.)

There are strange anomalies with the numbers in the various countries, and I think it is too easy to jump quickly to conclusions about them, especially when it is filtered through press reports. I think in the final analysis it is going to boil down to a few activities where Sweden did not distance enough, like gyms and bars; to the fact that Sweden’s national skiing holiday was a week earlier than that of other countries in the region; to really poor protocols in shared-living facilities; etc.

The thing is, even if Sweden’s policies were wildly successful in Sweden, they probably wouldn’t work in the US, just as the careful opening up of other European countries shouldn’t be used too cavalierly as a road map for the US.

I don’t see that we Americans have any moral high ground when judging the Swedish policies. I’m personally hoping I can avoid passing through Sweden on my way home, but I also recognize that the low infection rates both where I am now and at home are not necessarily due to more intelligent political decisions, but rather to a whole host of circumstances.

(ETA, to avoid multiple posts):

@vermes82

Sweden becomes country with highest coronavirus death rate per capita

That’s pretty misleading. That is just over the last 7 days. The UK is still 50% higher overall. But, the Telegraph is always happy to give Boris Johnson some help.

[d_r]

I am trying to say a nice thing about Symone Sanders. I guess I have to apologize for being the first person to ever be hyperbolic on Boing Boing?

(As it happens, there is some disagreement over whether “berserker” has negative connotations; it doesn’t in my current neighborhood. However, I absolutely don’t regret any negativity in my depiction of the attacker, whose behavior was angry and irresponsible.)